Hi racing fans, a bit of a mixed bag last week but the stats worked out nicely for the one handicap covered as we had the winner the third and the fourth from the three left in, with my outright selection storming home – better than nothing but we are in a strange period at present with more shock results than I can shake a stick at. Never one to sit on my laurels, I have been busy putting together my Cheltenham Statistics book (on sale with Amazon in the next few weeks), where I noticed something quite shocking. We all talk about the retiring Flat jockeys, Frankie in particular, but where have all the top jump jockeys gone? Let me clarify the question before I get lynched, I am not questioning the ability of any of the current crop, but going back through all the big races at Cheltenham and then Aintree looking for patterns and multiple winners, and the same names kept cropping up (remembering I try to over 25 years of stats). A P McCoy, Barry Geraghty, Ruby Walsh, Richard Johnston and so on, but very few of the current crop. I grant you they haven’t had the long careers just yet, but I had to at least mention it as I do feel they are almost forgotten already, and that seems a real shame for such titans of our sport.
Next up, being British I feel morally obliged to talk about the weather, after all, that’s what the rest of the World seem to think we do all the time! The rains just keep on falling to the extent that we are seeing abandonments on a daily basis in the last week, but is that really something they cannot prepare for – I’m pretty confident it rains at this time of year on a regular basis. My point is, and deliberately picking on the two meetings that have recently fallen, Leicester first raced at their current location in 1883, and Bangor in 1859 - anyone else think they could have sorted out the drainage issues by now? Now I do appreciate the wheels turn very slowly in our industry, an expecting something to be done overnight would be naïve of me in the extreme – but over 100 years is a bit strung out even for them, and you have to wonder why they still have the same issues over a century later.
One last thing for this week, and who can tell me why owners continue to cough up huge sums for horses to send over the jumps when ninety-nine times out of a hundred they will not recoup anywhere near to their costs? I noted a horse running this week by the name of Feel Good Inc, who fell on his only start in a point-to-point – but still went through the sales ring for £110,000 in March last year. He reappeared at Doncaster on Tuesday and duly won the grand sum of £4,901.40 (before deductions) at Doncaster (I tipped him in my Daily Sport article, by the way), and all he has to do is win another 21 races of similar value and he has paid his way – but that seems an unlikely scenario, and doesn’t even take into account training fees etc. In case anyone thought that was a one-off, the same trainer doubled up with Willmount who won £2,534.88 in the bumper – and he cost £340,000 in February after winning his point-to-point – but he needs to win 134 similar races – has the world gone mad? My overall point is that it is difficult for owners to continually bitch about low prize money when they continue to cough-up astronomical sums for horses who can never repay their confidence – perhaps they should just accept it is a rich man’s hobby and get on with it – or at least band together and stop paying over the odds.
Bored of reading (don’t blame you) – listen to my views and those of Ron Robinson on the podcast here instead https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2023/01/13/why-do-they-pay-that-money-for-a-jumper-and-im-not-talking-about-a-polo-neck/
On to the racing:
Saturday
Wetherby 12.47pm
On paper this looks like a two-horse race between Dan Skelton’s Hitching Jacking and Mark Walford’s Choosethenews, both winners last time out, and both scoring by six lengths. Jockey Tristan Durrell claims 5lb off the Skelton horse which may see him head the betting at the off but having looked at the respective times of this victories, I think otherwise. Add in the fact that my selection likes to front run and stays further than this (so he won’t be stopping on the run-in) and I am hoping he can get the jolly out of his comfort zone nice and early here, and that can lead to mistakes – and if that is the case, he may not be able to close in late on, which appears to be the way he likes to be ridden.
Lingfield 1.10pm
Well, the concept was that we would have plenty of form to work with for this novice event but that is not the case, with Richard Hannon’s Vasilissa is one of only two with any placed form after coming home a length second here when staying on late over the six furlongs. Upped to a mile here, she can go well, and at the forecast prices I do like her each-way chances. Charlie Appleby’s Star Guest is the probable favourite after her second to Twirling at Kempton but I am not 100% certain she is even the stable first-string with Cieren Fallon no board newcomer Spring Promise, a daughter of Lope De Vega who looks the part on paper, and as I cannot split those two, my each way bet may yet prove the sensible option.
Warwick 1.50pm
Another poor field on a Saturday afternoon with just the four runners declared for this novice chase – but what looks a closely matched contest nonetheless. Galia Des Liteaux would be interesting on her Bangor success, but she was pulled up last time out after ”losing confidence” after a bad mistake, and there is no guarantee that won’t have left some mental scars, though the drop in grade can only help. Complete Unknown kept on well to win over shorter in his fencing debut at Ffos Las and with the Nicholls string in fine form he cannot be ignored, but preference is narrowly for The Goffer. He travels over from Ireland looking to land the spoils for Gordon Elliott after running in to Ha D’Or at Fairyhouse last month, and with the Irish form looking stronger than ours yet again, a repeat of that may well be more than enough.
Kempton 2.05pm
Pic D’Orhy is by far the likeliest winner here after scoring on both starts this season at Newton Abbott and Huntingdon. He never really impresses, scoring by a couple of lengths each time, but he is in form and may prove hard to beat. He could score easily but his price is plenty short enough, and I will take a risk on the long-absent Angels Breath instead. The winner of both starts over fences, both at Ascot, he hasn’t been seen since December 2019, but is reported to be in rude health and ready for a run by new trainer Sam Thomas. Although his fitness has to be taken on trust, and he could just as easily blow up as not, he arrives unbeaten over the larger obstacles, and he beat First Flow by an easy eight lengths on his chasing bow, and as he is now rated 158, that suggests that nominal progress could well see hm have some say – and reward his patient connections who have waited a long time to see him back on the track.
Warwick 2.25pm
We may only have the seven runners for this novice event, but every one of them won last time out, with three of them unbeaten this season. Givega is a horse I like a lot and he has rewarded those thoughts with wins at Lingfield and Fontwell, but this looks a step up in class and he needs to prove he is up to it. Knowsley Roadheads the market at 3/1 as I write, and correctly so after the Nicholls six-year-old scored at Chepstow in both November and December, the latest when making all for a five-length success. He needs to improve again to take this, but with the yard in great form he does look the most sensible option.
Kempton 2.40pm (handicap)
Well, we did a statistical analysis on a handicap last week and came up with the winner, the third and the fourth from just the three left on the shortlist, and the winner clearly identified, but can we do the same here. The Lanzarote Hurdle is our race of choice this weekend, though all prices are a possibility after 66/1 chance Boreham Bill won for Emma Lavelle in 2021. Using 25 years of stats I note that we haven’t had a winner carrying more than 11 stone seven (four horses gone), 22 of the 25 have been aged seven or younger (two more cast aside), 23 of the 25 last raced within 60 days (four more), and we are now down to 10 from an original field of 20. Next up I note that 22 of the 25 were in the first nine in the betting at the off (using early prices we lose three more), and finally for this week, 22 had raced four times or less this season (which gets rid of the early favourite)! That leaves me with Cobblers Dream, Harbour Lake, West Balboa, Dubrovnik Harry, and Scarface as the likeliest to go well – based on history repeating itself, of course. With no other breakdown available I will do what I did last week – go for an each way bet on the biggest priced, and that means Joe Tizzard’s Scarface. Still a novice, he has won both starts this season, showing battling qualities when needed, and at 14/1 or thereabouts, there are worse bets to be had today.
Fairyhouse 3.22pm
Must Be Obeyed stayed on again to get back up over a furlong short of three miles at Punchestown last time out, but whether the drop back in trip will play to his strengths is debatable, and he may have to settle for a place this afternoon. Innovated, on the other hand, cruised throughout before winning a shade cosily here over a furlong shorter on his only start over the larger obstacles, despite making far too many errors at his fences. Rachel Blackmore takes over from conditional jockey Conor Brassil this afternoon, and if the eight-year-old has learned from that experience, he may well be the one they all have to beat.
Sunday (only if the decs are out in time)
Punchestown 12.10pm
A Grade Two novice hurdle over two miles starts off our Sunday action, in a race won six times in the last ten years by Willie Mullins – and twice by Gordon Elliott. Once again the two old rivals line up in opposition this year with possibly the top two horses in the field, in the shape of in the unbeaten Impaire Et Passe, (a Nancy bumper and a Naas maiden hurdle) and Shecouldbeanything (Loughanmore point-to-point, Limerick bumper, and a maiden hurdle at the same track). I am tempted to think that the Mullins gelding may have the edge over this trip having won over a mile and a half in France whereas stamina could be the Elilott mare’s forte, and if that assumption is correct then we should be on the winner.
Punchestown 2.10pm
Envoi Allen win this in 2021 and Bob Olinger last season, so this looks a race worth watching for future reference, with seven and eight-year-olds winning all of the five runnings. Although the entries here need to step up on what we have seen to match the exploits of past winners, there is every chance that Ha D’or can do just that after the six-year-old strolled home at Fairyhouse on his one and only start over fences where he made all the running despite idling a little and wandering around late on. He has the physique of a chaser and word coming out of the Mullins yard is that he is expected to go to the top of the novice chasing tree, and this represents a decent test to see just how good he really is.
Sean’s Suggestions
Blood Destiny 12.27pm Fairyhouse Saturday (I’m on this one for the Triumph Hurdle at 20/1 if anyone is interested).
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