From the sublime to the ridiculous, and after scrapping around last weekend (rather successfully if I do say so myself with The Cob getting a favourable mention before winning at 25/1 and Aye Right getting caught close home to land the each way bets plus winners in Ireland), we have the longest list of races to get through in a long time this weekend, assuming they all go ahead, of course.
Before then (and in far less words than any of them truly deserve) we need to go over the news and for me it has been a very sad week. We bid farewell to Milton Bradley who has taken an early retirement – at the age of 86! When you get older it feels like you have lost an old friend when trainers retire (and none of us are getting any younger), though his comment about. Lack of opportunities for lower class horses flies in the face of some views who feel there is already too much dross to cope with – though in my opinion all owners deserve a chance to race their horse somewhere regardless of grade or prize money as we all have our stations in life I suppose. Sadder still was the retirement of Michael Clower, long term racing scribe and one of the best around for many years. I have been lucky enough to spend time with him at the races in South Africa in recent years where he once told me how much he liked a piece I had written about the Durban July. Although glowing with pride at the time, I still suspect he had me confused with the much younger and more hirsute Andrew Hawkins, but until proved otherwise I will take my claim to fame to the grave. Even worse was the passing after a short illness of Paul Haigh – in my opinion a proper old school journalist who loved his work and will be sorely missed by many in the racing fraternity. Examples of his work appear on the Racing Post website (though I am far from convinced they have bothered to pick his very best), and again I only met him in later life. We weren’t close but we shared the odd night out and I considered him a friend and one that I will most certainly miss if and when we ever get to go racing again.
Meanwhile, do go to https://www.racingtv.com/news/all-smiles-as-eklat-de-rire-books-festival-ticket if you are can to see what can only be described as jockey Kevin Brouder defying the laws of gravity (Sir Isaac who?). Although he only came home a well beaten fourth (I tipped the winner, by the way), it was an extraordinary feat of horsemanship to even stay on board and reminds us just how skilled jockeys really are whatever the losers may say on social media when they accuse any of them of deliberately jumping off!
On to the weekend’s racing and make no mistake – it’s tough to call!
Saturday Racing:
1.50pm Sandown
An all chase card from Sandown thanks to the ground has seen me rushing about making last second changes to the race order and we start with a two and a half mile Novice Chase but make no mistake, this trip will take some getting in the rain soddened ground. Some pretty classy sorts have taken this over the years including Oscar Whisky, Bristol De Mai, Top Notch, Defi Du Seuil, and last season, Itchy Feet for trainer Olly Murphy. An exact 50/50 split of favourite to non-favourite over the last ten years but nothing bigger than 7/1, so common sense suggests most will look near to the head of the market. Four of those winners came from the Nicky Henderson stable, and four were ridden by Daryl Jacob (two for Nicky and two for others) and both trainer and jockey are in action again in 2021. Nicky sends Dame De Compagnie here for her second start over fences after an impressive debut at Ayr over shorter, a trip that would not have been her ideal based on her hurdling exploits. Upped in distanced today and on ground she clearly handles, she looks a major player here and made it to my shortlist. Alan King’s Messire Des Obeaux has one added race of experience after winning twice at Wincanton under Daryl Jacob, both over this trip, but in my view, he has to find a little bit more to succeed in this company. Hitman heads the early markets for Paul Nicholls and is held in high regard at home, but he was put in his place by Allmankind here over shorter in December and tries this trip for the first time which is a concern on this ground, and Dan Skelton would know where he stands with the jolly and seems happy to take him on with Shan Blue who is another yet to be beaten over the larger obstacles. All in all, a cracker of a race and one I hope can go the way of Nico de Boinville’s mount, with Sporting John another to consider in a race that will rattle the ante post Cheltenham markets upon completion.
2.20pm Sandown
Just the five runners but a decent line-up and it will be interesting to see who is spot on for today and who is having a final prep ahead of Cheltenham which is just over a month away now. This should have been run at Cheltenham last weekend so I am not sure how much weight we should put on past successes, but the fact is Santini won the race last season and is back for another try in 2021. I do sometimes think I am the only one who thinks he isn’t as good as they crack him up to be which is a bit unfair of me, I suppose – but his three wins from eight starts over fences backs me up a little and suggests he is good – but perhaps not quite out of the top drawer. The going is the key to this with any luck so a quick bit of maths shows Bristol De Mai with a 75% success rate on heavy ground, Lake View Lad 37%, Native River 0% (surprisingly just the one start on heavy ground), Santini 100% (one start over hurdles), Saint Calvados 75%, and Yala Enki 30%, so the sad fact is, all of them will handle the going but, and despite him being best in at the weights, I will put a line through Saint Calvados who has never won beyond two and a quarter miles. Using statistics is dangerous when you remember the change of track but no eleven year old has won this since See You Sometime in 2006 so that puts pay to Lake View Lad, Native River, and Yala Enki, and as I have already admitted I don’t like Santini, I am only left with Bristol De Mai. From what I have read, if he wins here he goes for the Gold Cup, if not it may well be the Grand National instead, but he is reported to be in rude health, handles the ground as well as any, and could well beat Santini in to second to land the forecast as well.
2.30pm Wetherby
Another transferred from Cheltenham but not the race today that we expected to see unfortunately – though we ought to have an odds against favourite this week at the very least. Just to make life that bit more interesting we have some decent chasers in the line-up over hurdles and have to second guess who is out for a run and who is here to get competitive? It really is one of those races where you have to make a decision and a difficult one at that with multiple winner Main Fact just one that you have to think could get involved if we ignore one bad run last time out after nine consecutive successes. He is one to consider backing in running at a huge price to small stakes as he can get detached and will no doubt be available at far bigger than the 11/2 currently forecast, but of the hurdlers, I narrowly prefer On The Blind Side. The winner of two of his four starts this season he was last seen beating Lil Rockerfeller on similar ground at Market Rasen, but he is priced at 3/1f and this does look potentially a tougher race to win. Ballyoptic came in for some serious consideration for Nigel Twiston-Davies who will have them ticking over nicely for their next targets but it is noted that his son Sam rides Lake View Lad for the first time which sent the little grey cells in to overdrive. Why would Sam choose the eleven year old over his father’s charge unless he felt he had a better chance? Last seen beating Santini a length at Aintree over fences, he has won on heavy albeit three years ago, and seems as good as ever, and at 14/1 a little each way bet may yet pay out for his followers today ,including me.
2.40pm Musselburgh
I have never been a big fan of using the word “Champion” in a handicap as a purist who thinks level weights is the only way to determine the very best, but this is the Scottish Champion Chase, and deserves its place as our handicap of the week. To the amusement of those of us down South the going is expected to be Good to Soft making it the best going of the weekend unless you count the all-weather, so we should be in for a competitive contest. Only nine runnings to work with statistically but Paul Nicholls has won the last three (with different horses) and the rest is a bit of a muddle – varying ages, weights, ratings and odds so it would appear that all things are possible this afternoon. This season Paul is responsible for the ex-French Rockadenn who has had a wind operation since his last run when second at Haydock to Paul’s Sir Psycho and sports a tongue tie to help his breathing as well. Bought for £58,000 straight after his Haydock outing, he hasn’t been seen since but it seems fair to suspect Paul thinks he is well handicapped to throw him in here for his first run for the stable, and with a three out of three record over the smaller French fences, he could well be the one they all have to beat this afternoon. Favourites do well here as well with a three from nine record and as I write that honour falls to Rikoboy for Dr Richard Newland after he took a Class Four at Market Rasen by ten lengths last time out. He did win very easily there but the handicapper took note and has put him up thirteen pounds which may be harsher than necessary, and I am not convinced he will prove up to the task, though for anyone looking for an each way alternative, I suggest I’m To Blame who should strip fitter for his return eighth here in January and is undoubtedly one of the better handicapped here if recapturing his better form.
1.05pm Leopardstown
Willie Mullins 6-4 The Rest when it comes to this contest, though none since Let’s Dance in 2017, so we can be sure he will want to get his hands on the trophy once again. Naturally he fields four here to confuse me further, though it looks like Gaillard Du Mesnil is his first pick according to the betting. A frustrating run of for second places in a row (three in France) were finally broken with a close to ten length success here last time out over two furlongs shorter, but he wasn’t stopping that day and this increased trip may even bring improvement. A hood is added for the first time here which seems interesting and suggests a lack of concentration, but he is undoubtedly a decent sort and looks the one they all have to beat. With plenty of early pace in the field we can be sure that stamina will be tested and that could well suit Cape Gentleman as much as any here having won over two miles on the flat, but in the search for a spot of value my lucky pin has come down on Gentlemans Game as an each way alternative. A comfortable point to point winner at Curraghmore in October last year he was then sold for 250,000 Euros and paid a very small percentage of that outlay back with a maiden hurdle romp at Cork on his only outing under rules to date. That was just an education to be fair and he steps up from two to two and three-quarter miles here, and if he gets the trip as expected he should go close and at a double figure price to boot.
1.35pm Leopardstown
Only three runnings of this and two different winners, Min twice and more recently Chacun Pour Soi, all three of course trained by (you guessed it), Willie Mullins. Both of that pair are back in 2021 which makes life even more interesting, with the year younger Chacun Pour Soi trading at a skinny odds on price. Wins this season at Cork and then here at Leopardstown have seen the nine-year-old shorten to a ridiculous 11/10 for the Champion Chase in March, and he needs to win this and do so easily to justify the hype. Min is the obvious danger but there is no value there, and I will add one of my silly forecasts into the equation with Chacun Pour Soi to beat Fakir D’oudaries, the rank outsider here but far better suited to this trip than the three miles he was pulled up over last time out.
2.10pm Leopardstown
It makes me feel old to see that Flemenstar won this in 2012, but he has been followed by some other decent sorts including Un De Sceaux, Douvan, and Footpad, all of them odds on and no need to tell you the trainer (WM). Odds on again for the same trainer this year (yawn) with the talented if difficult to pronounce Energumene the one they all have to get past judged on his wins at Gowran Park and then Naas where he came home clear of Captain Guinness. He ought to be the one to beat and I will put him in an odds on acca but he has also made an each way market for the others and I will take a risk on Felix Desjy here for Gordon Elliott and Jack Kennedy with the stable coming back to form slowly. He was a well beaten third behind both Franco De Port and Darver Star (who are both in this field) last time out, but he went off far too fast for his own good that day and will be a different animal if he can be ridden with some restraint which seems eminently possible with the favourite a likely front runner, and at 11/1 he could well hit a place with a clear round and at price he is well worthy of some serious consideration.
3.15pm Leopardstown
I now the going is heavy but what a poor turnout for the Irish Champion Hurdle, perhaps yet another example of how Cheltenham is sadly becoming the be all and end all of the National Hunt season. Honeysuckle won this last year with her mare’s allowance an added bonus, beating Darver Star by half a length with the added weights surely the difference. The same terms apply to mares now, and although not odds on at present, it seems certain that Honeysuckle will go off favourite once again, with the added bonus that if she wins this easily, she may well take Epatante and the rest on in the Champion Hurdle at the festival. Unbeaten in all of her ten races (starting with a point to point in April 2018, bought for 110,000 Euros, and the winner of over £384,000 since with more to come), she is impossible to oppose in receipt of her allowance, but she does have some stiff opposition. Sharjah is no mug and came home second in the 2020 Champion hurdle and deserves plenty of respect as does the talented if fragile Saldier who is the real dark horse here who cold yet be the one to serve it up to the jolly and is seen by myself (if no one else) as her biggest danger.
Sunday Racing:
1.40pm Leopardstown
Just the six runners here and a feeling that Gordon Elliott’s Quilixios has frightened plenty of them off. Unbeaten after three starts, one in France and the others at Punchestown and Down Royal, he came home 20 lengths clear last time out at the prohibitive odds of 1/16 but there has to be a big question mark about what exactly he beat? The runner up that day has admittedly won a maiden hurdle but the third was making his hurdling debut and the fourth was the 50/1 rag, while the time was a huge 33 seconds slower than standard. He could well be the real deal but hasn’t been seen in three months and no doubt has even bigger fish to fry, and on Sunday I will be backing Youmdor instead at odds against in the never ending search for value. A very easy winner of a maiden hurdle at Gowran Park on his Irish debut he was going to follow up with ease at Fairyhouse before falling at the last, but sports a hood this afternoon to help him focus and should be the one to serve it up to the favourite who seems unlikely to get things all his own way up front, with two other Mullins horses to take him on if necessary, as teams tactics get employed.
2.10pm Leopardstown
Odds on fever over in Ireland on Sunday by the look of it as Appreciate It goes back in to battle looking to maintain his position at the head of the Supreme Novice’ Hurdle market. Trained by Willie Mullins, who looks in for a good weekend, he was second in the Champion Bumper last season and has won both his starts over hurdles this season at Cork and then here over course and distance. His trainer has won seven of the last eight renewals of this race which looks a telling statistic in the circumstances, but he has got some decent opposition who will at least give him a proper test. Ballyadam seemed to be thought of as the second coming after winning his first two of the season before coming home sixteen lengths adrift of the jolly in late December, but he would have been a lot closer had he not made a mess of so many hurdles, and it is interesting to note that they seem happy enough to take the winner on again this afternoon. Add in the fact that the Elliott yard were out of sorts then and are coming back to their best now and he could be a challenger here, though on pure form he obviously has his work cut out. Appreciate It may have something to fear from his stable companions as well with Blue Lord likely to be better suited by the return to this trip, and Mr Coldstone a totally unknown quantity after winning a Tramore maiden on his only start over hurdles so far but with any amount up his sleeve if needed, and on his first start in over two and a half years.
3.10pm Leopardstown
Another big gun appears here as Monkfish looks to show us once again just how good he is and why he is the most likely to win the Festival Chase (RSA as was), and I suspect even the none too generous 2/1 for that contest will disappear if he wins here as expected. Looking for negatives there is a chance this trip is on the short side for him to be seen at his peak, and he can make the odd error (jumping left being one of them), but he oozes class and is sadly impossible to oppose. Second favourite Latest Exhibition was put in his place by the selection last time and with a clear round each, there is no reason to suspect he can reverse that form, while Asterion Forlange has fallen on his last two starts making him a dodgy suggestion. To my amusement, he sports a tongue tie today, but unless he has a six foot tongue he was tripping over, I can’t see how that helps his jumping and he arrives here with plenty to prove. Andy Dufresne is that last one I want to mention in this particular contest, he jumps well in general and could yet be the one to chase home the jolly, and the 12/1 at the time of writing makes him sorely tempting as an each way alternative to the favourite.
3.40pm Leopardstown
Not much of a field for the Irish Gold Cup with just the five going to post but at last we don’t have an odds on favourite for a change. Winning prices have ranged from 5/4 up to 33/1 over the last ten renewals suggesting all things are possible, though the fact that the favourite fell last time out says more about the race than anything else for me. Minella Indo is certainly a horse with plenty of talent since being switched to fences, with three wins from six starts and a length second to Champ when mugged close home ion the RSA Chase at Cheltenham last season, and won his first two starts this season at Wexford and Navan comfortably enough before tipping up here at the eighth fence. If he puts in a clear round he has a very good chance as he seems to be getting better race on race and that was the first mistake I could see and one I suspect he may well learn from. In all honestly this is not a race I will be betting in with Delta Work a very serious danger to the jolly in my view. How he unseated Sean Flanagan at the ninth in the same race as Minella Indo is a mystery to me (he seemed to put his back legs down too sharply on landing), but he is a class act at his best, is still only a youngster at the age of weight and is reunited with Jack Kennedy today. It ought to be a fascinating race without a doubt and one that will give us Cheltenham Gold Cup pointers – but sadly not one where I have a really strong opinion and I won’t be betting myself for that very sane reason.
Tired of reading – go to our free to listen to podcast instead here https://postracing.co.uk/2021/02/05/this-week-rons-put-up-a-treble-seans-gone-to-wetherby-and-they-have-plenty-for-you-to-work-with/
Sean’s Suggestions:
Short priced acca: Chacun Pour Soi 1.35pm Leopardstown Saturday, Honeysuckle 3.15pm Leopardstown Saturday, Appreciate It 2.10pm Leopardstown Sunday, Monkfish 3.10pm Leopardstown Sunday.
Raf Tavel 1.58pm Wetherby Saturday – not a race covered above but I do know trainer Ben Pauling is very sweet on this horse, not necessarily for today, but overall. A risk is taken on his fitness and his ability to handle the ground, but he is smart enough and can hopefully get his British career off to a winning start.
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