Happy New Year one and all, I hope you have come back refreshed from your breaks and are looking forward to finding plenty of winners in 2023 – I know I am. Before we get down to the nitty gritty, good or bad, we need to at least mention a few stories in the World of horse racing, starting with the retirement of jockey turned trainer Freddie Head. These things make me feel very old (yes, I know), and I remember the jokes when he was a jockey about him getting lost up the Rowley mile at Newmarket a few times, but laugher aside, racing will miss him without any doubt. Close to 3,000 winners and six French Championships from the saddle left him with a lot to live up to when he changed tack to become a trainer, but we should have know with his pedigree that he would be a success, and who can forget the legendary Goldikova, the winner of 14 Group Ones including the Breeders’ Cup Mile not once but three times, not bad for a horse described as a pony by our American cousins. I only met him the once, in Singapore of all places, and he was polite to the media (unlike some I could mention) and surprisingly happy to have a chat – though if I am honest I was a little starstruck and probably asked him the most ridiculous questions. Thankfully, the Head family will continue in the training ranks via son Christopher and daughter Victoria and although the 75-year-old may not have his name on a licence any more, I would be surprised if he doesn’t offer up a little advice to his children every now and then.
Meanwhile, you will have seen the racing has been a bit (rhymes with hit) recently, and I have to wonder whether a short break would be good for everyone. National Hunt racing has taken a back seat in recent days and is outnumbered by the all-weather cards but surely they could serve up something on of a higher standard than the dross we are currently being expected to bet on, maybe a Listed race or two, and something to attract the racegoers while there is very little choice? When you follow the sport as we do it is annoying when all we have is bookmaker fodder, basically awful racing for people to bet on if they need to (and boy would you need to), and that just isn’t good enough for me, though I can add that there are plans for the future about to be put in place (very hush hush), and I am hoping 2024 will see this nonsense done away with.
Lastly, I note the Racing Post have come up with their campaign of A Year To Save Racing, and although that could be seen as an overreaction, I can at least see where they are coming from. Racing as we know it is not in the best of health and is on some kind of life-support I suppose for want of a better term, and although I am confident it will survive in some form, it may not be as we know it – but is that necessarily a bad thing. In simple terms (and I am hoping to be better educated via meetings with the BHA in the weeks and months ahead), we have what the gambling lobby would consider the perfect storm. Whether they like to admit it or not, the levy, which is basically a tax on bookmaker turnover/profits, comes via the punter, who in turn are underrepresented on every committee and have zero say (though I am working on that so please be patient). Small fields and too much racing are already seeing punters walk away (where is the fun in trying to find the winner of a three horse race when the outsider is 3/1), which is already eating in to the numbers, and when the Gambling Act Review is finally published, we all expect to see some limitations with regard to how much we can all bet per month thanks to the long arm of the Nanny State. That cannot be a good combination for even the biggest optimist, though I fear the Racing Post campaign may be at least part-thwarted by their long-running partnerships with the bookmakers via advertising, which leaves the majority of us at least a fraction wary of their long-term motives.
Fancy a podcast instead of tiring out those post-Christmas bloodshot eyes – go here https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2023/01/06/the-winner-of-the-2024-brown-advisory-cheltenham-2024 for my views and those of Ron Robinson of Post Racing fame.
On to the racing:
Saturday
Sandown 12.05pm
Nothing like a juvenile hurdle to start proceedings and one where we have seen three odds-on favourites winning in a row, with Gary Moore winning three of the last 10 renewals, including the last two with Hudson De Grugy (5/6) in 2021, and Moulins Clermont (5/6) last season. Both arrived as maidens over hurdles as have seven in the last decade, a fact worth noting, with his entry this year (Bo Zenith) the winner of his only start so far at Auteuil when he won a more valuable contest with ease, and with the runner-up winning since at Cork for Willie Mullins and as short as 16/1 for the Triumph Hurdle, and the third fifth and seventh also with wins in the bank, the form has an above average look about it. That victory does mean he has to give weight to any horse yet to win over hurdles, and the reality is I feel that will make his life that little bit tougher, but he looks a very useful recruit to the Sussex yard, and I expect him to keep his unbeaten record intact.
Wincanton 12.20pm
Two and three-quarter miles on soft ground could be a proper test for some of these novices, but with the majority trying this trip for the first time, we will have to take their stamina on trust. Eight runnings have seen winners priced at 2/1 or shorter on seven occasions, but I was unimpressed by Top Target despite a winning run at Wetherby, and at cramped odds, I am willing to look elsewhere. Pedley Wood was well-backed at Fontwell for his first start after winning his sole point-to-point at Sheriff Hutton but found the trip way too short for him when sixth of eight in mid-November, but will hopefully be far better suited by this test of stamina. The Tizzard yard were disappointed that day but longer trips may yet prove to be his forte with plenty of stamina in his pedigree, and although no good thing, an each way or place only bet could mean a profit.
Sandown 12.40pm
A Listed contest for mares, so black type for the winner and any future breeding career (tick), £14,000 plus to the winner (tick), and proper racing ground (tick), yet here I am at the early declaration stage staring at six entries, and wondering where we will be come race time. The answer is one has fallen by the wayside so we only have the five, a real pain in the butt for any each-way punters, and with little likelihood of much in the way of value. Harry Fry unsurprisingly thinks very highly of Love Envoi, and as she receives 1lb from likely rival Martello Sky, who is officially rated 4lb her inferior, I cannot realistically look elsewhere for the winner. She reappeared looking as if the race would do her some good after over seven-months off, she stayed n well to win here regardless, and if that blows the cobwebs away, she ought to follow up under Jonathan Burke.
Sandown 2.25pm
The Grade One Tolworth hurdle has always been a decent affair and as things stands, may well be the most informative race of the weekend. Eight of the 11 entered at the early stage were winners last time out which bodes well, but the latest (48 hour) declarations leave us with just the eight in a race won by the likes of L’Ami Serge, Finian’s Oscar, and even Constitution Hill in recent years. I would be surprised at first glance if anything here can get near to their standards, but the three that stand out to me are Gary Moore’s Authised Speed, fifth in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham and the winner of both starts over hurdles, maiden winner L’Astroboy who is totally unexposed, and Irish raider Arctic Bresil who will be my selection. His form doesn’t match Gary’s horse to be honest, but he jumped better in my opinion when winning at Cork and he may have a very bright future. A son of Blue Bresil (no shock there), I was taken with his cruising speed and lack of mistakes that day, and with Gary’s making errors when winning here last time out, that may yet be the decisive factor
Newcastle 2.33pm
With a 6/5 favourite winning last year and a 25/1 shot the year before, the market doesn’t seem a reliable source of useful information, and I would go so far to suggest we cannot ignore any of the runners here. With precious little confidence I will suggest a very small each way bet Flat maiden Neverwrongforlong with the proviso that we keep an eye on whether he drifts or contracts in the market on the day. Two runs on the Flat saw a much improved effort when he came home second at Catterick over a mile and a half, but thew fact that the ever-shrewd Michael and David Easterby team send him over hurdles so quickly intrigues me and I suspect we may see even further improvement here in a race than won’t take that much winning.
Newcastle 3.08pm
One more novice hurdle for today and a tricky one to try to solve, though with the Ben Pauling yard in such good form, Henry’s Friend is difficult to oppose, but priced accordingly. Second to Henri the second at Sandown last month in a far better race, nothing else here can boast that level of form, though there are plenty of lightly raced sorts who may have more to offer, and I won’t be having too much on if his price contracts any further.
Sandown 3.35pm
Time to delve into past stats to see which horses are pointed to, so here we go looking at the 13 runnings of this two-mile handicap hurdle that was won by Hydroplane at odds of 25/1 last year. 11 of those winners came home in the first five last time out, 12 were aged between five and eight, and 11 carried 11 stone 3 or less, and all the winners came from the first eight in the betting at the off (I can only work with early odds of course so we have to hope they are accurate). 11 winners had an official rating of 121 or above, 11 ran within the last 60 days, and 12 had already run this season, so if we work with that little group of statistics, we end up with a shortlist of Djelo, Hardy Du Seuil, and Dr T J Eckleburg. Of the three trainers concerned, Olly Murphy probably has his string in the best form and that leads me to an each way bet on Hardy Du Seuil, the biggest priced of the three at the time of writing, and therefore perhaps the best value.
Sunday
Naas 2.20pm
Trainer Willie Mullins had a long list of entries for this event but he has decided to rely on Champ Kiely and Grangeclare West, who is the choice of stable jockey Paul Townend. The winner of a point-to-point, a bumper at Punchestown and a maiden hurdle at Naas, he was visually impressive last time out and looks to have a very bright future. Already as short as 7/1 for the Ballymore at the Cheltenham Festival, he will need to win this and do so readily to keep that place in a competitive market, but with his trainer winning four of the last 10 runnings of this race, and mopping up most of the main events on recent weekends, the forecast odds-against looks a giveaway and he may well be the banker of the weekend.
Sean’s Suggestions
Win double - Bo Zenith 12.05pm Sandown Saturday and Grangeclare West 2.20pm Naas Sunday
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