Well we had a decent enough Goodwood overall and I am pretty proud of that (never an easy meeting to find winners at in my opinion), but you can never stand still in this game and we have plenty to talk about again this week.
Politics to kick things off, with William Hill shutting a shed load of branches and IMO blaming the coronavirus. Reality is that hardly anyone went into a branch (other than the FOBT players) and with the stakes restricted on those by law, they were never ever going to remain a profitable option. Yes life is strange but as everyone moves to more and more on line shopping why would betting be any different, and hands up, I honestly cannot remember the last time I visited a betting shop in person to place any of my bets when I can so easily shop around for better value via the likes of oddschecker.
On a far sadder note I would like to think the majority of racing fans would have been enjoying the rags to riches story of Sceptical, bought unraced as a three-year-old gelding from Godolphin for £2,800 and the winner of £124,848 in win and place prize money after successes at Dundalk (three times), Naas (in Listed class), and places at Group One level with a third to Hello Youmzain in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot and a second to Oxted in the July Cup at Newmarket. We were all looking forward to his next outing where he seemed sure to acquit himself well regardless of the opposition, before a tragic and fatal accident on the gallops at home in Ireland put an end to all the dreams. What he offered in hope can never be taken away, and we can now all dream again of owning a share in a group class animal without needing to rob a bank first – sleep well Sceptical, if there is a horse heaven then you will have plenty of interesting stories to share.
On to the racing this week (other racing subjects will be covered in the podcast, see below), with plenty of quality races to mull over.
Saturday
Dick Hern Stakes 2.05pm Haydock
It looks like nine and ten race cards may be here to stay (and it makes economic sense for the racecourses), but naturally we will be focussing on what I see as the better contests. Amazingly we have up to nine runners here over the mile meaning each way punter heaven at a guess, though with an odds on favourite in Veracious we need to tread very carefully. Sir Michael Stoute’s mare is the highest rated here and well-drawn in the one stall, and I suspect she will be there or thereabouts from the off, but she does have an absence of 294 days to overcome which cannot be seen as a positive. Three-year-olds get weight from their rivals thanks to race conditions (seven pounds) and that age group has won six of the last nine renewals so I will be on Tomorrow’s Dream to small stakes on the assumption that her trainer William Haggas knows a lot more than I do. Rated just 90 she has plenty to find on the ratings, but she won easily enough at Goodwood last time out to deserve a shot at earning some black type. As a daughter of Oasis Dream the predicted good or faster ground will be ideal, and at 16/1 she does look worthy of a look at the very least for a yard hitting a 29% strike rate in the last two weeks.
Rose Of Lancaster Stakes 2.40pm Haydock
Here we go again. A Group three contest, on a weekend, good ground – and just the seven runners despite over £20,000 to the winner – no sympathy for owners from me I’m afraid. Once again, we have a pretty short priced favourite in John Gosden’s Global Giant, who is looking for his third win from four starts this season. On recent form and after a length win at Newbury last time out you can see why the son of Shamardal is at the head of the betting, but he may not want the ground to dry out too much and looks as if he is far happier with just a little bit of cut in the turf. Crossed Baton interests me and we can ignore his last run when he just failed to handle the soft ground on his return at Royal Ascot when tailed off in the Wolferton Stakes, but he still has a little bit more to find here as does Fox Tal who has been well backed on both starts but been well beaten both times. As I am not convinced the jolly is as bullet proof as his odds suggest I will side with Sir Michael Stoute’s Zaaki who could be a different animal stepped up to a mile and a quarter. Admittedly he is proving pretty hard to win with recently (one success from his last seven starts back in June 2019), but he was a close up third in this class at Newbury in June and beaten less than six lengths behind Mohaather in the Summer Mile and if he gets home here (plenty of stamina on the dam’s side), then he could yet be the one to beat.
Sweet Solera Stakes 3.20pm Newmarket
Two-year-olds here over the seven furlongs and we all know to our cost how difficult it can be to balance the raw form with the improvement some still have to offer with further experience. The two unbeaten runners include favourite Fly Miss Helen from the Hannon yard, though what she achieved in taking her maiden at Newbury is open to debate. The runner up has been beaten in a maiden since, and as this is better company others may well offer better value. Danilova looks to be going the right way for Charlie Appleby and is a big danger, but once again I will tag on to the Haggas bandwagon and have a bit each way on Spirit Of Bermuda (8/1 or so). Like most of the stable’s newcomers the daughter of Twilight Son looked as if she would improve for her debut outing when sent off an 8/1 chance, but she got up very late to win by a head at Goodwood and can only come on for the run. Her trainer has a line to the jolly via Jacinth and should know in advance if his runner is up to the task, and at the early prices decisions had to be made.
Sunday
Phoenix Stakes 3.10pm Curragh
An important race but not helped by the fact that at the time of writing, the O’Brien horses are yet to have a jockey allocated to them making their first choice very much open to question. The stable have won six of the last ten renewal including with the likes of Caravaggio and Air Force Blue but Admiral Nelson (close to six lengths fourth in the Richmond Stakes), Giorgio Vasari (on as hat-trick but significantly up in class), and St Mark’s Basilica (once raced maiden second) all need to offer more to add to that tally. This really is a top class field including Railway Stakes runner-up Lucky Vega, Prix Robert Papin winner Ventura Tormenta and short head runner up The Lir Jet, and the eye catching and recently sold Steel Bull who is my idea of the winner. An opening maiden win at Naas was followed by success a week later in the Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood despite getting trapped behind horses, and with an added furlong today he may well be the one to emulate Siskin’s success last year – and we all know how good he has turned out to be this season.
Sovereign Stakes 3.25pm Salisbury
One look at the handicapper’s ratings here and we can see that on paper at least, we ought to have a pretty tight fought contest. Duke of Hazard is rated 114 for Paul and Oliver Cole and will be looking for his first success of the season after a thirteenth at Royal Ascot, a third at the same track, and more recently a second to Space Blues at Goodwood in the Lennox Stakes when failing to get a clear run at a crucial stage. That form looks solid enough to suggest he will be a major player again today, but he does look the sort to keep finding problems and will need everything to fall in to place to come home at the head of the pack. Both Positive and Regal Reality try first time headgear (blinkers and a visor respectively) and could upset the apple cart if their abilities are rekindled, but Motakhayyel is the one on the up and up and should prove hard to beat. He is stepping out of handicap class for the first time on his seventh start here but has won both starts a shade cleverly this season and has earned his shot at the big time. Wins at Royal Ascot and then at Newmarket have seen him show a good turn of foot to put the race to bed and it will be interesting to see if he can do the same in this exalted company.
Phoenix Sprint 3.40pm Curragh
Not trying to pre-empt my statistic battering friend and podcast partner Ron but the first thing I noted here was that no five-year-old has won this in the last ten years. Whether that actually rules out Speak In Colours and Buffer Zone who knows, but we have to start somewhere, and this is tricky to solve. The act that Archie Watson sends over Glen Shiel and David O’Meara Gulliver suggests they have better chances than their recent form implies, but it looks hard to see past Jessica Harrington’s Millisle if she turns up with her A game. Not only is she officially the best horse here with a mark of 114 but she arrives in hot form after a four length romp at Naas in late June and she gets weight from her elders making her the one they all have to beat, granted a clear run of course.
Bored of reading and after a second opinion – the Post Racing Podcast is back after a week’s holiday (for Ron not me!) and is free to listen to here
https://postracing.co.uk/2020/08/07/sceptical-itv-the-clover-club-and-a-winner-in-ireland-on-sunday/
- enjoy.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Zaaki 2.40pm Haydock Saturday
Spirit Of Bermuda 3.20pm Newmarket Saturday
Steel Bull 3.10pm The Curragh Sunday
Millisle 3.40pm The Curragh Sunday
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