ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
Short and sweet this week for two very good reasons – one it’s my birthday and two, I am already beavering away ahead of Cheltenham next week which will keep me out of mischief!
As you may have heard (anyone out there listen to BBC Radio 4?), I was live on a chat show Monday lunchtime arguing against affordability checks in their current guise with MP Ronnie Cowan in the opposite corner. It was never a scenario either side was going to “win” but I do hope I got our point across to those unfamiliar with the situation, without decrying those with a genuine gambling problem, however small their number may be as a percentage of the millions who enjoy a bet well within their means?
As mentioned, Cheltenham is sneaking up on us (starts next Tuesday as most of you will know), but the perils of ante-post betting have reared their ugly head with the sad news that Constitution Hill misses the Champion Hurdle. With an odds-on shot replaced with a different odds on shot (State Man) the race is pointless as a betting medium, and although we all agree the jollies can be beaten, the fact is that the Festival is losing a touch of its shine as there is little point in opening the betting wallet for 1/3 shots in my opinion.
More of that next week, I have candles to blow out - so just the three horses this weekend, and best of luck to anyone brave enough to play on the horrendous going expected at Sandown…
It may be the weekend already but most of us are already in “Cheltenham mode” with the biggest meeting of the year starting on Tuesday afternoon, but we have room to find some winners before then, so here we go! I remain far from convinced that Sandown will ride on the soft side after torrential rain in recent weeks but that is the current going description, and if that is the case then Gary Moore’s Through The Ages could land his hat-trick in the opening contest at 1.15pm. Bought for £100,000 as a maiden on the Flat for Charlie Appleby, the son of Golden Horn was a well-beaten third on his Huntingdon debut over hurdles, but has clearly done nothing but improve since with very easy wins at Newbury and Plumpton on similar going, and if he takes another step forward this is his for a the taking at a track where his trainer loves to have a winner.
The Imperial Cup at 2.25pm is the big race of the day and has attracted a competitive field for the £50,000 plus winner’s prize, but with winners at odds of 33/1 and 20/1 (twice) in the last 10 renewals, nothing is guaranteed, with the last winning jolly to land the odds way back in 2010. This looks like a race to attack via statistics in the hunt for an each way play, and the first thing I noted was that all bar one of the last 15 winners had come home in the first seven if they completed last time out. If that stat holds up we can say goodbye to top-weight Spirit D’Aunou though that still leaves 15 others! No winners bigger than 40/1 loses Goonhilly at the current odds, while all the winners in the 15 years covered were aged five to eight – so bid farewell to Faivoir, Lively Citizen, and Irish raider Minx Tiara. All were officially rated 124 or above (delete Junkanoo) and lower than 137 (Metier), none had raced in the last 15 days (Shared, and current favourite Jipcot), and suddenly we have a shortlist of just seven - Knickerbockerglory, Sans Bruit, Making Headway, Go Dante, Bashers Reflection, Bad, and Georgie Girl with the winner statistically likely to come from that group. Paul Nicholls has the most interesting one in the shape of the ex-French Sans Bruit, six times a winner on the other side of the Chanel, and with only the one run under his belt when seventh at Doncaster for his new connections. This will be his second run after wind surgery which catches the eye, as does the drop back to two miles in a truly run contest which may well see him in a better light, and as his trainer has won this twice and placed three other times in the last 15 runnings, an each way bet will do for me.
It must be frustrating for the UK trainers to see the Irish raiders coming over more and more often outside of the Festivals, but that is the case again at Ayr this afternoon when the highly promising Sea God makes his debut over hurdles in the Novice Hurdle from Ayr at 1.23pm. A five-year-old son of Sea Moon he won his only point-to-point at Charlton Horethorn by five lengths with ease in March last year before being sold on for £50,000 before making his debut under rules in a Carlisle bumper which he took by 15 lengths at odds-on in a two horse debacle. That told us absolutely nothing to be fair, but the step up in trip and some obstacles ought to see him in a better light this afternoon, though it does amuses me that the John McConnell trained beast is based in County Meath – but us yet to have a single start in Ireland!
Sean’s Suggestions:
Sea God 1.23pm Ayr Saturday to win.
Comments