As racing continues behind closed doors the coffers must be running dry on a month by month basis and a fear for the one thing that makes the UK stand out from the rest of the racing nations – the massive variety of our many tracks for such a small country (geographically at least).
The thought proves at present seems to be to push forward booking from this season to next (when a customer agrees to that which leaves the money in the bank), but that seems to be robbing Peter to pay Paul and even if we are back on track by summer 2021, they will then have to provide the facilities, food, drink etc with no additional income, so I am not sure how that works as a business proposal?
I gather some tracks had the foresight to take out insurance so they should be OK (for now), but more worryingly for me, those tracks who have always seen their acreage as a potential money maker via planning permission in the future, could now use the situation in their favour, close down for racing blaming Covid, and some of our better racing institutions could be a housing estate within a year. Funnily enough I am not convinced the smaller tracks will be the ones to go (those in the sticks are worth far less for building as a sweeping comment), and I would be far more wary of those in or near to towns or cities, though fingers crossed I am just being glass half empty kind of person today.
Meanwhile, Ladbrokes and Corals (who are one and the same under a single owner) have stepped away from the betting ring, which seems to ring the deal knell for the on-course starting prices. The industry has been providing their own since behind closed doors racing and overall (note the wording), the prices have in fact been slightly better for the punter, but there is a caveat to that I’m afraid. The first three in the betting have, according to HBF statistics, shortened under industry SP while the outsiders have lengthened to balance that out with a fraction overall in the punters favour. Sounds good until you realise that over 70% of all bets are on the ones at or near the head of the market and you can soon see that they are paying out extra pennies on the rags - and reaping in extra pounds on the jollies. Those sitting back oblivious are going to hit themselves in the pocket without even realising the damage done and all I can add is the HBF and others will be watching the odds very carefully for the foreseeable future and reporting their findings to the powers that be.
That is the bad news out of the way for this week so time to start looking for a few winners. I can probably jump a fence slightly better than Pileon did for us last Saturday (if you can’t jump you can’t win), so the only way is up – off to Wetherby for Starters.
2.10pm Wetherby
Just the seven runners declared for this Listed event over two miles and restricted to the fairer sex i.e. mares only. The last ten renewals have never seen a winner at odds bigger than 7/2 which suggests top class mares are few and far between, and if that trend continues and the tissue is remotely accurate, only one of Verdana Blue and Whitehotchillifili can come home in front. The first named is so often a “nearly” horse (or she is whenever I back her) and was beaten six lengths at odds on in a similar race two weeks ago despite having a fitness advantage after an outing on the flat, suggesting that despite being 22lbs clear on the official ratings, she is no good thing. Harry Fry can get them fit after a long lay-off so Whitehotchillfili could go well, though I narrowly prefer Mrs Hyde for the forecast in a race I rather doubt I bother having a bet in at the tissue prices.
2.45pm Wetherby
A classy looking three mile hurdle here reminding me of one of the main reasons I still enjoy National Hunt racing, renewing acquaintances with old friends who I have followed, profitably or otherwise, in years past. Wholestone would be an example here with Nigel Twiston-Davies’ nine-year-old a very decent sort who his handler thought was good enough to win a Stayers Hurdle, but not yet I’m afraid and looking less and less likely as age catches up with him. He will go well here hopefully as will Lisnagar Oscar, the shock 50/1 winner of the 2020 Stayers Hurdle, but not seen since and burdened with a six pound penalty for that win here which will not help his chances. Copperhead returns to hurdles after doing well over fences last season with wins at Wincanton, Newbury, and Ascot, and could be seen as the main danger to the top weight here if he can convert his form over fences back to the smaller obstacles, and at the 9/1 available at present I am sorely tempted. Still a youngster at the age of six, his best years ought to lay ahead of him, and although he was last seen falling in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham won by Champ, he could make them all go a bit here. One other horse really intrigues (and I will be watching the betting accordingly) when Next Destination has his debut for Paul Nicholls. Not many horses transfer out of the Willie Mullins stable to the Nicholls yard at Ditcheat and after over two and a half years off all I can suggest sensibly is a watching brief, yet his hurdling form from 2017/2018 is top class and includes wins at Naas (twice), Navan, and Punchestown in very decent races as well as a third to Samcro at Cheltenham in the Ballymore Hurdle. Originally expected to go chasing in Ireland he has switched countries and remains over hurdles here, and it will be interesting to see if he is now over his issues in which case he would be a major contender in my eyes, with his race fitness the only black mark against him I can find.
3.20pm Wetherby
Nigel Twiston-Davies has won two of the last three runnings of this contest, including last season with Ballyoptic who is back for seconds this season, with Sam Twiston-Davies in the saddle. On official ratings he has a solid enough chance but and he can go well first time out, though it is noted that last season he had prepped with a win at Chepstow and this year he arrives without a run. Cyrname sits proud at the top of both the weights and the betting for Paul Nicholls and is seen as top class at home, but he was already beaten when falling last time out at Ascot and may not be the machine some seem to think (famous last words). La Bague Au Roi is expected to show improvement after a wind operation and could surprise a few, but it’s the younger less experienced Sam Spinner that I will turn to here. Way above average over hurdles with a second to Paisley Park in the 2019 Stayers Hurdle the standout form, he remains unbeaten over fences after two wins here (including one over this trip) and a thirty-eight length romp at Doncaster in December. He missed both Cheltenham and Aintree after a minor injury but that could yet be a blessing in disguise. Trainer Jedd O’Keeffe reports the eight-year-old to be “… in really good order. His preparation has gone absolutely to plan, and we are as ready as we want to be for Saturday” which has to be seen as encouraging, and with the jolly yet to prove he is bullet proof, the son of Sam Bellamy will do for me on this occasion.
2.32pm Ascot
With £12,000 in guaranteed prize money this shy of two mile novice hurdle deserves to be covered though I can’t pretend to say I approach it with any confidence from a betting perspective. Nicky Henderson has won three of the last eight runnings and is represented here by Captain Morgs who has had the one start so far when a neck runner-up in a Warwick bumper. A choicely bred son of Milan and out of a Beneficial mare he certainly looks the sort to win a few races for The Albatross Club and seems sure to arrive here well-schooled by his ultra-efficient stable. Fearless arrives here with a massive experience advantage after four starts over hurdles and a win at Market Rasen as well as the same PRR of 123 as last year’s winner, but he has to give six pounds away all around and may well find this a far trickier task. Aronius intrigues for Dan Skelton on his first start in the UK after last being seen on the flat in Switzerland but us impossible to accurately assess, leading me to an each way alternative in the Colin Tizzard trained Striking A Pose. A twenty-five length point to point winner at Brocklesby Park in February, he made his debut over hurdles at Newton Abbot earlier this month when looking a little one-paced and should do be better over further (and over fences) in time, but they look to have found a race he can go close in here and if kept up with the early pace, he may run in to the first three home and at a half decent price.
3.05pm Ascot
I rarely if ever dabble in handicaps as I struggle enough to find the best horse in a race, let alone after the dreaded handicapper has had their say to make things all the more confusing. Looking back at old results and no great shock to see the bigger stables involved with five-year-olds responsible for seven of the last ten to lead them all home. Amazingly, if that stat is to stand up here then there can only be the one winner with Scaramanga the only runner of that age group. Trainer Paul Nicholls trains the son of Mastercraftsman but also has Malaya in here with Bryony Frost on board, and you would have to think he was the stable first string which is enough to put me off. The handicap itself offer few clues with just the twelve pounds between all ten of them, and we may do better watching the betting for more clues on the day, especially if there is any more cash for Kid Commando, who has been well backed since the early prices came out. Trained by Anthony Honeyball he won his first start over hurdles at Plumpton in January and followed that with a solid third to Highway One O Two at Kempton. Ten lengths in front of favourite Buzz that day at level weights, he is somehow rated a pound lower than that today which suggests to me he may be very well handicapped at present. With the money down I will stick with the six-year-old though I am very wary of Countister who is slipping down to a winning mark again now and may not find this company quite as exacting as those he has been up against recently.
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Sean’s Suggestions:
Copperhead each way 2.45pm Wetherby Saturday
Kid Commando 3.05pm Ascot Saturday
Sam Spinner 3.20pm Wetherby
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