1.30pm
Once again horses declared for numerous races have meant I had to wait for the final running list to draw any conclusions, and as the “home” team have won two of the last three, you can be pretty certain the Irish will be out to make amends if they can. On paper this is one of the most closely matched contests of the entire week with the first three in the betting priced at 5/2, 11/4, and 3/1 as I write, with Ginny’s Destiny strongly fancied by the Paul Nicholls yard. He could make fools of us all and make the running to come home alone, but I haven’t given up on Facile Vega just yet. That man Willie Mullins is responsible for the seven-year-old who won the bumper here in 2022 and was a good second to the sadly missing Marine Nationale in the Supreme Hurdle last year. Three starts over fences have seen a win at Navan followed by a fourth and then a third at Leopardstown, but he has always looked as if a step up in trip would be far more suitable. He gets that here which many feel will see him in a much better light, but I would be a liar if I told you I felt the 11/4 currently on offer was good value – because it isn’t.
2.10pm
The Pertemps Final over three miles has always been a tough one to solve with just the one winning jolly in the last nine runnings, and winners at odds up to 25/1 (Third Wind in 2022). Interestingly, we haven’t seen a winner rated lower than 133 in the last 15 years (my data set of choice) and with only one rated higher than 148 that leaves us with a pretty compact group of closely weighted rivals. Add in the fact that every winner in that time had raced in the last 90 days, and all were aged 10 or younger, and we are down to 15 runners to work with. Of those it is noted that Gordon Elliott has won this three times in the last 15 years with another five placed which points toward an each way bet on Cleatus Poolaw (each way), though there is a chance the handicapper has the measure of the consistent six-year-old, who has hit a top two start on all seven starts, from a point-to-point at Turtulla in November 2022 to a second at Naas last month when staying on strongly over two and three-quarter miles. Lightly raced, I am I hoping there is improvement to come with a fast run race over this trip bringing his stamina into play, and at 7/1 he is each way value – though do look for a bookmakers paying out the first five or six home if you get the chance.
2.50pm
The Ryanair Chase over two and a half miles gives a chance of big time success for chasers without the speed for the minimum trip or the stamina for three miles or more, and has been won by the Irish (surprise surprise) for the last four years, three of those by Willie Mullins, and last year by Envoi Allen for Henry De Bromhead. Ahoy Senor is a personal favourite of mine but he will have to grind it out from the front to win over this trip which in my view counts against him, and I prefer the chances of Stage Star for Paul Nicholls who has had this as his target for some time. He was certainly not at his best when pulled up last time out here at Cheltenham when the heavy ground was all against him, but if he gets better going this afternoon he has a solid chance. Stable companion Hitman seems to have been forgotten in the betting and is another who could get involved at a much bigger price, while Envoi Allen is reportedly spot on for this by his trainer, and has a good chance of doubling up if he can put in a clear round, which has been an issue in the past.
3.30pm
I have always loved the Stayers Hurdle ,whether or not I have backed the winner, and this season it looks one of the better races of the entire week. The list of possibilities is endless with 2019 winner Paisley Park back for more at the age of 12, Flooring Porter aiming for a third win after victories in 2021 and 2022, and last year’s winner Sire Du Berlais also due to line up. Add in a Gordon Elliott trained favourite in Teahupoo and we have some contest to look forward to – and a race to savour! I had hoped to be suggesting Monkfish but he has not been declared meaning I have to look elsewhere, and I am happy enough to take the chance on Flooring Porter (each way) who we know for a fact handles trip and track better than most. He hasn’t really been at his best this season over fences with a third at Leopardstown last time out, but he returns to hurdles this afternoon and on his best form, would be extremely hard to beat.
4.10pm
Another tough handicap to work on next with the Plate over two and a half miles plus, and won by a 22/1 chance in 2022, and a 20/1 shot last season – ouch. I have run through the stats once more and am delighted to see that Crebilly fits them all as he has been my fancy for this for some time. Jonjo O’Neill’s seven-year-old arrives at the top of his game after winning at Exeter last time out, but it’s his earlier form that makes him a potential stand-out. His jumping let him down badly when fourth to Ginny’s Destiny here in December, and he fell when looking to give a pound and a beating to the same rival here in November, but as the Nicholls horse is now rated 155 that is no disgrace. He cannot afford to make those mistakes again today, but he looked to have ironed out the errors last time out on only his third start over fences (famous last words), making him potentially very well handicap here off a mark of 140. Those looking for an outsider should at least consider David Pipe’s Fighter Allen for a stable who have won this three times and placed on four other occasions in the last 15 years, suggesting they know exactly the sort needed to get involved where it matters, and at 33/1 for his first start after wind-surgery, I cannot pretend he isn’t a little tempting to minimum stakes.
4.50pm
This will be just the ninth running of the Mares’ Novice Hurdle but amusingly (and it makes no sense), four of the eight winners began with the letter “L’ – Limini. Let’s Dance, Laurina, and Love Envoi. Rank outsider Little Miss Dante is the only one to fit the bill this season, but common sense prevails and my pick will be elsewhere, and having spent an enjoyable morning at Fergal O’Brien’s stable, I know he fancies the chances of Dysart Enos, though sadly I suspect she may have to settle for a place. She won’t go under without a fight after winning all six starts under rules, but the Irish could hardly be any sweeter on the chances of Brighterdaysahead, also unbeaten and the 12-length winner of a Listed race at Navan last month when she was never out of second gear. She will need to find more to beat these with Jade De Grugy (Willie Mullins) and 33/1 shot Majestic Force also defending perfect records, but if she is as good as they think she is, a win is the likeliest outcome.
5.30pm
Amateur riders over fences and facing three and a quarter miles next means I haven’t even bothered looking at the runners until I saw exactly who was jocked up by each trainer, with the top riders having the potential to make all the difference. Seven to nine year olds dominate here historically, while the current favourite (Inothewayurthinkin) would buck the trends with no other horse winning off a mark higher than 143 in the last 25 years! I can oppose him for that reason alone, and I just about prefer the each way chances of Rapper (each way). One of only two course and distance winners in the field (last year’s winner Angels Dawn is the other), he scored here in January 2023 off just 1lb lower in the handicap, he stayed on well to come home a length second over three miles at Ascot last month which will put him spot-on for this. Cool Survivor was another who made the shortlist and he looks to have been laid out for this by Gordon Elliott, but at 6/1 I am hoping my selection is the better value, and can at least hit the first four home.
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