Well, I had a week off (slapped wrist) to recover and digest exactly what went on at Cheltenham, and I can only hope you all had a good meeting and backed plenty of winners (I had a few but nowhere near as many as I wanted, as usual).
Looking back I always try to find two horses to follow for the future, and I ignore the handicaps (who knows what rating they will run off next time out or the time after that), and that leaves me with the superstars, the glaringly obvious – not ones to make us rich, but ones to watch and enjoy over the months or years ahead. Everyone will be expecting me to say Constitution Hill for starters but I am taking Jonbon from the Supreme instead as I am hoping he will be sent over fences as soon as next season. He certainly has the build of a chaser in my eyes and if that is the case, it may well be all systems for for next season’s Arkle and I will happily admit, I have already availed myself of some 12/1 (10/1 now), in the hope that is the case, and he is as good as I think he is.
For my second horse, I give you The Nice Guy. Yes I did back him at 18/1 on the day (if you listen to my podcasts you will find I tipped him for the Albert Bartlett weeks before the race), and lest we forget, he is a big unfurnished beast who will be better over the years ahead. Again I hope they send him chasing, with the Brown Advisory Chase next season a likely target, though in his case I will wait a while before opening the wallet as he sits high in the betting for both that race and the National Hunt chase and I’d rather have a better idea of his likelier target before unleashing any hard-earned cash.
My next subject to chat about just has to be the going, and why oh why are clerks of the course so loathe to change the gong mid-meeting? The race times on the Tuesday at Cheltenham would tell anyone that the going was much faster than the good to soft listed but did they change it instantaneously – did they eck as like. For me, this is another example of punters being ignored in the great scheme of things, yet no-one ever asks why the information isn’t updated instantly in the year 2022. Watering was also brought in to question as the rains then fell, and we ended up with atrocious ground. I am all in favour of safety being paramount, and perhaps there ought to be a going stick reading that the ground can never be faster than (if that makes sense), but just imagine of you will that you have a horse entered that likes good ground or thereabouts. You have the risk of the weather but fingers crossed you sit there, placing your bets accordingly – and then they water the ground and ruin your chances – surely, to a point, nature should just be allowed to take it’s course?
Finally, what does everyone else think about the proposal for a five-day Cheltenham? Personally, I felt the smaller fields this year were testament that any new races will simply dilute those already in place (and we had enough trouble trying to work out who might go where until the day of the race), but if they switch to what used to be the standard six-race cards, we only need two new ones to add the extra day, and I can certainly see their financial view of an added day of income (70,000 people per day at say an average of £50 plus another £50 in spending (without betting) is an awful lot of money), though I am less than convinced that it won’t take away from the spectacle of it all.
Want to hear our thoughts – tune in to our free podcast herehttps://theworldofsport.co.uk/2022/03/25/cheltenham-champions-the-lincoln-dubai-world-cup-kempton-and-much-more-discussed-this-week/ or from any of the podcast providers, we are on them all!
On to the racing….
Saturday
1.50pm Doncaster
Not the best Listed race ever seen to start our day but an interesting one anyway with the annual battle of ability versus race fitness. Charlie Hills won this last season with Royal Commando and is back for seconds with Garrus who heads the early betting. He was last seen when sixth in a Group Two at Newmarket last October, and has Group Three winning form at Deauville which makes him the one to beat. That said, his stable are struggling for winners lately, and I will take a chance on Mondammej to small stakes instead. He may have a slight fitness edge after being beaten a neck over five furlongs at Lingfield last month when running on strongly in a Listed race, and if he can repeat that effort here he could go close.
3.00pm Doncaster
A very disappointing field (not just the jumps then), though connections won’t mind too much with £2,144 for whoever comes home last of the four. Chindit is the odds-on favourite here and deserves to be after a fifth to Palace Pier at Deauville and a fourth to Lavenders Blue at Goodwood last season. His sights are lowered here and he should get a moral boosting victory, with Royal Champion an interesting alternative dropping back to a mile after failing to see his races out over further.
3.35pm Doncaster (Lincoln)
It’s a stats based attack on this race – though be warned, I think I still had hair when I last backed the winner! Looking at the last 24 runnings and I have found: No winners priced at bigger than 40/1, only one aged older than six, only one carrying more than nine stone five, one rated below 89, one rated above 104, and none who last raced between 16 and 120 days and 22 of the 24 were in the first 12 in the betting (risky at this stage but I have to use the odds available to me at the time of writing). If all those “rules” are used on the field this season then I am now left with a shortlist of eight to work with (Mujtaba, Irish Admiral, Saleymm, Darkness, Fame And Acclaim, Ametist, Notre Belle Bete, and Teodolina). Not perfect but a good start, and having noted that the last five runnings have gone to a four year-old, and the last seven to a horse with a double figure draw, common sense suggests we focus our attentions there. As if by magic, that only leaves us with Darkness and Teodolina, and I will dutch the two to small stakes – though if I had to name one, then Darkness carries the can, if only because David O’Meara has had one winner and six places in this race from his 16 runners over the years which may give the ex-French trained runner the edge.
3.41 Curragh
How Freedom Of Speech won over six furlongs as a juvenile is beyond me as a daughter of Australia, and she looks a big price here stepping up in trip and in receipt of 20lbs from her elders she could outrun her price for the shrewd and talented Jim Bolger. That said, Aiden O’Brien looks to have found a relatively straightforward starting point for Mother Earth’s season and she is hard to oppose, - but hard to back at 4/7 as well. Last season saw her win or place in seven Group One contests starting with a win in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, and as long as she hasn’t gone backwards over the winter, she ought to win this pulling a cart.
2.05pm Kempton
Fancy Man heads the betting here after his third to Alenquer in the Lingfield Winter Derby last month and he should go well, but at these weights I narrowly prefer the chances of Felix from the Marco Botti yard. Once raced this season, he came home fifth in Dubai in the Group One Jebel Hatta over a furlong shorter, running on all too late, and with his length third to Pyledriver at Lingfield in November also on his CV, he may win his first race since January last year this afternoon.
Dubai World Cup Night
I am not in Dubai this year but all my media friends are and they are drip feeding me information on an hourly basis, though I also have to add that the Dubai Racing Club have stepped up to a whole new level with information, interviews, gallop reports, photos, the lot – it has been a breath of fresh air in comparison to how the media are treated over here, and I cannot for the life of me work out why the racing powers here seem oblivious to the added column inches and their ability to increase both interest and crowds. Naturally I will focus on the European raiders to a point while trying to find the winners of the big races (not necessarily the same thing, sadly), so here we go!
1.35pm Meydan
If we count Charlie Appleby’s Godolphin owned horses as “European” then the betting suggests we have an outstanding chance here with Man Of Promise (William Buick) heading the early betting closely followed by stablemate Creative Force (James Doyle). Both have the form in the book to go well without a doubt at a meeting Godolphin excel at (no surprise there), and if the favourite can repeat his last run when blasting clear in the Group Three Nad Al Sheba Sprint, he will certainly prove very difficult to catch. If you are looking for one at a bigger price, Frankie Dettori rides Naval Crown in the same colours. He raced too freely from a wide draw last time in a race you can put a line through, and at 14/1 he could well outrun his price.
2.45pm Meydan
On to the dirt track for our second Group one, another sprint and perhaps a tougher one to try to solve. The Americans have dominated this race in recent years (mainly by sending over better horses year on year), and it would be a surprise were they to be beaten here – but which one of theirs will come out on top? If you look at this field in depth you will soon note that plenty of these are stepping up in grade (looking for some of the massive prize money, no doubt), with the obvious exception of Dr. Schivel, a four-year-old son of Violence who has won five times, with two of those at Grade One level. He was never sighted when last of seven over a furlong further at Santa Anita in December, but may be better gauged by his nose second to Aloha West in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Del Mar in December. On form he is hard to oppose but I haven’t heard too many positive things about his trackwork so if you do get involved, I suggest you cut your bets down accordingly.
3.20pm Meydan
Us Europeans have won six of the last 10 runnings of this race which must give us plenty of hope, though Japanese contender Schnell Meister heads the early betting after his second to Gran Allegria in the Mile Championship at Hanshin last November. I cannot pretend I know the Japanese form inside out, but nor am I stupid enough to not realise that they are a powerhouse in International racing, and you underestimate them at your peril. Lord North won this last year for John Gosden and will make a bold bid to repeat that effort with just the one run since when second at Lingfield to put him straight, but I am less convinced than most that this is his trip and will look elsewhere for my suggestion. Mohaafeth was a tempter as William Haggas drops him back in trip which looks an interesting move, but at a bigger price I will be going in each way on Jane Chapple-Hyam’s Saffron Beach who is a ridiculous price at 8/1. A daughter of New Bay, she clearly goes well fresh with a debut win as a two-year-old at Newmarket and a second in the Nell Gwynn Stakes at the same course on her first start last season. She capped off last season with a win in the Sun Chariot Stakes (Group One) with the classy Mother Earth trailing in her wake, yet she seems to have been ignored by the majority looking in to this contest. On official ratings she is considered 5lb inferior to Lord North (120), but gets 5lb as a mare, suggesting she will be there or thereabouts, and I also suspect she may go on to be even better this season, and a bold run is expected here.
3.55pm Meydan
Yibir heads the market here for Charlie Appleby and after a win in the Breeders’ Cup Turf at Del Mar last time out he is a horse with plenty of ability. He is apparently in rude health and ready to go with the Man O’ War Stakes back in the USA next on his agenda if all goes well today. My only issue is the form of his last win may not be as good as some think (Broome was just half a length away in second, and he was beaten 9 lengths in the Japan Cup next time out), and that only points to the chances of Authority here. Second in the Japan Cup, he has been given a prep race for this when coming home unchallenged at Riyadh in the Group Three Neom Turf Cup, and if he can get clear from the 10 stall they might not see which way he went. Of the rest, I would love to see a big run from Pyledriver with Frankie riding him for the first time, but as things stand, I am happy enough with my selection – each way at least in this field.
4.35pm Meydan
This may be the grand finale, the big race of the day, and worth over £5million to the winner, but for us Brits, it’s a bit of an anti-climax. I have been fortunate enough to be there when horses of the calibre of California Chrome, Arrogate, and Thunder Snow have led their rivals a merry dance, and congratulations to those involved in getting the top American horses over to challenge (changing the track to dirt may have been a big help!), but with an odds-on favourite what can I add? Life Is Good was always likely to go off at a prohibitive price after he beat Knicks Go in what looked a match in the Pegasus last time out, but given a perfect draw in the one stall, it looks all over bar the shouting. Interestingly, there is plenty of early pace to the race with Hypothetical and Hot Rod Charlie capable of serving it up to the favourite early on, but as things stand, I can only see one winner. Godolphin will be looking at themselves pretty seriously with only the two contenders (22/1 chance Real World and 25/1 shot Magny Cours), and will no doubt look to source new blood for next year, leaving Japanese raider Chuwa Wizard (22/1) as an each way alterative for those who like that sort of thing.
Sunday
4.25pm Naas
Just the one Listed contest this Sunday but an interesting one nonetheless. Jason The Militant returns to the Flat having mixed it at a lofty level over hurdles and is one to watch with his fitness advantage, as is the once raced Ger Lyons trained Licence, who has entries in better races in the next few months including the Group One Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh in May. He won his only start at Gowran Park very easily and could be anything granted nominal improvement. The other interesting one has to be Aidan O’Brien’s Cleveland, not seen in action since winning his maiden in November 2020. It is fairly unusual for connections to keep a horse in training if they don’t think he is up to the grade, suggesting the son of Camelot may be a lot better than we have seen on the course so far.
Sean’s Selections:
Saffron Beach each way 3.20pm Meydan
Authority each way 3.55pm Meydan
And a small each way double the pair
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