Plenty to chat about this week but more importantly, the sun is shining, lockdown is (hopefully) drawing to a close, crowds are back at the racetracks, and all is good in my World. Sadly, racing is going through a bit of a rough patch as far as I can see, and much as I am not one of life’s moaners, it feels like that with more negatives than positives to report week on week – someone has to do it I suppose and these things do need brining to the racing fans’ attention.
First up and a friend of mine contacted me last week to discuss ante post bets after the usual Aidan O’Brien Derby battalions were quickly whittled down to a very unusual single runner from the yard for the Epsom derby. For those who don’t know me, I rarely back antepost for exactly that reason – yes you can steal a better price in advance but the balance is loaded in the bookmakers favour with late withdrawals, going changes, injuries, and simply other targets. You win some and you lose some I suppose, but the question I was asked is just how much the bookmakers make from “wasted” antepost bets. If only I, or anyone else had the answer, there is more chance of me deciphering the Rosetta Stone than getting that information out of the bookies who understandably) keep their cards close to their chest, but I suspect the percentage of profit is exceptionally high which is why it is clearly labelled top secret. Personally, I asked for a price many years ago about an unraced two-year-old for the following year’s 1000 Guineas and struggled to get 33/1 – for me that shows how uninterested (or suspicious) they are, and if you think about the value (which is the objective) then that is a price Dick Turpin would be proud of. The filly concerned needed to be as good as I hoped, prove her ability to run in a classic, be the owners best filly to make the line up (we were talking Hamdan Al Maktoum), train on at three, remain uninjured, get her ground, and turn up on the day – plenty of questions for a 33/1 chance and no real value and one of the last ante post bets I ever struck for all the right reasons.
Back to my hobby horse now and what is going on in the betting industry. I have been bombarded this week with horror stories of Spanish inquisition style lists of questions my friends have been asked to answer just to keep their betting accounts open, and I can also add that most have point blank refused – but where does that leave racing? It doesn’t matter what way you cut the cake, racing takes and needs money from the bookmakers to survive, be that on profits or turnover, and surely both will diminish rapidly if people are leaving the sport in droves. To the best of my knowledge bookmakers do not have the facilities in place to guarantee any information given is secure enough for my liking (it needs to be to bank standards or better), so why would I hand over my life story to them regardless? It does feel that having a bet, however small, now makes me a social pariah (the on-line equivalent of smoky betting shops and unsavoury characters), et no one seems to be clamping down on chain smokers buying more fags or alcoholics buying drink – so why can’t I choose to spend my money in a betting shop without “nanny state” interference?
More bad news for the sport, all be it over the pond, with Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit’s second sample testing positive for a prohibited substance, meaning his disqualification is now a mere formality. I have no axe to grind with Bob Baffert but either the American racing authorities are singling him out for excess attention, or something is badly wrong in his barn with minor indiscretion after minor discretion in recent years, and it will be interesting to see if he is as bulletproof as some think – or will he be punished as other trainers would in the circumstances.
On to the racing and as always, anyone who want to hear my dulcet tones (or can’t get to sleep easily), the bones of my article plus other’s opinions can be heard on the free of charge podcast here https://postracing.co.uk/2021/06/04/the-derby-who-cares-when-you-have-a-20-runner-handicap-to-chew-on/
Saturday Racing:
Eagle Farm 6.53am
As mentioned before I can’t really harp on about the big wide world of horse racing without throwing the odd curve ball in to my articles and this week we have the Queensland Oaks from Eagle Farm, so get up early, brew up a beverage, and enjoy. As always in Australia (Winx or Black Caviar aside, of course), this looks competitive enough but there is every reason it should fall to one of three – Duais, Media Award, or Bargain. The selection is not the current favourite thanks to a poor draw but Hugh Bowman won’t care too much about that as his mount who likes to race from off the pace, though there is an issue that some of these won’t stay and he could run in to traffic problems. If he does, then Media Award looks the bigger danger but as neither are an each way price, I will stick with just the one selection who is nailed on to run a big race after her Australian Oaks second to Hungry Heart who thankfully does not turn out here.
Epsom 2.35pm
A mile plus for the “ladies” here and a race won by some decent sorts over the years, and 2021 sees a good sized field go in to battle. Statistically, five-year-olds have the best record if you look at their percentage strike rate (20% to be precise), but the bookies seem aware of that fact and have both Maamora and Posted near to the head of the betting, and aren’t giving anything away. Maamora likes to bowl along at the head of affairs but there are plenty of stalkers in this line-up and I would be surprised if she can repel all challengers close home this afternoon, and will look elsewhere for my suggestion. It’s a risk I accept, but Roger Varian’s Nazuna was decent as a two-year-old with a maiden win at Doncaster and placed second in the Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket, three and a bit lengths clear of the third, before a one paced tenth in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Mile when either outclassed or tired after a long hard season. It is a concern that she missed the 1000 Guineas which would no doubt have been her first target, and you do have to wonder why, but the suspicion is that she is better than this class and if that is correct, she can pick the leaders off late on and land her second career success.
Epsom 3.10pm
Same trip as the 2.35pm but this time we are talking colts and geldings as well as the fairer sex. Century Dream has already won this race twice and gets to carry three pounds less this season than when successful last year (though that was at Newbury), which suggests he has a an excellent chance. I cannot emphasise enough what a strange track Epsom is, and horses either take to – or they don’t – making his winning course form all the more important. He won’t be far away again today but I am wary that the sun continues to shine and that all his winning form has been on good or softer and there is a chance that it could well ride faster than that by Saturday afternoon. A chance is taken instead on Andrew Balding’s Bell Rock, the winner of a Class Two handicap at Newmarket on Good to Firm last time out over a furlong further. He did wander a little when running on late that day but may be better suited by a fast run mile this afternoon, and as that was his first start since October, I would expect him to strip fitter today. This is new territory for him I accept (though he ran in even better races early in his career), and at odds of 6/1 or so he looks to have an outstanding each way chance.
Epsom 3.45pm
Who doesn’t love a 20 runner sprint handicap (other than me of course), but I try to add one every week to at least talk about as I know plenty out there just love them. Once again I will dig though statistics, though I have given up on finding the winner – I am just hoping that something I uncover along the line points you in the right direction. Starting with the draw and despite elsewhere suggesting high has an advantage, the results for this race are all over the place, with the 10 stall (smack bang in the middle today) responsible for the most winners with four winners from 22 starters and a level stakes profit of 16 points – go figure. Interestingly stalls four to seven are without a winner between them and as a starting point, I will get rid of them in the hope that stat continues. Just the sixteen runners to go and weights are my next port of call, and with only one winner carrying less than eight stone five, we can get rid of three more. An eight year old has won this – but just the one of them, and none older than that so bye-bye to Blue De Vega and Pettochside more on age grounds (is that ageist of me?), and now we are down to a slightly more workable 11 horses. Perhaps amazingly (well, it surprised me), only one horse has taken this after winning last time out (from 45 attempts),and if we are looking for value that is a great stat as we can discount the chances of Only Spoofing, Recon Mission and Rose Hip, and that means we have put a line through 12 runners including plenty of the shorter priced options. Time to be brave now, and with just the one winner carrying nine-stone-ten or more farewell to joint favourite Stone of Destiny and 14/1 chance Exalted Angel, and that will do for stats, it is decision time. The six to play with are Sunday Sovereign, Copper Knight, Mondammej, Yimou, Han Solo Berger, and Get Boosting, and I will play 10p tricasts (in the hope of striking lucky), but have come down on the side of Copper Knight as my each way selection. Trainer Tim Easterby has his horses in good form, the horse handles the going however quick it may get, has won off higher marks in the past, and was unlucky in running here in 2019 on his only start at Epsom – but he did seem to handle the course. 8/1 isn’t a good price considering he comes out of the 16 stall (one win from 17 runners in the last 23 years), but I have put the work in and can’t get away from him now.
Epsom 4.30pm
Whoever thought we would see an Epsom Derby with just one O’Brien runner – or see it called the Cazoo Derby come to that – but here we are for the premier mile and a half race for three-year-olds, though possibly a shadow of its former self in terms of prestige. Bolshoi Ballet could well be as good as they think, but the short price is surely based on the Aidan O‘Brien factor with the trainer responsible for six of the last ten winners, an outstanding statistic. However, before we get too excited by the son of Galileo, it needs pointing out that although he took the Group Three Beresford Stakes by six lengths, the runner up is a maiden winner who has been beaten five lengths in Listed class since, so I am less inspired than some by the form. Admittedly the fourth won the Irish 2000 Guineas next time out dropped back to a mile, so mixed messages, but 5/4 is too skinny for me to get involved. John Leeper would be popular for Ed Dunlop being named after his father but he has plenty to find in my opinion, while Mac Swiney needs to prove his stamina and has plenty to find with the favourite regardless. Hurricane Lane remains unbeaten and won’t go down without a fight but at 6/1 I will be backing Mohaafeth each way. The William Haggas trained son of Frankel could not have been any more impressive than when winning at Newmarket last time out, bounding clear for a five length success, and although this is tougher (and over further), if he gets the trip he may yet have the better turn of foot when the chips are down up the home straight.
Musselburgh 4.00pm
Further north for our final British race of the day and a seven furlong contest for fillies and mares aged three and above. This may “only” be Listed class but it still looks fiercely competitive on paper, with my preference being the Jessica Harrington trained Zaffy’s Pride who hasn’t gone through all the post-Brexit rigamarole for no good reason. Her early season form in Ireland gave her an each way squeak in the Irish 1000 Guineas but the heavy going that day scuppered any chance she had of getting the mile and she trailed home last after getting badly hampered. The better going here and drop back in trip and class look just about perfect and I see no reason to look elsewhere.
Belmont Park 11.49pm
Off to the good old U S of A for our last race, and an eight runner Belmont Stakes, the last of the American Triple Crown in a very strange season. The early betting sees Essential Quality heading the market and I feel he can land the odds of Godolphin here having shipped in from Churchill Down in the last few days. Forced to race wide on the Kentucky Derby before finishing fourth, he may well have had to give more lengths away than he was beaten at the line, though be warned, this was never his intended target with a longer break anticipated. That said, he has been working so well, “He’s a monster right now” according to trainer Brad Cox, that they felt they just had to run him, and with over £600,000 to the winner, who can blame them. Amazingly, his trainer could yet end up as the Kentucky Derby winner if Medina Spirit is disqualified and Mandaloun gets given the race, and if he can double up here then he will have had a season to remember. Of the others, Rombauer and Hot Rod Charlie can go well, but on form it is really all about the one horse, and if he should prove more than difficult to beat.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Essential Quality 11.49pm Belmont Park Saturday
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