Although we have plenty to chat about this week I wanted to start with the sad news of the passing of Flemensfirth at the age of 31 after a highly successful career both on the track and afterwards at stud. Although all five of his career victories (from nine starts) were on the Flat, and over distances from a mile up to mile and a quarter, including the Prix Lupin (Longchamp) and the Premio Roma (Capannelle), both Group Ones, but it has been his career as a National Hunt sire that I want to mention here. Naturally, his passing “forced” me to have a quick look at his stats over the years and he has been responsible for an amazing 1866 winners over the years with a strike rate of over 12% and a profit of 144 points to level stakes at Betfair SP which is frankly outstanding. Tidal Bay was his most successful offspring numerically with 15 wins, Nowinittowinit the most profitable with two wins from six starts and +265 points, and Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander perhaps the most famous for obvious reasons. His runners are still out there performing even now, and I think we can safely say he will be sorely missed and is one of the few legends as a National Hunt sire in the last 30 years.
From sad news to something a lot more controversial and what does everyone think of the new changes to racings fixtures and more from 2024 onwards? It has certainly caused a storm, and I have no doubt whatsoever that in our podcast (see below) Ron Robinson will have a very different opinion to me (and he may even be correct), but for what it’s worth I am as supportive personally as I can be, if only because something has to change if we want our sport to thrive – or even stay where it is. In a nutshell, we are talking about is known as “The Future Racing Product” but we do all need to note it does not stand alone – the next steps are apparently called, and I quote “The owner experience, fan engagement, overseas investment, improving the betting product and product presentation, development and broadcast” - so six in all, and my point being that we should not overreact to part one which is seemingly being looked at in isolation by the majority of the racing media.
Naturally, not everyone is happy with some (all?) of the ideas put forward with the smaller tracks mentioning legal action if they are asked/forced to give up some of their meetings, but the fact is we do need to showcase the best of our sport far more effectively than we do at present. Remembering this has been put out shortly after the white paper on gambling, bigging horse racing up as a sport and not just a gambling medium does seem a sensible move to me, and unlike the “good old days” we have to remember that football and other sports are competing with us for both spectators and the betting pound, we need to look to capture as many new fans as we can. Spacing out the races on a Saturday will hopefully leave room for behind the scenes tours and concise interesting interviews with connections as opposed to the quick throw away lines we are all used to, to garner a genuine interest form the next generation, and not just “£10 win number 3 please” – we are NOT greyhound racing! Sunday evening racing seems to have caused the most discontent amongst racings’s great and good, and I have to say that the HBF survey we recently completed suggested punters were far from keen, but I can see it as a time slot when people are twiddling their thumbs – no football on TV, and an evening off before going back to the grind on Monday morning. Yes I do appreciate the stable staff issues, but firstly I am hoping there will be some kind of financial recompense for staff working on the Sunday evening, and that if there is less racing midweek to balance things out, trainers can give staff time off then instead? The bottom line is we cannot sit back and try nothing while our sport continues to fester – whether these are the answers only time will tell, but as my old boss used to say (and the ONLY management speak I ever agreed with), “don’t bring me problems, bring me solutions” – plenty ore moaning, but they are the same people whining about the state of the sport, and I haven’t heard them come up with an alternative (workable) plan just yet.
HBF Survey in full here for those interested https://ukhbf.org/horseracing-bettors-forum-survey-2023/
On to the racing…and it’s the full Epsom card on ITV this Saturday and you can listen to our views on the Podcast here is you prefer? https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2023/06/02/the-derby-premierisation-and-our-winner-is/
12.50pm Epsom
A Group Three over a mile plus kicks off proceedings on Derby day, and the first thing I noticed was that 17 three-year-olds have tried to win this over the last 26 years – and not one has been successful. Andrew Balding has won this three times from 10 attempts while and he is represented here with Imperial Fighter who may yet outrun his current price of 16/1. Highland Avenue heads the market after his third to Adayar at Newmarket and although he looks plenty short enough for my liking for a horse without a win since April 2021, his is probably the best form on offer. The fact that Godolphin keep him in training suggests they are convinced he has more wins in him, though this is a tricky little race to start the card.
1.30pm Epsom
It feels super strange to see the Derby so early on the card thanks to the FA Cup final (why not last?) but here we go with the fourth of the five Classics for 2023. 21 of the last 26 winners have come from the first four in the betting which may prove telling come race time, and it will be interesting to see if that statistic holds up this season. I do appreciate that Passenger did not have the best of runs in the Dante and he has to make the shortlist, but I cannot work out why White Birch is more than twice his price after finishing like a train over the mile and a quarter that day, and looking sure to be better suited by this trip. I think he can go well again here if he handles the undulations (he can take a while to get into top gear), but preference remains with Auguste Rodin. I backed him and tipped him for the 2000 Guineas where he ran no race at all, but he has always been seen as a middle distance horse and this is his chance to show his true class. He is reported to have been working really well recently and has been supported in the market accordingly, and having seen his stable companion Little Big Bear bounce back to form last week, I am hoping Ryan Moore’s mount can do the same thing here.
2.10pm Epsom
23 of the last 26 winners came home in the first six last time out and that seems a good place to start, even if it does only discount two of the six declared. Three and four year olds have dominated in recent years, only one winner was rated below 100, all bar one had raced three times or less this season, and if those hold true, I now have a shortlist of Astral Beau and Prosperous Voyage. Of that pair, Falmouth Stakes winner Prosperous Voyage stands out having already won at the highest level, representing a stable in good form in Ralph Beckett, and if we forgive her a below par return at Newmarket in the Group Two Dahlia Stakes on softer ground when she weakened over slightly further, then she has an outstanding chance in this company.
2.45pm Epsom
The very first running of this sprint restricted to three-year-olds so no stats to work with and a tough race to even attempt to call. We do not have a single course winner to guide us, and with 14 runners and 13 of those a distance winner, this is going to be hard work! Adrian Nicholls is a trainer I have all the time in the world for, and blinkers certainly worked at the first attempt on Can To Can last time out when the son of Kodiac made all at Newcastle over the five furlongs, staying on well to score by five lengths. He has been put up a big 10lb for that and won’t find this quite as easy, but if he can slip his field here he may take some catching late on and at 8/1 or thereabouts, I will be backing him each way.
3.20pm Epsom
With successes from the one to the 19 stall the draw doesn’t tell us much of any use I am sorry to say, and with winners at odds up to 50/1 in the last ten years, it seems all things are possible. With the favourite currently trading at 7/1 we know this is a tough conundrum to solve, but I do note that of those to come here after running in the five-furlong handicap at Chester in May on their previous start –four have won. This year that race was won by Nymphadora, with Lihou in third (beaten three lengths), and Look Out Louis a 20 length last, and as the suggestion is already a course and distance winner here which is a tick in an important box, he may come out in front again this afternoon.
3.55pm Epsom
The great Lester Piggott deserves more than a handicap named after him in my opinion but that’s politics I suppose, and we are in the business of looking for winners. Andrew Balding has won three of the last five renewals which suggests we should have a long hard look at Kadovar, who is also the only course winner in this field after scoring over a mile plus here in April. He did follow that off 9lb higher with a poor run at Haydock over a mile, but he may do better off 1lb lower upped in trip and on this quicker going. He can go well but I narrowly prefer the chances of the Charlie Johnston trained Perfect Play as an each way option. He showed seriously improved form to win last time out at Chester which is promising for the undulations here, and an added 5lb from the handicapper may not be enough to stop a follow up victory.
4.30pm Epsom
A mile and a half handicap comes next on the list and it’s a tough one to call though I do think (or hope), but if Max Mayhem improves for his first start of the year, then he looks to have as good a chance as any. Benoit De La Sayette is a jockey we will be hearing a lot more of over the years ahead and he rides the five-year-old again this afternoon. His win at Kempton was a narrow one but it was his first start since last October and his first since arriving from Ireland suggesting he may have more to offer, and if that is the case he may hold off the attentions of Sea King who looks his most obvious rival.
5.05pm Epsom
One race to go and this time we have a six furlong handicap sponsored by the Japan Racing Association (JRA) and won by Mr Wagyu last year, though he needs to step up on his recent York seventh if he wants to follow up, racing off 2lb higher in 2023, though to be fair he did win at The Curragh off 100 last summer! The statistics tell me very little other than the fact that every winner had raced within the last 60 days, but that fact only removes two from a field of 19, and isn’t much use on its own. Count Otto is well-handicapped on his best efforts and could surprise a few at odds around the 50/1 mark if he can bounce back to form as a C&D winner, but I wonder if Probe is still a step ahead of the handicapper? Although he won a couple of races over further for Dermot Weld in Ireland he has been a revelation since moving to the Jennie Candlish yard with wins at Wolverhampton and Newmarket from three starts including last time out when he was produced late to win going away. He will need the run of the race to be produced late again here, but he stays further and won’t be stopping if he gets a clear passage, and that may be all he needs to go in again.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Probe 5.05pm Epsom each way
Comments