As some of you may know I have been working with World of Sport (see the podcast link) for many years now and my “boss” (Ron Robinson) has been annotating all the horses that he deems to have been gambled on each day with some amazing results. I am not here to do his marketing for him, but it did get me wondering – how much money does it actually take to change the price of a horse these days? Those of us of a certain age (thing grey or very little hair) always read of thousands put on in a stable gamble and millions paid out – but are modern bookmakers far too shrewd to ever fall victim again? I can only speak for myself, but unless I drive to my nearest betting shop, I struggle to get more than a tenner on without being knocked back on-line – or am I the only one? My point is, reading about horses backed from 25/1 to 7/2 and winning is one thing – but was that just the owner having £50 on or was there really a concerted gamble of note – and my biggest issue there is we only ever have the word of the bookmaker without an ounce of proof – and I wouldn’t trust them to tell me their real name if asked.
Elsewhere this week we have seen the embarrassment of numerous meetings called off due to unsafe ground and although I am no gardener (or groundsperson), it does seem a bit strange. I have seen various suggestions from grass eating weevils to watering on top of firm ground but what concerns me the most (yet again), is punters being kept in the dark – the authorities need to come clean, explain the issue, and what they are going to do about it - then scribes like me can shut up and sit back as they put the solution in to play.
Lastly, we need to celebrate the passing of Lester Piggott, in many eyes the greatest jockey of all time – though I am quite aware that each generation will see things very differently. If you want his rides you would assume (quite rightly) that he would be constantly suspended (his whip style would not be condoned today), but he was a highly intelligent horseman and I have no doubt he would have adapted as necessary – though I doubt he would have been too enamoured with the current set up. Sadly, his jail time for tax evasion (or avoidance, whatever the difference may be), seemed to see him alienated from the British public, and after he retired to Switzerland we didn’t see as much of him as any of us would like. Although a very private person overall, when we look at the state of British racing today, I do have to wonder if his ideas and input to the sport he pretty much owned at one time are sorely needed now, more than ever.
Tired of reading – hear my opinions here on the weekly podcast
On to the racing…..
Friday
3.10pm Epsom
This is not a race I like one bit despite being a huge fan of Pyledriver, who took this last year under Martin Dwyer. Unfortunately, my fellow Evertonian is out injured leaving Frankie Dettori to ride, and although you can’t call that a bad thing, martin does know the horse better than any other jockey. A length fourth to Shahryar in the Group One Sheema Classic in Dubai in March, and picking up over £222,000 in the process, he may have too much speed in the finish for Manobo who stays two miles and has never raced at this track which I see as a huge negative.
4.30pm Epsom
The Oaks is the fillies equivalent of the Derby (as many of you will know), but if Emily Upjohn is anywhere near as good as connections think, then she ought to land the odds for favourite backers here. Three races have seen victories at Wolverhampton (by a neck as a two-year-old), before two impressive wins at Sandown (by 10 lengths) and finally in the Musidora Stakes at York (by six lengths). She oozes class and is hard to oppose, though the fact that the second favourite is also trained by the Gosden’s (Nashwa) tells you all you need to know about the strength in depth with their fillies this season. Godolphin’s With the Moonlight may be a spot of each way value at a double figure price, while Tuesday is expected to improve for the step up in trip but has failed to impress me in both the English and Irish 1000 Guineas.
5.10pm Epsom
I cannot pretend not to be gutted to see Oscula priced at 13/8 or so for this as I had hoped for a far better price and an each way bet – how bitterly disappointing for us all. Last time out the daughter of Galileo Gold came unstuck when failing to take to the dirt in Saudi Arabia (Riyadh), but that was a Group Three – and this is a Listed race. A winner at Brighton, Epsom, and Deauville last season, she ran her best races in defeat with a third in the Group One Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp the stand out for me, and if she is in that sort of form now, she will certainly take all the beating.
Saturday
Epsom 2.35pm
One again I am thinking along different lines to everyone else as I cannot work out why Bashrikova trades at 5/2 yet Mrs Fitzherbert is as big as 5/1 in places? The two of them met on their reappearances at Goodwood with my selection coming out on top despite running in to traffic problems, and as they meet at level weights again why should that form be reversed? Both are entitled to come on for the run but the Haggas filly was sent off a 7/2 shot, suggesting she was fit enough to run to form, while the Morrison filly was a 12/1 chance – implying she may well improve considerably for the race. She showed a decent turn of foot and will stay further in time, and at the current prices she certainly seems to be the better value of the two.
Epsom 3.10pm
I would have preferred more runners for each-way purposes but we have to face the cards we are dealt and all we will get is a place one and two with six participants. Although I can understand why the hat-trick seeking Modern News heads the betting, he is stepping up form Listed class after an easy win at Windsor and this is a bigger ask. Odds-on isn’t for me and if he wins, he does so without my money on his back, and I will be having a very small each way bet on stable companion Zakouski, the outsider of the field. He is rated 1lb superior to the jolly according to the handicappers, and although without a win this season, he was third in the Group Two Singspiel Stakes and then tenth in the Group One Jebel Hatta, both at Meydan in Dubai. I can’t pretend he was at his best that day, because he clearly wasn’t, but his draw was a valid excuse, and he should do better here.
Epsom 3.45pm
Time for the obligatory looks deep in to past performances as we hunt down a decent bet in this competitive sprint, so here we go. Facts from the last 24 runnings (my database): All winners came home in the first 14 last time out, no winners shorter than 5/2, no three-year-old winners, only one over the age of eight, no winners drawn between four and seven, only one winner carried more than nine stone nine, and only one rated above 108. Using those facts, we can remove a grand total (no laughing) of 9 horses, or less than half the field. I have then looked at trainer form for this particular race and I will be taking a risk (to small stakes) on Tone The Barone at huge odds. Trainer Stuart Williams has had 10 runners in this race, winning with two and placing with another two which is a mighty fine record, and although the horse may be better on the all-weather, he is potentially well-handicapped here, having won off marks as high as 105 (in March this year at Wolverhampton), yet he runs off just 94 on the grass today. Add a decent high draw in the 19 stall and he looks to have a better chance than his odds imply, though be warned – he needs to transfer his all-weather improvement to the turf to have any chance.
Epsom 4.30pm
I am delighted to report that this looks a decent enough Derby field, and for a race many are saying is a throwback to the past when mile and a half horses were far more relevant for breeding purposes, it’s good to see the Blue Riband event of the Flat season getting back to something near to past glories. Although I accept that Desert Crown probably arrives with the best credentials after winning the Dante Stakes at York by over three lengths despite looking as if the race would do him the world of good, 7/4 is too skinny for me and this is not the one horse race the betting would have you believe. Aidan O’Brien is mob-handed as usual and has three runners here, headed (presumably) by Stone Age, much improved as a three-year-old with easy wins at Nava and Leopardstown, and a serious player here with any further improvement. West Wind Blows has done nothing wrong in winning both starts for the Crisford’s and may mount a big challenge, while Charlie Appleby also has three in here, with Nations Pride perhaps the best of them after wins at Meydan and Newmarket this season, and a sparkling piece of work last week that confirmed his participation. It looks a cracker on paper (and I may not have even mentioned the winner), but decisions have to be made, and I just get the feeling Stone Age may be the one. With recent rain the mile and a half will take a little more stamina here, and I can see him outstaying Nations Pride and Desert Crown in that order for my “pin stickers” one two three today.
Sean Suggestions:
Mrs Fitzherbert each way 2.35pm Epsom
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