ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
Did you fill your boots last Saturday – four selections, four winners, that may never happen again - but I hope you made the most of it?
I don’t know about you, but I was really looking forward to the ITV docuseries Champions: Full Gallop, and although I have only watched the one at the time of writing, I am hopeful it may (just may) attract a new generation to the sport we all love. As I spend pretty much every waking hour either working or reading about the sport (it’s part of the job), I can’t pretend I have learned anything new, but I do wonder if even I take the participants at all levels for granted after so many years? In conclusion, I was pleasantly surprised (eye-opening for any newcomers to the sport), and a reminder of just how many characters we have to thank for our hobby (what a character Paul Nicholls is, for starters), but a sad reminder of just how dangerous the sport is for the jockeys as well as the horses. Noi names obviously but whoever planned it clearly picked the right people to talk to (it is not a prerequisite to be a big personality to be good at training or riding horses), and I was most taken with all the colour and excitement that I now realise I take for granted – naughty me. What we don’t know is the audience figures and how many newbies it might or might not attract to the sport, but they can do no more than try and I am happy to acknowledge that I think they have made a fantastic job of things while (sensibly?) leaving odds and betting out of the conversation and reminding us all this is a sport first and foremost, albeit one we bet on. If I had one gripe it would be the focus on the one race (the King George), which may have tested some viewers patience to the limit (that and showing a tractor harrowing the all-weather track – why), but I look forward to part two with interest and in the hope it spreads its wings away from the premier meetings.
Meanwhile, racing sadly continues to ignore the power of social media with a post on the price of ice-creams at Chepstow getting a pile of hits. Six “Mr Whippy” cones for £30 (or £5 each) seems a rip-off to me when you can buy a Magnum (my ice-cream of choice) for 70p in Iceland, but just like most things racing, who is making the money? Naturally, the ice-cream seller gets all the stick (and perhaps rightly so), but how much did the racecourse charge him for the pitch? If we assume (and I am making this up) that he hopes to sell 500 products a day, IF he is being charged £500 for his pitch (again supposition), then he has to make a quid on everything just to break even and more than that to cover his and his staff costs. I know for a fact from chatting with various bar staff over the years they feel forced to charge ridiculous sums thanks to racecourse costs, but the tracks sit back quietly and allow the customer facing staff (probably on minimum wage or close to it) to take the abuse from the customers – the truth should be told. More importantly, the customer who forked out a week’s beer money for a few ice-creams probably won’t ever return (after feeling ripped off), will tell his friends all about it (putting them off), and has now told the World his story – not racings best look but not something they seem to give a toss about.
Sticking with Chepstow and the media rights war between bookmakers and racecourses continues and if anything, is building up a head of steam. This week the word is (not confirmed or fact checked) that they paid out a total of £43,000 in prize money for the entire card – and took in three times that amount in media rights. Add in sponsor and other contributions and it looks like the track make a pretty penny – no wonder the bookies have the hump! Flutter, owner of Paddy Power and SkyBet are only offering SP on meetings they pick on in an attempt to get the racecourses back to the table to renegotiate media rights, but the truth is it seems like the punters are the ones who suffer – though most of us have other accounts if we fancy taking early prices. Bottom line is I still don’t understand why if all is rosy in the racing garden, racecourses refuse to publicise their media rights income – they may claim it isn’t them taking lumps out of the sport but while they refuse to give out the necessary details, everyone will continue to think otherwise, rightly or wrongly.
Next up, has anyone else noticed the lack of Flat racing in a Sunday in recent weeks? Now I appreciate jockeys and stable staff need time off and I support that 100% - but surely a weekday makes more sense? I know I live in the dark ages and 9-5 Monday to Friday isn’t always the norm anymore, but the majority of people I know still have weekends off – and they have nowhere to go if they fancy a trip to the races on the sabbath (after church, obviously). I am not a fan of jump racing in the summer (too many injuries to the horses for my liking or the good of the sport) but last Sunday all we had on the Flat was Redcar, and this coming Sunday we have Pontefract. I have nothing against either track but as a soft southerner (you know, the most populated part of the United Kingdom), I and thousands of others have nowhere to realistically go with Uttoxeter the other fixture (143 miles or over three hours by car from London and over four hours from my house) – where is the sense in that?
Meanwhile, Swedish bookmakers ATG have taken the unprecedented move of refusing to bet on any National Hunt fixtures (so I am boycotting Ikea and refusing to listen to ABBA or drive a Volvo), and although it doesn’t’ affect me in the slightest, it may be the start of a slippery slope. In a World where the minority are listened to and the majority ignored it would appear they have been listening to various animal rights groups and I wonder who will follow suit in the years ahead? Personally, I hate to see any horse inured at any time, but I fail to understand how grouse shooting and fishing can continue untouched while racing takes the brunt of the recent attacks - publicity is the only answer and someone somewhere needs to stand up and tell them when cruelty elsewhere (which is sadly in abundance, ask the RSPCA) is done away with, then and only then should racing be considered for a ban.
Lastly (I tried to find some positive news but failed dismally) it was interesting to see Regent’s Stroll change hands for £660,000 at the sales, meaning he needs to win two Gold Cups to break even! I have no issue with how others spend their money (if I had won the lottery I might have had a bid myself),but it does make it pretty tricky to argue the case that racing is in dire financial trouble when money of that magnitude is changing hands, and I doubt it will have gone unnoticed when the BHA take the begging bowl back to government for both Levy reform and the risk to racings income from affordability checks.
Prefer to listen than read – head to the podcast here for my views and those of Ron Robinson of Post Racing fame… https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2024/07/26/30-for-six-99s-whats-going-on-with-sundays-then/
Saturday Racing
1.50pm Ascot
With five winning favourites in the last 10 years, it may pay to side with the head of the market here and that points directly to Ollie Sangster’s Simmering with the booking of Ryan Moore to ride an eye-catching one. Although still a maiden after her two starts, she started with a third to Arabie at York which was far from a disgrace with the winner taking both races since with a Group Three followed by a Group Two at Chantilly to boost the form, while her only other race came so close to glory. Sent off a 9/1 chance for the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot under Jamie Spencer, she looked all set to pounce and get past leader Heavens Gate only for Ryan Moore to pounce late on with the flying filly Fairy Godmother. Bought by Al Shaqab after that run, she will be desperately unlucky if she runs into one as good as her conqueror today, but make no mistake, she has some decent rivals and will need to be at her peak to come home in front.
2.25pm Ascot
Devoted Queen has five pounds to find here with both Soprano and Sirona, but Charlie Appleby’s unbeaten filly hasn’t really been tested yet and may have that much improvement to come or hopefully more. I will confess I haven’t really got the Charlie Appleby horses right so far this season, lumping on ones that get well-beaten and then ignoring those who stroll home – the bane of every punter. A daughter of Kingman out of a Shamardal mare, she only had the one start at two when winning a Newmarket maiden easily enough, before reappearing this season with a neck success at Kempton in a Conditions Stakes. One more start in May saw a two-length success in Listed class at York in a first-time hood, and the truth is, we just don’t know how good she is just yet. She retains the headgear here to keep her on the straight and narrow and as she arrives unbeaten, she is difficult to oppose.
3.00pm Ascot
I thought we would have a look at perhaps the most competitive handicap of the day if only to see if we can find one to hit the places using past performances to see if we can find one in with a chance. Using the last 15 years (14 runnings) of facts, I noted that: 13 winners were priced at 33/1 or shorter, none have come from stalls 1, 3, 5,6,7, 8, 9, or 10 (who knows why?), 12 finished in the first nine last time out, 13 were aged four to six, which gives us a decent starting point. 13 were officially rated 103 or less, and all 14 were rated 89 or higher. Add all those together, and we end up with a shortlist of just five in Metal Merchant, Billyjoh, Dancing Magic, Aalto and New Image so where next? Of the trainers represent none have won this before so nothing to learn there, but I do note seven winners in the last 15 years were last seen running in the Bunbury Cup here at Ascot. Aalto not only ran in that contest, but he won it by a couple of lengths under Rossa Ryan, and although he switches to Billyjoh here (which is interesting), Luke Morris isn’t a bad “substitute” and at 8/1 carrying a 3lb penalty for that success, he goes up another 4lb for future contests and looks the each way value.
3.15pm York
With over £76,000 to the winner and Group Two status the whole of the racing World has to be disappointed with a miserly turnout of just five horses for the York Stakes over a mile and a quarter plus. Passenger didn’t really live up to expectations as a three-year-old with a bitterly disappointing twelfth to Auguste Rodin in the Derby at Epsom, though he did hold on to take the Group Three Winter Hill Stakes at Windsor on his final start. Returning at Chester in the Group Two Huxley Stakes, he was slowly away and then short of room but still pounced to win by a length and a half over this trip. In my opinion he was bred to be better the older he gets and that will hopefully prove to be the case with another victory here, though Owen Burrows won this last season with Alflaila, and I am wary that he has been set up for his attempt at doubling up this afternoon a year later.
3.40pm Ascot
The big race of the day is the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes though to be fair, it has lost a bit of its lustre in recent years, ever since the word “Diamond” was taken out of the race title after the sponsorship of De Beers came to an end. With no offence to the current crop, the glory days of Nijinsky, Mill Reef, The Minstrel, Troy, Shergar, Time Charter, Dancing Brave, Mtoto, Nashwan, Montjeu and Galileo seem like a distant memory, and I would take offence to anyone suggesting we have anything of their calibre in action this afternoon. On official ratings, 12/1 shot Sunway comes out best at these weights thanks to his three-year-old allowance, but his second to Los Angeles was his best run yet, and Aidan O’Brien who trained the winner that day should know where he stands with his team. Rebel’s Romance has won his last four races for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin, at Kempton, Doha, Meydan, and Sha Tin, and he seems to be getting better with every start, but if Auguste Rodin is at his best, then he is the likeliest winner. He can blow a bit hot and cold, with wins in the Derby and the Irish Derby last year as well as the Breeders’ Cup Turf, but he also came home last in this race and last in the Sheema Classic in Dubai this March (won by Rebels Romance), so which horse will we see this afternoon? Word from Ballydoyle has it that he is back to his very best (but they would say that), and if that is the case, he can cement his place as one of the best in recent years with a seventh Group One success as he looks to add to the £4,733,223 he has already earned, which will pale into insignificance in comparison to his future earnings at stud.
Sean’s Suggestion:
Seagolazo 2.10pm Chester Saturday
Not much of a price if the forecast turns out to be accurate, but for me Seagolazo is the likeliest winner of the weekend. Hugo Palmer’s son of Havana Grey showed plenty of promise on his Lingfield debut but took a huge step forward on his only other start when third at Haydock, beaten a length and a half at the line. Badly hampered by a loose horse which cost him lengths midway through the race before hanging badly, he did remarkably well to get as near as he did at the line, and a clear run here ought to see him getting off the mark.
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