A 33/1 place, the Dubai World Cup winner, and an easy scorer at 7/2 in Ireland last weekend suggests I am already in top gear for the new turf flat season (unlike some yards I could mention), but in a sport where you never get a rest, we move on with the first classics at Newmarket a matter of weeks away.
Before we get down to the racing, as always I have cherry picked a few news items to discuss with the first being the unsurprising decision that bookmakers will basically continue to make their own starting prices for the races long term, after a stop gap scenario while rails bookmakers have been absent thanks to covid. Mathematically, I can’t pretend it doesn’t make good sense with the on-course market a sliver of the overall bets placed each day, but I can’t pretend the overall concept doesn’t concern me, because it does. Anyone who thinks the main bookmakers are daft needs a wake up call, and they have very cleverly made sure the base line over round per race is now more favourable to the punter which they use as the headline act, but recent analysis by the HBF paints a slightly different story. Yes, if you fancy the bigger priced outsiders, you may well steal a point or two, but nearer the head of the market (let’s say the first three in the betting), prices are now shorter and let’s face facts, where do most of the winners come from? Offering an extra quid or two to the occasional winner at 33/1 or bigger is more than balanced out by taking 50p or so off the thousands of bets struck at the head of the market, a case of mugging Peter to pay Paul if ever there has been one. And something that needs a careful eye over the months and years ahead. Personally, I fail to comprehend the equation of protecting the gambler via loss and deposit restrictions (already coming in to place by the way) allegedly to protect us all on one hand, while reducing odds and restricting or closing accounts that even look as if they could be profitable on the other – go figure.
Amazingly, that is pretty much the end of the negative news this week as we move on and I have tasked myself with one horse for your trackers for the new flat season – not as simple as that may sound. Do I go for an unexposed juvenile, or a far more obvious Classic contender, or even an improving handicapper – decisions, decisions. I have to say that Aiden O’Brien’s 1000 Guineas favourite Santa Barbara came under serious consideration as I feel she is an absolute machine and will be difficult to stop ant Newmarket and possibly Epsom too, but she is hardly unexposed or a shock selection, and I have decided to go for something a little bit more adventurous. Step forward unraced two-year-old Bold And Loyal, a son of Frankel out of Birdwood (by Oasis Dream) who I am told has set a few hearts racing at the Sir Michael Stoute yard in Newmarket. Yet to receive a race entry we cannot add him to our trackers just yet, but apparently they think a lot of him and although he will not be rushed along, I am pretty confident he will win a race or two this season and could even surprise first time out when they decide to send him to the track.
Continuing with good news, and I would just love to know what the Gosden’s saw in Benoit De La Sayette that persuaded them to sign him up as their first apprentice in close to twenty years? Whatever it was, they are already being proved right after the youngster steered home Haqeeqy to take the Lincoln last weekend under the coolest of rides, and he certainly looks to have a future ahead of him. In my totally biased opinion, he has every chance of going to the very top with his stable full of top class talent which eh may struggle to get a ride on at a racecourse, but will undoubtedly climb on to when they work on the Newmarket gallops. I am no jockey (horses everywhere will breathe a sigh of relief), but surely getting to know the very best can only help his education and if he keeps his head down and his nose clean, we may well have seen a future champion jockey at Doncaster last weekend.
On to the racing…with a distinct Irish feel to it
Saturday
Fairyhouse 2.20pm
A disappointing five runner turn out considering there is still plenty of give in the ground but the top two do stand out in what really ought to be little more than a match assuming clear rounds, of course. Elimay looks the class act here with a win at Naas in the same class as today, as well as a rock solid second to Colreevy at Cheltenham when sent off the 6/5f. Although turned over by her stable companion that say there was close to three lengths back to the third, though we must get carried away just because it was Cheltenham form, and it wasn’t the strongest race seen at the Festival by any means. Mount Ida is clearly best in at the weights thanks to the six pounds she gets from the Mullins mare but her last win was over fences and over further, so there is no guarantee this will play to her strengths. Her last outing over hurdles saw her finish twelve lengths behind Colreevy at Thurles in January when receiving four pounds which suggests she has an awful lot to find today regardless of the handicapper’s opinions and although anything can happen at this stage of the season, Elimay looks the more likely winner to me.
Fairyhouse 4.40pm
Bumpers don’t appeal to everyone but a quick look back at the stats for bumpers here and I note a success rate of over 65% if you stick to the first two in the market and a small profit to boot. Eleven runners have been declared including the Willie Mullins trained Brooklynn Glory, who has to give three pounds or more to all her rivals thanks to successes at Listowel and then Cork. Undoubtedly talented and in a yard who are incredibly successful in these events she is still worthy of attention, yet six-year-olds have a one in fourteen strike rate in such events here which is enough to put me off. Sadly, once you have seen the stats you can’t unsee them, and with the top two in the betting and five-year-olds the only profitable age group (and massively so, too), I am sort of pushed toward Party Central who heads the tissue and is the right age. Trained by Denise Foster (I am not one for nicknames), she was last seen coming home a neck adrift of Grangee at Leopardstown (Brooklynn Glory seven and three-quarter lengths fourth) when the lack of a clear run cost her dearly, though I do expect it to be a lot closer this afternoon on the drier ground. Stats apart, I do like the Cromwell pairing of Derrylinda and Limerick Lace who should go well in a race well worth watching for future reference with numerous hurdles winners sure to come out of this field.
Cork 2.35pm
Something to really get your teeth in to with fifteen runners for this Listed sprint over the six furlongs here, so let’s start with the draw and it appears that a high draw is the only place to be, historically at least (though it is nowhere near as cast in stone as some will have you believe). Lustown Baba is best in at the weights on official ratings but has to roll out of the seven stall, which although not disastrous, can’t be seen as a good thing. She is the in-form option after rounding off last season with two wins at The Curragh, but she hasn’t been seen since mid-October and has finished seventh on debut, and fifth in March on her seasonal reappearances to date, suggesting she takes a bit of getting fit. Downforce came under very serious consideration after the son of Fast Company scored at The Curragh earlier this season, and we do know he has race fitness on his side, but the five stall could be a little low unless we get plenty more rain in which case he comes right back in to calculations. A Step Too Far looks overpriced to me and I expect a better run than your average 33/1 chance but if push comes to shove, then Make A Challenge will be the one, but only to the smallest of stakes. He does have a lot of weight to carry which is the negative but is well drawn in the fifteen stall, and did win first time out last season, so they can get him ready when they want to. Add the highest official rating of 110, and the fact that he is four pounds better off with Lustown Baba for less than four lengths last time out, and he looks to have as good a chance as any in a tricky race to even try to solve.
Cork 4.20pm
On paper this is a really tight contest, but it is another Listed race and due the respect of a mention here. Three of the four runnings of this race have gone to the favourite which will be good news for followers of Princess Zoe who looks sure to go off at the head of the market. Four wins in a row in Ireland last season over a mile and a half to two miles one furlong were capped off with success at Longchamp in the Group One Prix Du Cadran and a highly respectable fourth to Subjectivist in the Prix Royal Oak, and with the winner hacking up in the Dubai World Cup last weekend, the form looks even better. Two negatives spring to mind, namely the mile and a half trip and the fact that she is yet to win on her seasonal returns to action, but the truth is this ought to be little more than a stepping stone to better events as the season progresses and you have to assume she is ready to run – otherwise why bring her here for a relatively minor prize.
Haydock 3.15pm
The obligatory Saturday handicap which regular readers may know can be successful on rare occasions, but is not really my cup of tea. Four runnings so far have seen winners at 8/1, 12/1, 16/1, and 11/2 meaning nothing is off the table, and although Jonjo O’Neill has won this twice, he doesn’t have a runner for 2021 so that is a useless stat I’m afraid. As you know, I don’t like handicaps therefore I rarely watch them, meaning I don’t have one that has slipped under the radar, or a good thing that hasn’t been seen at his or her best ahead of today, so I have to simplify things further and look at their handicap marks. My rule is simple enough – try not to ask a horse to do more than it has achieved in the past, and I start with their official ratings. Of the seventeen declared (the maximum field, by the way), I like to look for a horse who is at least potentially well handicapped i.e., they have won or gone close off a similar mark in the last 12 months, and in this case that brings me to Supakalanistic who looks to have place chances at least at odds of 9/1 or bigger. His second off a mark just three pounds lower over this sort of trip at Doncaster in late February reads well enough, and although jockey Jordan Nailor claimed three that day, they have put amateur Zak Baker on board claiming three this afternoon, making him as well handicapped as any in my eyes. Small Present is improving all the time but is priced accordingly, while Ashtown Lad intrigues after a wind operation and is another who ought to be thereabouts at the finish.
Sunday
Plumpton 3.26pm
Although I am averse to the idea of a handicaps being called a Champion Hurdle of any kind, I did my first live radio interview at Plumpton in the dim and distant past and still hold a bit of a candle for the track. Add the fact that my good friend Graham Strong sponsors the 4.00pm Strong Flavours Catering Handicap Chase (he does the on course catering which a) I highly recommend and b) I’m now hoping for a free lunch), and this race just had to be covered. So, what do I make of the Sussex Champion Hurdle, a two mile class two handicap that has attracted a decent field albeit just the seven of them, which is a blow for the each way punters. We all know by now that Paul Nicholls had a Cheltenham to forget by his lofty standards but that was as much down to the Irish battalions as a lack of quality in his contenders and I can no reason not to side with Diego Du Charmil here. The stable have won two of the last five runnings of this race so he will know exactly the sort needed though he does have an awful lot of weight, I admit. Luckily, Angus Cheleda takes a useful seven pounds off his back this afternoon which I hope will make all the difference. Yet to win this season, he has placed a couple of times in far better company including a third to Silver Streak in Listed class at Kempton, and if he arrives here fit and firing and handles the track at the first attempt, he ought to prove difficult to stop.
Cork 3.30pm
Three miles over fences await them here in a race that seems to favour punters over the years with no winners bigger than 7/1 and the majority at or very near to the head of the market. Seven and eight year olds hold sway historically and if that statistic holds up, we can immediately get rid of two of the five horse field – easy this isn’t it? For over £17,000 to the winner this isn’t the strongest line-up ever assembled, but one horse has to win it and I have come down on the side of Castlebrook who could yet prove to be far better than we have seen to date, though if the going dries out don’t be surprised to see him pulled last minute. A lightly raced point to point winner, he has only had the three starts over regulation fences, winning at Wexford and ending with a 32 length third to Faugheen. Off from December 2019 until his return over hurdles in February, he went off an unbacked 28/1 shot that day and ran as if the outing would do him the world of good, which came as no great shock after over a year off the track. Sure to strip fitter here, he is only a tentative suggestion but at a forecast 9/2 I just can’t resist a quid or two, with Spyglass Hill the one it looks as if he has to beat.
Fairyhouse 2.50pm
This is the first running of this Grade Two Novice Hurdle meaning no historical data to work with, but luckily for us we have some decent sorts lining up in the hunt for the 35,000 Euros in total prize money. On a day when outsiders are jumping off the page to me (we will only know if that is a good or a bad thing after the results are in), I do feel Thedevilscoachman is the one they all have to beat, but he can make the odd mistake, and at a forecast 7/2 he seems plenty short enough in the betting to me. Echoes In Rain, M C Muldoon, and Grand Bornand represent the Willie Mullins yard and all have chances but I will take a chance with Desir Du Large each way at a double figure price. Trained by Joseph O’Brien and with Rachel Blackmore in the saddle, the £68,000 purchase has clearly has his issues, but he did win his bumper here in 2018 before a long sabbatical before a return at Naas. 40/1 that day, he outran those odds with a ten length third to Echoes In Rain, and it is noted connections are happy enough to take on his conqueror again this afternoon. Hopefully he will improve hand over fist for his first start over hurdles, and if that is the case, he could be a far bigger player than his odds imply.
Fairyhouse 3.20pm
Mare only over two and a half miles but this is a Grade One final and a race won by none other than Champion Hurdler Honeysuckle when last run in 2019. Willie Mullins has won four of the last seven runnings which is a stand out stat, though he has four entered here which muddies the waters somewhat. It may be the ex-smoker in me, but I have followed the career of Gauloise with interest, and the daughter of Samum has rewarded me with a couple of wins at Thurles. Not at her best at Cheltenham she needs to bounce back today, but as that isn’t guaranteed I will jump ship and put my money on stable companion Royal Illusion instead. No spring chicken at the age of nine, she won her maiden hurdle last time out at Leopardstown but did so very impressively, and she could well surprise a few of them here. All in all, this looks a very decent contest and one to watch for future winners with the likes of Roseys Hollow, Rhythm Divine, and Atlantic Fairy all in with a shout, and I wouldn’t blame anyone who decides to watch this without any financial involvement.
Fairyhouse 3.50pm
Same trip but not restricted to mares next, and one look at the tissue suggests that it is as wide open as any race this afternoon barring the handicaps. Gentlemansgame was a selection of mine when runner up at 12/1 last time out and seems sure to go well as he gains in experience, but I wonder if his future might lie over fences and although he should still go close, I prefer the credentials of Grand Paradis who holds that experience edge. Three wins from four starts with two of those over hurdles, the grey bypassed Cheltenham which may in turn reap rich rewards this afternoon, and after a thirteen length hard held success at Thurles in February, he seems to be on an upward curve. This is his hardest task to date, but at 6/1 he looks an each way bet to at least consider, though once again this is a race perhaps best watched for future reference and I am positive there are plenty of future winners in this line-up.
Fairyhouse 5.00pm
A good looking novice chase to end our weekend with and one that ought to go to Flogas Novice Chase third Andy Dufresne who looks the more reliable of the horses near the head of the market. Although put in his place by Monkfish and Latest Exhibition that day, this field looks a few pounds short of that standard and if his jumping continues to improve he may have too much toe for all of these. Asterion Forlange could make fools of us all with a clear round after his third to Chantry House at Cheltenham, but his CV includes falls at Limerick and Punchestown from just the five starts over fences, and for that reason alone he is hard to recommend. Scarlet And Dove is another to consider and seems adaptable regarding trip or race tactics and in receipt of seven pounds all round, and gets in here as an each way alternative at a double figure price, but all in all I am just about happy with my selection in yet another fiercely competitive contest.
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Sean’s Suggestions:
Princess Zoe 4.20pm Cork Saturday
Diego Du Charmil 3.26pm Plumpton Sunday
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