Last Saturday saw a full card of so-called Cheltenham trials ahead of the Festival in March, but what exactly did we learn, and will any of the winners that day go on to score where it really matters in less than six weeks time? We need to start by ignoring all the handicaps as marks will change between now and March (up or down), which cuts us down to an easier to talk about five races, starting with the Novice hurdle won by Pied Piper for Gordon Elliott, leading them home by a comfortable nine lengths. An Irish win does not bode well come Festival time as the four-year-old is not currently considered their best option for the Triumph Hurdle, though there was a big market reaction, and he currently trades as the 5/2 ante-post favourite. He did the job well enough and the time was pretty decent (in comparison to the other races on the card), and although I won’t be backing him just yet, he may well be the likeliest on this list to come home in front in a big one.
Chantry House was our next winner, but if this was a Gold Cup trial then the rest can’t be all that. I am not a vet nor a trainer, but I suspect there is something wrong physically, because t
he astute and enthusiastic novice chaser that won the Marsh at Cheltenham and the Mildmay at Aintree was conspicuous by his absence. He looked out of love with the game and frankly uninterested throughout despite jockey urgings, and cannot win a Gold Cup if that is as good as he now is. If I am correct (first time for everything), he has a minor injury, and if they can correct that in the next few weeks, he may return to his better form.
The Cleeve hurdle was expected to be little more than an exercise canter for Champ, but those who saw the race witnessed a contest that brought tears to the eyes – financially or otherwise. Paisley Park has looked a shadow of his former self recently, and rightly so at the age of 10, and he originally decided he didn’t want to take part, whipping round at the start and giving a dozen lengths or so away to all his rivals. Patiently ridden by Aidan Coleman, he must have traded at some silly prices (reports vary for 43.0 to 999.0 depending on who you listen to), but thanks in part to a slowly run race and patience from his rider, he made up the lost ground early enough to sit at the rear of the field. No-one, whatever they tell you, thought he could win after that debacle, but the horse didn’t know, and ran on strongly to catch the odds-on favourite up the run in and win going away by close to four lengths. You would now have to think Champ isn’t good enough for the Stayers, Paisley Park is but can’t be trusted, and that leads me to suggest Lisnagar Oscar, third here, may be the one to at least consider each way for March – with the more rain the better for his chances of regaining the crown he won back in 2020.
The bumper rounds off our races of note from last weekend, and although Mullenbeg won it with ease, I would fall over if the Irish don’t have half a dozen better than her come the big day. The fact that you can still get 25/1 about her tells its own story, as does a time over 13 seconds slow
er than standard, and she is another winner from the day that won’t be carrying my money, I am sorry to say.
Moving on slightly, and I was interested to read that Gold Cup day is a sell out this year in January – the earliest ever. At first glance that has to be seen as great news for racing, a barometer of its continuing popularity, but look a little deeper, and maybe not. Being the pinnacle of National Hunt racing is no bad thing I agree, but is it becoming a showpiece, a social event that non racing fans love to attend with an “I’ve been there” attitude, at the expense of the majority of the rest of the season? If these are “proper” racegoers, where are they for the rest of the season? For me, I would like to see a little more effort from Cheltenham to use their flagship event to encourage once a year punters to head off to their local tracks, perhaps a free bet or a money off coupon? More racegoers equals more income for racing which can only help to balance out the expected financial drop from affordability checks (don’t get me started), yet racing continues to hide behind the cushion and hope these problems will simply go away.
On to the racing….and if you want to see my racing suggestions on a daily basis, you can here, each and every day https://dailysport.co.uk/category/sport/
Racing
Friday
1.00pm Catterick
Not the best of days for a Friday for us racing fans but the 1.00pm at Catterick looks as if it may prove informative for the weeks and months ahead, with some well-regarded sorts in opposition. French import Icone D’Aubrelle won his only start at Bordeaux Le Bouscat in determined more than electric fashion and is worth a market watch ahead of his UK debut, while better things are expected of Piecederesistance who was well backed on his debut over hurdles before a bad mistake pretty much ended his chances at Sedgefield, and he can do better once he sorts out his jumping. He may yet be the biggest danger to the dropped in class Collingham, who looks the one to be on. A winner at Musselburgh, he has hit the top three in each race since with a head second in a Class Two at Huntingdon last month, and if he remains in the same sort of form, he ought to find this far easier pickings.
1.20pm Chepstow
No reason not to get both our bets out the way bright and early this afternoon as we head to the 1.20pm at Chepstow next where I am really hoping that the David Pipe trained Kingofthewest helps us get a better price for our selection. A winner over further on his first start for the yard after a second in a Tipperary point-to-point, he led close home that day, and I cannot be the only one wondering why connections now drop him back in trip three furlongs. Super Six is preferred this afternoon for the in-form Nigel Twiston-Davies yard, and I can tell you as fact that Nigel has always thought a lot of the son of Montmartre who won his first two bumpers at Hereford and here at Chepstow before a respectable fifth in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham and an over the top effort at Aintree. Sent over hurdles this season, he forced a dead-heat at Perth in September before a below par effort when weakening rapidly in to fifth at Ascot. He has had a wind operation since then which suggests he may have struggled for oxygen that day as I look for excuses, and if he is back to his best, he really ought to prove far too good for these rivals.
1.50pm Chepstow
A poor turnout for this three mile novice hurdle with just the five declared, but all of them are pretty decent and it is still a race that will take plenty of winning. Grange `road seems likely to be popular here for the Paul Nicholls team but for me, his horses don’t seem to be running to form lately, and as he fell when very tired over this trip last time out, I am willing to look elsewhere for the winner. Kyntara looks the likeliest to me having run on over shorter last time out at Warwick to be beaten less than a length despite a bad mistake at the last, and in receipt of 7lb from the two previous winners in this field, this could be his best chance yet to get off the mark.
Saturday
1.50pm Sandown
Not a race I will be betting in but one worth talking over if nothing else. On official figures this is a battle between Song Of Sixpence and Goshen, and I am unsure whether or not to go back over the cliff for Gary Moore’s gelding who is yet to recapture his best form when unseating Jamie Moore at the last with the race won in the 2020 Triumph Hurdle. He has raced nine times since winning once at Wincanton, but was last of three at Lingfield last month. No doubt he will win more races, but when something hurts you really should stop doing it (rule number two of life – number one is don’t eat yellow snow), though I may be tempted to have a couple of quid just in case Gary can get him back to his very best.
2.20pm Sandown
Another contest that looks between two horses naively assuming everyone runs to form, with Pic D’Orhy and L’Homme Presse the athletes concerned. Paul Nicholls trains the first named who won last time out at Ascot and who may have had an unbeaten record over fences if he hadn’t fallen at Newbury in November. The good ground predicted may suit him more than his market rival whose better form over fences is on going with more cut in it, though he has won in it over hurdles and once again it looks likely to be a close run thing between the two of them.
2.30pm Wetherby
If Ahoy Senor is as good as they think he is then this is all over bar the shouting. A winner at Newbury in November, he followed that with a second to Bravemansgame at Kempton, and although that was a little disappointing, time may prove that form to be the most solid in this field. Connections are still mulling over a tilt at the Gold Cup, he is held in that much regard at home, but although that may be a bridge too far, he ought to win this with a clear round albeit at prohibitive odds.
1.35pm Leopardstown
Welcome to part one of what could be the Willie Mullins show this afternoon, and with four runners entered here it must be odds-on he wins the race. Any of them could prove good enough and I certainly advise a market watch for signs of who is the stable number one, but at this early stage I will be backing Vauban. Sent off at 4/9 on his debut at Punchestown he ran in to the ex-Gosden Pied Piper who saw him off by half a length after a proper battle (some felt the order should have been reversed because of interference), and connections will be looking for recompense here. The winner bolted up at Cheltenham last weekend to frank the form and with a tongue-tie added to help his breathing, he looks the likeliest winner to me.
2.10pm Leopardstown
Have I mentioned Willie Mullins? Blue Lord is as short as 11/4 for the Arkle at Cheltenham in March based on flawless displays over fences at Fairyhouse and Naas and there will be some very upset ante-post punters if he fails to land the hat-trick here. The concept of defeat seems pretty unlikely on what we have seen so far, but if you want to bet odds-on in a novice chase you are a braver man (or woman) than me, and I will sit back and watch what I expect to be poetry in motion over fences from the son of Blue Bresil who may go all the way to the very top.
3.15pm Leopardstown
Much as we all know the Irish raiders will leave us with a bloody nose at Cheltenham in March, there is a good chance we can take some small revenge in advance here if Frodon gets the run of the race and handles the track as hoped. He looked as good as every when winning at Down Royal on his return in October and although not at his best when fourth in the King George on Boxing Day, he has been given plenty of time to bounce back before his next assignment. Not entered in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, this looks to be his big target for the season, and although I would be happier if the Nicholls horses were in better form lately, he may be able to get the better of Minella Indo who has a little top prove after pulling up last time out.
4.25pm Leopardstown
This race was not on my original list but having backed Facile Vega for the bumper before his debut, I am obviously hoping for another winning run here. Trained by (you guessed it) Willie Mullins, the son of Walk In The Park out of wondermare Quevega came here for his debut in December when he won by an easy six lengths despite looking as green as grass. He looked an absolute beast that day and I can’t wait to see him over hurdles or even fences over the years ahead, but or now I am hoping he follows up that success this afternoon and I can lay off my bet for a tasty profit.
3.25pm Lingfield
On to the all-weather next when I am keen enough on the chances of Fancy Man for Richard Hannon. A change of tactics over a mile and a half last time out saw him make all to hang on for a half-length success here last time out in September, and if the same tactics are tried over this two furlongs shorter, he could prove hard to catch. His stable are in great form with a 44% strike rate in the last fortnight, and although his fitness has to be taken on trust, he looks the most likely winner here in my eyes.
4.00pm Lingfield
Trainer Karl Burke seems pretty keen to win this with three entries all set to go to post, including Exalted Angel who won this last season at odds of 20/1, though I doubt we will see that sort of price in 2022 and he is entitled to get in to the mix once again. The one I prefer , albeit only narrowly, is Good Effort, even though he has to give weight away all round thanks to a Listed win here last November. Trained in Newmarket by Ismail Mohammed, and the mount of Jim Crowley, he was last seen coming home third over a furlong shorter at Newcastle in January, when seemingly tapped for toe close home. Upped a furlong today he has raced four times here in Surrey, winning all of them, with three over this course and distance in Listed class. In a nutshell, he isn’t being asked to do any more today than he has accomplished numerous times in the past, is tactically adaptable and can make the running or sit off the pace to challenge, and ticks far too many boxes for me to ignore.
Sean's Suggestions:
Good Effort 4.00pm Lingfield
Blue Lord 2.10pm Leopardstown
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