First things first and anyone who read last week’s Grand National article will have taken the broadest of hints that it is not my favourite race – and that attitude goes forward for another year as I failed to get anywhere near to finding the winner. Hats off to the amazing Rachel Blackmore who is surely having a season no one can ever top, male or female, as she proved yet again that given the right ammunition she (and other female riders) can compete with the men – and beat them – and that racing is actually well ahead of other sports when it comes to equality, though perfection is still a few steps away. At the risk of being accused of pot stirring, I do note two contradictory arguments though – on the one hand Rachel is the best jockey by some margin (probably correct), but on the other the Irish have the best horses and those well handicapped too – don’t they cancel each other out? If Minella Times was so well handicapped was it Rachel’s ability that got him home in front, or the fact that there is something woefully wrong with the handicapping system and he was well in at the weights? I do agree the two can work hand in hand up to a point, and I am a massive fan of Rachel’s riding abilities so no sour grapes here, but I do wonder if one of those two aspects heavily influences the other – if the Irish have the best horses then they must be more likely to visit the winners’ enclosure.
Last week I mentioned Neil Callan and how I felt he was harshly punished by the Hong Kong Jockey Club (at least from the little information I have), and it appears he must think the same as he has now lodged an appeal against his “sentence”. It is obviously not my place to question how they operate (and to be fair, they are the most successful and profitable racing jurisdiction anywhere in the World today), but it would be nice if all the racing bodies around the globe got together to formulate media access or not so those of us expecting pretty much full disclosure don’t feel quite so disappointed when left to our own devices. Sadly, a lack of information in the modern world of social media invariably invites conspiracy theories and rumour, where as a transcript would stop all that it its tracks. Finally for Hong Kong, good luck to Harry Bentley who has a licence over there and has his first rides (six of them on Saturday), in what will be a steep learning curve but one that will see him return a better jockey, I guarantee it.
Back to the Grand National but this time from a betting perspective, and I note that the overrounds (bookmaker percentage profit per horse) were lower than they have been for many a year which can only be good for punters. I would like to think that has something to do with the HBF publications of figures showing the returns since Starting Price has been in the hands of the bookmakers – or it could be a one off to lull us all in to a false sense of security, only time will tell on that one. Bottom line for me is that if bookmakers can set their own starting prices then a more stringent control body needs to be in place to stop it becoming a licence to print money, but then again I was brought up to see them as the enemy and perhaps I need to be dragged kicking and screaming in to the 21st century?
As if I had an agenda that neatly leads me on to the exchanges, who may not be popular the world over, but here in the UK quite clearly offer prices that are far better than the bookmakers nine times out of ten. Sadly, I have no idea what percentage of bets are placed on the exchanges as opposed to traditional bookmakers, but with the exception of bonuses (long gone on my case), I cannot for the life of me work out why anyone sticks with what used to be known as “the High Street” bookies. Picking two races at random from the Newmarket card on Wednesday, and My Oberon won the Earl Of Sefton at 7/1, closely followed by Sacred at 6/1 in the Nell Gwyn Stakes, meaning a £10 win bet on both paid £70 and £60 respectively of profit. The same horses paid out at 8.08/1 and 6.81/1 respectively on the better known exchange, or 7.91/1 and 6.67/1 after the standard 2% commission. Now I know that is not retirement money, but why punters would want to throw away any added money is beyond me, but seemingly the bookies continue to thrive though I would be intrigued to find out why?
On to the racing…
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Saturday
Thirsk 2.10pm
Just the six runners for this Conditions Stakes but a lot more interesting than it looks at first glance with a few stories in amongst the line-up. Motokhayyel is the highest rated (by a solitary pound) and won a couple of Class Two handicaps at the beginning of last season before finding both a mile and a step up in class beyond him on his last two starts. He clearly goes well fresh and has won three times at this trip making him the one they all have to beat, though I would be more confident if the Richard Hannon yard were in slightly better form with more places than wins in the last week or so. Azano is the next on the intriguing list having left John Gosden for France in May last year where he failed to score from three starts for Francis-Henry Graffard, and he has now returned to these shores with David O’Meara, who is well known for improving horses from elsewhere. He has actually won in Group company with the Prix Paul de Moussac Longines over a mile in 2019 at Chantilly, and takes his first drop in class since winning a Yarmouth novice in 2018, after which he has taken on far better company than this and I will be watching his place in the betting with interest before finalising my bets on the day. Toro Strike is a decent sort for Richard Fahey and is also worthy of consideration, but what can I say about Pierre Lapin, who would have got my vote for disappointment of the season last year. The winner of his first two starts as a juvenile, including the Group Two Mill Reef Stakes, big things were expected of the son of Capella Sansevero who started off 2020 in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot (stone cold last), and followed that with a tenth of eleven in the Lennox Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, and a fifteen length sixth of nine to Dream Of Dreams in the Hungerford Stakes. He has now suffered the ultimate punishment with a gelding operation last August, and I will be watching carefully for encouraging signs that he can finally fulfil his undoubted potential and will back him accordingly in the hope that today is his day.
The Curragh 2.35pm
Plenty of runners this time around with twelve declared in a race won by Lancaster House last season for Aidan O’Brien – and he is back for more of the same in 2021. No great shock when I tell you that the yard are in among the winners early season, but a 13% strike rate is low by their standards and hardly fills me with that much confidence. On official ratings he has a few pounds to find with the year younger Know It All, Johnny Murtagh’s Lord Kanaloa filly, though as we all expect at this stage of the season, fitness is key and we don’t know how far forward she is (barring any clues from the betting). Personally, that is a risk I am willing to take, albeit reluctantly, as I am confident she will improve again this season, though as mentioned, a check on the last minute betting may well tell a story, one way of the other. Both Fiscal Rules and Lustown Baba arrive with the benefit of a run already this season which muddies the waters further, but decisions have to be made, and the Murtagh horse will do for me on this occasion.
The Curragh 3.10pm
The early tissue for this contest is rather lop-sided but Broome landed our bets very easily on his return to action at Naas and looks the likeliest to come home in front again this afternoon. Slowly away that day, Seamie Heffernan never had a moments doubt he would win the race before easing clear late on for a three and a half length romp, and although this is a small step up in class, if he remains in that sort of rude health he is difficult to oppose when you eye up the opposition. Thundering Nights may be the one to chase the selection home for any forecast backers out there, and for Joseph O’Brien who won this last year with Buckhurst (always a positive). Yet to win over this trip another winter on her back may well help her to see it out while Njord will strip fitter for his return and should finish a lot closer to Broome this time around.
Sunday
Newbury 1.35pm
A proper field for the John Porter Stakes on Sunday afternoon and the obligatory fitness versus form argument rears its ugly head once again. Outbox has won his last two starts over this trip at Wolverhampton and then Doncaster and deserves a step in to the big time but surely if any of his classier rivals are fit enough, he can only hope for a place here. With Thunderous shunning this event (sadly) I have had to regroup and will now side with the far shorter Al Aasy who has been well supported for the in-form William Haggas stable. Two wins at Newmarket last summer marked the son of Sea The Stars down as one to follow, but he did blot his copybook at Goodwood when last of six in the Gordon Stakes with no obvious explanation other than an off day. If money talks then he wins this, but if not then Deja should go well with the eye catching booking of Ryan Moore for the Peter Chapple-Hyam trained six-year-old. Lightly raced for his age with just the nine career starts, he invariably goes well fresh and if you don’t like backing favourites, he should go well at a bigger price though be warned, if the sun keeps drying out the ground, then I doubt he even runs.
Newbury 2.10pm
With modern training methods seeing plenty of the classic contenders heading straight to Newmarket these days, this isn’t really the 1000 Guineas trial it once was, but that is not to say we don’t have a decent line-up with some of my favourite juveniles of last season reappearing here. Dandalla was a personal favourite but I need proof she will stay the seven furlongs here before I can open the wallet to back her sadly, while Lucid Dreamer and Wild Iris both appear in my little black book with their unbeaten records and they could be anything - or nothing, but I won’t be writing them off regardless. As the reality is I cannot make up my mind, I might as well go for the one at the biggest odds each way and that leads me to Zaajirah, Roger Varian’s daughter of Shamardal who quickened up nicely on her only start to date on the all-weather at Kempton in October and looked a decent filly in the process. A 33/1 chance for the 1000 Guineas those odds will tumble should she win here, and with the Roger Varian horses running well enough she has a sporting chance at a decent price in a race best watched than punted on in my opinion.
Newbury 2.45pm
From the fillies to the colts in a race won by the likes of Frankel, Kingman, and Barney Roy in the past, so every chance the line up here includes something pretty decent – but which one. Chindit seems plenty short enough for my liking after a poor showing in the Dewhurst last Autumn when there is every possibility the soft ground didn’t suit him at all, but then again it could well rain between now and Sunday which isn’t a good thing. His overall form does make him a worthy jolly but at odds of 7/4 or thereabouts I would rather look for an each way alternative. Mehmento is a strange one having two wide margin wins to his name from two starts – but both were at Southwell and I challenge anyone to tell me the last winner of this race that came here from that surface. I wish connections the very best but will pass him over today in favour of Alkumait who failed to handle the soft ground in the Dewhurst when stone cold last. He also pulled far too hard that day and I am willing to put a line through that form, though whether he will be fully wound up first time up by Marcus Tregoning is the big question. He is certainly held in very high regard at home and seen as their best colt for many a year, and if he is as good as they hope then a big run here is very much on the cards.
Ayr 2.25pm
The Scottish Champion Hurdle next and you all know what I am going to say – how can a handicap be called a Champion Hurdle? That aside, with over £22,000 to the victor it is certainly a prize worth winning, and one where Country Hurdle third Milkwood heads the early markets. The seven-year-old lost a shoe that day which may well have cost him second or even the race, and you could argue he deserves to win a race like this as compensation. He does run off just the two pounds higher today which seems generous enough, but 9/4 in a twelve runner handicap is something I just cannot entertain. Enemy Coast Ahead is interesting as a novice with three wide margin wins in far lesser races but his mark of 129 is very low to the extent that we haven’t had a winner of this race so lowly rated in the 23 years of statistics I have to hand. He might be anything and could run well but so should Scarlet Dragon who teases me as an each way option at 16/1 for Alan King. Previously a winner at up to Class Two on the flat and Listed class over hurdles, he has only had the one run recently over obstacles when third at Huntingdon, but that has seen his mark drop to 135, which I am sure is something connections will feel they can work with. Calico and Diego Du Charmil are both in the mix at their best, but the last named may just have a touch too much weight for me, so with zero confidence whatsoever, I will be having a pound each way on the King beast.
Ayr 3.00pm
I really did not expect this to be as interesting as it is but racing is a wonderful sport if you look in to things deeply enough and this is a prime example. At the head of the market here we have Allmankind, a confirmed front runner who came home a highly respectable fourth behind Shishkin in the Arkle at Cheltenham despite possibly sulking when he could not get a soft early lead. Malystic seems unlikely to have the speed to unsettle Allmankind early, and I rather doubt the others have the class with the possible exception of Tamaroc Du Mathan, and the favourite really ought to win this hard held and give Harry Skelton another winner in his quest for the jockey’s title.
Ayr 3.35pm
Not the sort of race I like (see Grand National last week) but the Scottish equivalent and a highly competitive handicap, nonetheless. I did try the stats but they told me very little (all things seem possible here), with the last two winners coming home at odds of 25/1 (Takingrisks) and 33/1 (Joe Farrell), though neither take their place this season. Aye Right heads the betting at 5/1 for Harriet Graham after a solid third to Vintage Clouds in the Ultima Chase at Cheltenham (form boosted by runner-up Happygolucky last weekend), but he has only ever won the solitary event over fences from eight attempts and is no certainly to stay the four miles, yet he is clearly the form choice with a second to Cloth Cap on his CV as well, suggesting he is the likeliest improver in this field. The ground will suit him as well which is a positive, but I am a little wary of his lack of experience over fences which is just about enough to put me off suggesting a bet. One (long) look at the official ratings and I note that very few entries have ever carried their current mark to a success over fences so I thought I would focus on those who have – after all, that way we aren’t asking them to do anything they haven’t achieved on the past (with the exception of the course and trip, obviously). Oldgrangewood, Big River, and Chef D’Ouevre are the trip I can find, plus Coup De Pinceau (if you include Angus Cheleda’s seven pound claim), and I will be messing about with lottery style tricasts for a laugh on those four. Having said that, the Chef has to carry two pounds more than his allotted mark, and Coup De Pinceau’s recent improvement was put down to the soft ground (which he seems unlikely to get here), and Big River pulled up last time out at Newcastle with atrial fibrillation which is hardly that encouraging. That leaves me with Oldgrangewood as my each way call for the Skeltons, though he steps up from two and a half miles to four today in a race with far more questions than answers as far as I am concerned.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Not this week!
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