Well, we weren’t as accurate as I hoped last weekend with the Guineas going very much elsewhere in comparison to my hopes and my ante-post slips are little more than firelights now, nothing new there I suppose. Most are already crabbing the Guineas form and there is, as always, a big question mark over just how good or bad this season’s three-year-olds are, but it has been that way ever since Frankel as we hunt for the next superstar, which is a big ask for any horse and sets totally unrealistic expectations.
On to the races themselves and no need to look for excuses as we ended up with a bunch finish for the first three – though none of them were in my selections. The only thing I did get right was Van Gough coming home first of the Aidan O’Brien runners – but he was back in eight h so that didn’t work out too well. I hadn’t seen Poetic Flare coming despite being a huge fan of Jim Bolger, though he has already won three of his four starts and was clearly an improving sort who I should not have passed over. 20/20 hindsight is a wonderful thing, with his Commonwealth Cup entry enough to make me question his stamina, but he should be a force to reckon with over a mile all season, though do remember he had the benefit of a run this season, and others in behind may well come on sufficiently to overtake him as the summer progresses. Runner-up Master Of The Sea ran a blinder under William Buick and would have won in a couple more strides, but the one to take out of the race has to be Lucky Vega from the Jessica Harrington yard. The only one in the front four home without a start this season (add One Ruler and they were the only two in the first eight), and you can see how much race fitness counted, and although his stamina remains a little iffy, they seem sure to send him to the Irish 2000 Guineas next where he could well be the one to come out on top.
On Sunday it was the turn of the fillies but the writing was on the wall for favourite backers with Santa Barbara remarkably easy to back, going off the 5/2 joint favourite after trading at 5/4 or so the night before. She ran a decent enough race in fourth but showed all the worst traits of inexperience when called upon for an effort, wandering, hanging and looking as if she failed to handle the dip on the Rowley mile. The winner (Mother Earth) saw Franke Dettori add to his list of big race successes which can only be a good thing for the sport (if it keeps him going for another season), but once again she bought experience to the table having had a pretty much unprecedented eight races as a juvenile. Hats off to her toughness but I will be surprised if this is anything better than a mediocre renewal with Santa Barbara the one I will be taking out of this race for future events including the Oaks, assuming she can handle Epsom.
Chester used to be known as a serious set of Derby and Oaks trials, but I would doubt that we saw any world beaters this season on the rain softened ground that saw a long list of non-runners. Dubai Fountain took the Cheshire Oaks readily enough for Mark Johnston by a length but runner-up Zeyaadah could be considered unlucky having tracked across from a poor draw and then getting caught in behind a wall of horses and I may even suggest she was the moral victor. I won’t be rushing off to back her for the Oaks proper just yet as she did look a little flat footed when the leaders kicked on, but she is undoubtedly a talented filly and I am quietly confident she has more wins in her this year for the Roger Varian yard.
On Thursday we had the Dee Stakes won by El Drama by a length but the ground was riding on the slower side by then and I won’t be reading too much in to it. He does hold a Derby entry and has been shortened to 25/1 on the back of that effort but looks to have plenty to find if he wants to win the Epsom classic.
Next up its back to Australia and the hoo hah about the Melbourne Cup and how the new rules have affected European challengers and it’s time for me to eat some humble pie. My good friend Tim Carroll of ATR and Sky Sports fame wrote a very interesting article (not aimed at me as far as I know), which I followed up via some Facebook messages to make sure I fully understood all the intricacies. Bottom line is very simple – if we think we have troubles with the anti-racing brigade (am I allowed to say snowflakes?), think again – Australian racing seems to be under concerted attack. Under that sort of pressure, and with far too many horses having to be put down (which none of us find acceptable), something had to give, resulting in the new rules. Sadly, after the horror of Anthony Van Dyck last year they had no choice but to at least look at the European raiders and the statistics do not look good at all. I am not a vet, so I cannot comment professionally on whether the long journey has anything to do with the attrition levels, or whether horses suffer jet lag (who knows, I have never asked them), but we can say that the percentage of injuries is, to put it politely, unacceptable. The quarantine limits of 24 that I raged about last week mean nothing when we have maxed out with 11 in past years (yes, I should have done more research), and all they are trying to do is reduce fatalities through whatever means necessary. When trainers and so on start crying protectionism it also needs to be pointed out that there are no win and you are in races in the Northern Hemisphere any more but that also applies to New Zealand, New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia, and Tasmania – does that sound like they are trying to stop “European challengers” to you – me neither. In conclusion, they are doing little more that attempt to save horse’s lives – whether it works or not only time will tell, but they have done the right thing in trying and I have changed my mind completely and now support them wholeheartedly.
On to the racing…
*** Sadly no podcast this week due to a bereavement in my colleague’s family***
Saturday Racing:
Naas 2.40pm
It won’t come as a huge shock to anyone when I tell you the last ten runnings of this Group Three contest have seen wins for the Aidan O’Brien yard (once), Jim Bolger (three times) and Dermot Weld (four times) as well as Jessica Harrington and Joseph murphy, but it seems sensible to stick with the bigger guns this season once again. Official ratings tell us that Silence Please is the one to beat as Jessica Harrington looks to follow up the 2020 success of One Voice, and after a solid second to Irish Derby runner-up Tiger Moth last June you can certainly make a very strong case on form for further success here. Unfortunately, he is now a four-year-old (obviously) and seven of the last ten victors have made the most of their three-year-old allowance which counts against him, but do any of the next generation look good enough. Generally speaking, possibly not with the possible exception of Sacred Rhyme, again trained by Jessica Harrington who may well have the reverse forecast here with the pairing, and although jockey bookings suggest otherwise, I will stick with Silence Please on this occasion.
Lingfield 2.15pm
With the track configuration similar to Epsom the Oaks trial often sees stables try out their classic hopes pre Epsom, though whether there is a classic winner is in this line-up seems pretty doubtful. None arrive here with earth shattering form to their name but plenty look relatively untested so far including Hugo Palmer’s Ocean Road who looks to have all the attributes for a successful season. Lightly raced with just the two starts, a second at odds of 12/1 at Nottingham and a very easy maiden win here over the mile on the all-weather track last December, she is bred to be better over further being by Australia out of a Theatrical mare, suggesting her stamina won’t be an issue, though obviously this is a big step up in class. 6/1 looks about right to me for an each way call with Oisin Murphy in the saddle for the first time, though I also expect a big run from the supposed Gosden second string of Regent who doesn’t do anything quickly but may be well suited by the step up in trip this afternoon at a double figure price.
Lingfield 2.50pm
Anthony Van Dyck won this in 2019 and went on to Epsom glory and there is a slim possibility that if any of the seven win this impressively they could even go on to do the same – but which one? Aidan O’Brien has taken three of the last ten renewals and relies on two this season via Kyprios (Ryan Moore) and Carlisle Bay (Frankie Dettori), who both sport first time cheekpieces. There is nothing between the two on official ratings and they have a bit more to find with some of these, but we all know you can never discount an O’Brien runner even if they have had a few upsets in recent weeks. Adayar probably boasts the best form after a second to Alenquer in the Sandown Classic trial where he lost a shoe, but 5/4 looks a very short price considering he would have been fit enough to do himself justice and it may be sensible to take a bigger risk on this occasion. Although it was only a Nottingham maiden, I was quite taken with the way Third Realm knuckled down when asked that day, and as that was his first start since last November, we can expect plenty of improvement. Currently a 50/1 shot for Epsom those odds will shorten considerably if he wins here under David Egan and although I would be far happier if we had eight runners and a place one two three, he can still give us a good run for our money at 12/1 and may even win if the racing gods are shining on us for a change this Saturday.
Lingfield 3.25pm
An intriguing seven furlong filles event next on the list and with eight runners (shock, horror) each way punters may even get paid out for third. Three-year-olds have only won three of the last ten renewals despite their weight allowance and nine of the last 23, exactly the same strike rate (11%) as the four-year-olds, but shy of the five-year-old stats with three winners from just the sixteen starters (19%), and the only age group to show a level stakes profit at SP. German form is a bit of an unknown to me to be honest, but Andreas Wohler sends Axana here after an easy Listed win at Hoppegarten and she could at least make the frame at odds of 7/1 or thereabouts. Make no mistake, this is no backwater setup having won the King George with Novellist and the Melbourne Cup with Protectionist and although it is easy to put down German form, that is based on ignorance (including me), and given the right horse, Andreas can clearly win the World’s biggest races. Her best form is all on Good going (as expected for Saturday), and in a wide open race I think she can at least hit the frame under Jason Watson, and hopefully lead them all home with Isabella Giles perhaps her biggest danger.
Nottingham 2.55pm
I am sure someone can explain why we have a sensible twelve runner field for this Listed event and smaller fields for better races elsewhere, though with recent winners ranging in price from as short as 10/11 and as long as 33/1 all things seem possible. Three year-olds have won the last three and I am wondering if it may be worth giving Chocoya another chance over the six furlongs here. It could be a good day for Hugo Palmer if I am correct as the Nell Gwynn fourth looked far happier dopped back to this trip when mugged on the line at Chelmsford, and with a fitness edge over plenty of this field, who are making their seasonal debuts, this could well be her best chance to strike in Listed class before the bigger yards send out their battalions later in the season.
Haydock 3.45pm
Back to disappointing field with six starters maximum for the £20,000+ first prize, and I will be watching the weather very carefully before striking any bets as rain is predicted in the Haydock area (they had hailstones Thursday). At this stage I can only work on the predicted Good to Soft surface and sadly for me that rules out Lord Of The Lodge who was withdrawn because of a similar surface here in June 2020 and has some pretty poor efforts to his name on any ground with the word soft in the going description. Tomfre, on the other hand is the polar opposite with wins on soft and heavy to his name and as he signed off last season with three wins on the trot in handicap company and has been gelded since, he could well be the one improver in the field. We are taking both the going, and his fitness on trust so my bets will be reduced (or even changed) if there is a going update that firms up the ground, but if the rains come, the son of Cable Bay looks to have an excellent chance of an eighth career success with the Ralph Beckett horses continuing to run to form.
Ascot 2.30pm
It always intrigues me to compare the betting with the official ratings which asks another question – if the ratings are accurate (and they should be), then why are the “best” horses often outsiders who then trail in near the back of the field – surely that suggests that either a) the ratings are wrong (which shouldn’t be the case), or b) the horses aren’t ready to do themselves justice, and how is that fair on the punter? The ratings here range from 96 to 110, yet two horses rated 108 are priced at 28/1 and 14/1 while the other 96 rated is Lost Eden who is the 11/2 third favourite – at level weights – go figure. I can see that the last named is improving fast to be fair, with wins at Lingfield on the all-weather over shorter, the last a nine length romp in a Class Five novice, but hopefully you get my point. Without A Fight carries the first colours of owner Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum which suggests he has a better chance than Lost Eden (and Andrea Atzeni rides which is another clue), and although four and a half lengths adrift of Al Aasy when second at Newbury in the John Porter Stakes, the winner holds a Coronation Stakes entry suggesting that was no disgrace. The cut expected here is right up his street judged on wins at Newbury and Haydock last season, with the only negative I can find being the mile and a half trip as I suspect he will be better over further later in the season. He won’t be easy to beat but I am taking (yet another) chance with the highly regarded Roberto Escobarr, who has his first race today following a wind operation in late December. Very lightly raced with just the three starts, he won a York novice with his head in his chest and wasn’t beaten that far (less than eight lengths) behind Piledriver in the Group Two Great Voltigeur Stakes at York when last seen, with March Stakes, Prix Royal-Oak, and Dubai Gold Cup winner Subjectivist one place behind him. When you consider the line-up that day included Mogul and Berkshire Rocco for example, you can see that he has nothing of that ilk in opposition today, and if he is fit (the big question after a lay-off), then he could well prove far too good for all of these.
Ascot 3.40pm
The obligatory once a week handicap and time to switch off at a guess, though do listen to the podcast as my fellow scribe does far better in handicaps than I do. Amazingly, the maximum field of 29 are all set to go to post here, so do shops around for bookmaker offers as some will be paying out far deeper than the obligatory 1-4 on this occasion – and some won’t. I don’t follow handicappers in depth for reasons I have explained numerous times (basically I don’t trust the handicappers to get it right), so its stats time – they do pay off, if only very occasionally! With twenty-one renewals to work on no surprise that few if any stats will be 100%, but we can start with the fact that eighteen of the twenty-one winners (86%) had come home in the first seven on their previous outing, which instantly rules out seven, not ideal but it is a start of sorts. Next up I will go with age, and with just the one winner over the age of six, we lose another four from the remaining field. With only one winner who had raced in the last 7 days I will cast out Tinto, Magical Wish, and On A Session, while not one winners has humped more than nine stone eight to success, so the maths says that Motakhayyel can’t win either. Only three have been rated 100 or above so I will put a risky line through Symbolize, while only three have won from outside the top eleven in the betting which means a no no for Jumairah Bay, Sunset Breeze, Full Authority, Jacks Point, Harrison Point, Lethal Lunch, Zip, Ropey Guest, which only leaves me with four possibles. Their draws are 2, 20, 18, and 10 respectively, which doesn’t help at all, do I will be backing Fox Champion, Acquitted, Karibana, and Walhaan in penny forecasts and tricasts, with the narrowest of preferences for Fox Champion each way at 11/1 or bigger, who was only beaten a length when third off this mark last time out at Haydock after failing to get a clear run, and can hopefully go one better here.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Roberto Escobarr 2.30pm Ascot Saturday
Chocoya 2.55pm Nottingham Saturday
Fox Champion each way 3.40pm Ascot Saturday
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