1.30pm
The Gallagher Novices Hurdle aka the Baring Bingham is all about the odds-on Ballyburn and as hard as I have tried, I cannot see any good reason to oppose him despite the silly price. The one blot on his form was a second at Fairyhouse on his hurdling debut but he has made up for any losses that day with easy and impressive successes at Leopardstown in December and February. He would have gone off equally short had he been sent over the two miles of the Supreme on day one but in my view Willie Mullins has made the sensible decision sending him here where he ought to win with ease. I have to add that Mullins having five of the eight runners is laughable as a punter, though anyone looking for a bigger price could do worse than Handstands who arrives unbeaten, and may have more to offer.
2.10pm
Two winning favourites in the last three years and five in the last 10 will encourage punters this afternoon, and if Fact To File is as good as they think he is, then this will be a stroll in the park. Word is they think he will be a very serious Gold Cup contender this time next year for the Mullins team, and if he is at that level, this is his for the taking. Paul Nicholls has told anyone who will listen that he thinks Stay Away Fay is one of his best chances of the meeting but he still has a few pounds to find with the selection in my book, though he could still be the one for any forecast backers out there with an each way play not worth the effort in a bitterly disappointing six horse race.
2.50pm
The Coral Cup is as open a handicap as you will find this week, on paper at least, and once again common sense suggests we look at past statistics to at least cut down those in contention. Once again I will settle for 15 years of data, and note that 14 winners were aged eight or younger, 14 rated 138 or higher, and all bar one had raced in the last 90 days. Applying those “rules” leaves us with a ridiculous “shortlist” of 12 which is something, and of those Frist Street has to be considered on his first start after a wind-operation, having won off a mark 3lb higher in November 2022. He could surprise a few, but once again tis may fall to the Irish with some pretty dark horses lurking in the field. Jigoro is lightly raced and may come out top of the Gordon Elliott quartet and at 14/1 he looks a spot of each way value, as does the hat-trick seeking Built by Ballymore, but Willie Mullins could have a field day today if Sa Majeste (each way) is as good as hoped. A winner at Auteuil for his previous trainer, he disappointed on his Irish debut at Punchestown when something appeared to be amiss, but he made up for that by defeating Noble Yeats by over four lengths at Limerick and there is every chance that a mark of 140 seriously underestimates his true abilities.
3.30pm
Yet another odds-on shot here as El Fabiolo is seen as another Willie Mullins banker, and with a record of six wins from six starts over fences including the Arkle Trophy last season, you can easily see why he heads the market. I was asked to find a jolly to oppose on a podcast earlier in the week and at the current odds I am happy to weigh in with Jonbon as an alternative – again, if we can find a bookie offering a quarter of the odds then we will get most of our money back even if he places on an each-way bet. There is a school of thought that the favourite could be a far better jumper as he is inclined to clout a fence now and then, and with Edwardstone quite likely to set off and play catch me if you can, his opponents may, just may, draw out some added errors. With a record of seven wins and two seconds from nine starts he is clearly no back number, and if there is a surprise this week, he may be the one to provide it.
4.10pm
The Cross Country Chase is the marmite of the entire week, a love it or hate it contest that purists are inclined to shun, but others see as a welcome addition and something a little bit different to savour, myself included. With the exception of French raider Easyland in 2020 this has fallen to the Irish for the last nine years and there is very little reason to expect that to change in 2024. Once again their horses dominate the early betting with Minella Indo at the top of the tree, but for me this seems more likely to fall to one of the Gordon Elliott runners. Jacke Kennedy seems to have chosen the hat-trick seeking Delta Work after the now 11-year-old took this in 2021 and 2022, but I narrowly prefer the chances of the younger Coko Beach. In good form with a third, a second, and two wins since pulling up in last year’s Grand National, he scored by six lengths last time out over the Cross-Country course at Punchestown and may do the same this afternoon.
4.50pm
Next up we have a two mile handicap chase and a race won by some huge priced winners in recent years with a 28/1 shot last season, and others at odds up to 66/1 – so punters beware! Sadly the statistics don’t tell us very much on this occasion, and the truth of the matter is I do not have a strong opinion here, but Cheltenham is Cheltenham and I have to come up with something! At 10/1 or thereabouts we could see a big run from Path D’oroux (each way) who represents Gavin Cromwell, a trainer I have a lot of time for, and if the first-time cheekpieces help him to give his all, he might be in the firing line where it matters.
5.30pm
The bumper is one of those races you can love and hate at the same time, though with eight arriving here with unbeaten records, something has to give, and this may well come down to who has the most improvement to come – which could be seen as a guess I suppose. The Irish have won the last six runnings with four of those going the way of that man Willie Mullins, and his NINE runners obviously warrant plenty of attention, with Jasmin De Vaux the shortest in the market as I write. then Nicholls pair of Teeshan and Quebecois are also worth noting with the last named already carrying some of my each way cash, but word in Ireland has it that Romeo Coolio (each way) may be their best chance. Currently 8/1 (more each way material), he won his point-to-point at Belclare in March last year and his only bumper by an easy length and a quarter at Fairyhouse this January, and as I am hearing some close to the yard have already snapped up fancy prices for Cheltenham NEXT YEAR, he is clearly held in very high regard.
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