I am determined to try and keep the waffle down to a minimum (so you can stay awake) but I have to at least comment on the civil war between the Jockey Club and ARC over the proposed reduction in the number of races and or fixtures next year. In my fairly uneducated view we have polar opposites here, one a centuries old establishment who put any profits back in to their tracks via new facilities maintenance and so on – the other a modern company looking, quite rightly, to make money for their shareholders – and never the twain shall meet. The problem is simple enough – too much racing means small fields ,a loss in betting turnover, and isn’t good for the sport – but life isn’t as simple as that. Broadly speaking the Jockey Club put on the better racing so they wants the cull to be at the lower end – ARC unsurprisingly argue their races are better subscribed, and the cuts should come elsewhere – but the truth is far more complicated. If there were less lower-class races, would the same horses be effectively forced in to the better races, giving us some more competitive handicaps – or is that thought a fantasy? Truth is, I don’t think anybody knows for certain, but what we do know is something needs to happen and fast – small fields are a turn off to us punters who will soon find other places to spend their hard earned money.
On a more positive note, what did everyone else think of the Guineas last weekend? Firstly, I am made up for James Doyle who is one of the most unassuming jockeys I have had the privilege of spending time with and from a racing dynasty (try crossing his mother – I dare you), and it honestly could not have happened to anyone more deserving. Despite backing Native Trail (it’s only money I suppose), Coroebus was a worthy winner on the day, though there is a school of thought that if the Godolphin pair had swapped sides in the draw, the result would have been the other way round. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but take nothing away from a super ride as he stole first run on his stable companion and held him off quite comfortably at the line.
Sundays 1000 Guineas was more of a muddle in my eyes, with a mixture of would-be Oaks fillies and sprinters, with the winner perhaps the only true miler in the line-up. I am less convinced than some by the long-term value of the form with a 16/1 winner in Cachet, a 33/1 runner-up in Prosperous Voyage, and a one-paced third with Oaks hopeful Tuesday running on the spot in third. Taking nothing away from the winner I really do not feel this was a vintage renewal, and if we don’t see a better filly winning at Royal Ascot, I will be surprised.
And so, it’s time for the racing…
Saturday
Ascot 2.20pm
The fact that I am delighted to see an eight-runner field tells its own story, and I had to decide between the short-priced favourite – and an each-way alternative. Cowardice has prevailed, and the wallet will open for the William Haggas trained Al Aaasy, who is being given a sensible return to the track without being overfaced ahead of bigger assignments. Gelded last summer after some good runs including wins at Group Three level, he didn’t really bounce back as hoped, but with another winter on his back, he will be bigger and stronger this season, and with his stable in good form, and eight pounds in hand according to the official ratings, he is difficult to oppose assuming he is race fit for his first start of the year.
Lingfield 2.40pm
A small but select field for the Lingfield Derby trial next, but I am less convinced than the rest of the racing media that this is all over bar the shouting – and I won’t be having a bet. Walk Of Stars was less than impressive when winning by a neck at Newbury and should not be odds-on in my view, not with the Aidan O’Brien beginning to fire in winners left right and centre, and represented by United nations who looked likely to improve when fourth at Epsom on his return. Add in the unbeaten supposed Godolphin second-string Natural World, and this looks more competitive than I would like it to be, so its Walk Of Stars for me – but with very little confidence.
Lingfield 3.15pm
Emily Dickinson still looked pretty green when winning at Naas last time out and can only improve as she gains in experience, but I get the feeling that the Gosdens have a string full of top class fillies this year, and that Belt Buckle is being sent here as a test to see just how good the others really are. She won by a neck first time out at Wolverhampton on the all-weather but should prove to be even better over further and on the grass, and her stable have won three of the last five runnings of this race which has to be a positive, though in all honestly not one of these runners has proved they are up to Listed class let alone a classic, and this is anything but a vintage renewal.
Lingfield 3.50pm
When you have a Group Three contest and only one runner is rated 100 or more, then you really have to worry about the state of British racing at this exact moment in time. The filly concerned is the Richard Hannon trained Symphony Perfect, a daughter of Fast Company who has already won in Listed class at Newmarket in the Bosra Sham Stakes last October, and she ran her best race of this year when second to Tippy Toes at Chelmsford. That race was over six furlongs, but she ran on well at the death, and although historically three-year-olds don’t have a great record in this race, I am hoping she can be the exception to that rule at an each-way price.
Haydock 3.55pm
Sometimes I wonder why I bother when we have an odds on favourite in Aldaary but so be it, and who is to say he is the proverbial good thing anyway? He did win his last two races of 2021 at Ascot in class two handicaps, and his stable are in good form – but I cannot agree with his price for an instant. I haven’t been drinking (well, not yet), but I am going to oppose him with a silly bet here at a massive price. Sir Dancelot used to be in the hands of the now retired David Elsworth where he won 10 races, eight of them over the seven furlongs he faces here, with four of those at Group Two level, something the favourite simply cannot boast. Rated 116 at his peak that is 2lb higher than the jolly, and although not at that form recently with a fifth in the Group Two Lennox Stakes at Goodwood in 2020 his last start, who is to say his winnings days are behind him? Now in the care of John Butler, we do have to take his fitness on trust after such a long time off the track, but at 25/1 or bigger there are reasons to think he could go well, and at that price, how can I resist a little each way punt – just in case.
Churchill Downs 11.57pm
And so we move on to the Kentucky Derby, the one race I have focussed on during a star-studded racecard at Churchill Downs and one of the most important if not THE most important on the American calendar. Bob Baffert has won this race three times in the last seven years (four if you include the disqualified Medina Spirit last season), but he is conspicuous by his absence as the courts decide if his ban should stand or not – and for how long. Step forward the little-known Tim Yakteen, who has officially taken on some of the Baffert horses, but is seen by some as the name on the paperwork (think Gordon Elliott and Sneezy Foster). He has both Taiba and Messier in here, first and second in the Santa Anita Derby and in with solid chances here. I don’t want to even think about the fall out if either of those two come home in front (with preference for the former with Mike Smith in the saddle), and my thoughts lie with two alternatives. Blue Grass Stakes winner Zandon has been catching the eye of those getting up early in the mornings to watching them work (many of my friends among them), but they have also been pretty taken with Crown Pride, who is five times the price. To the best of my knowledge, no Japanese horse has even tried to win the Kentucky Derby before let alone been successful, but connections of the son of Reach The Crown are breaking new ground. Lightly raced with four starts, three of them winning ones, including the UAE Derby at Meydan last time out, he has been really catching the eye in his morning spins, and with the excellent Christophe-Patrice Lemaire in the saddle (to use his full name), he won’t be lacking any assistance from the saddle and could surprise them all at a massive price.
Sean Suggestions:
Symphony Perfect 3.50pm Lingfield
Comments