Having tipped a 40/1 winner in my last article (among others, though that was, unsurprisingly, the stand out suggestion), common sense suggested I had a weekend off ahead of Cheltenham week to recharge the batteries/get over the hangover before what most of us see as the highlight of the entire racing year. I do appreciate the majority of the rest of the racing world outside of the UK, Ireland and France don’t see National Hunt racing as much of a feast, but for us it is akin to religion – the best horses taking each other on for perhaps the only time all season, no quarter asked or given, and form my personal perspective a chance to see old friends in action, in some cases perhaps their last races before retirement. Sadly, there will be injures, and they are more “in your face” than on the flat, but all we can do as spectators is hope and pray they all come home safely and enjoy them while they are here. Of course, we could all do more racing politics and argue whether the Elliott ban is really any such thing, but I will save that for another day and for now, let’s all enjoy the one race meeting that defines the winter game – one day at a time, and with no expectations of having all the winners (sadly).
Tuesday.
Supreme Novices Hurdle 1.20pm
No Cheltenham roar this year thanks to the absence of any crowds but still a cracker to start the week, and the age old problem of short priced favourite versus each way value – a theme I suspect will continue over all four days. As you would expect, despite a long hard look at the form and the expected line-up for race day, I have waited as late into Monday as I dare to get a better handle on the expected going – barring any freak drought or heavy overnight storms, of course. Appreciate It has headed the market for some time now and is many people’s idea of the banker of the week, but at 11/8 or thereabouts he looks far shorter than he should be in a competitive race and may be worth opposing. Having recorded a pre Festival podcast last week and coming down on the side of Metier as an each way alternative (6/1 does look sorely tempting), I cannot oppose him now though as I am a huge fan of Harry Fry, my opinion needs to be taken accordingly. Unbeaten after three starts he stayed on well enough at Sandown last time to suggestion Cheltenham won’t be an issue and having taken 6/1 (now 4/1) I am hopefully sitting pretty enough for starters. Of course, Appreciate It should win, and I will have him in a short prices acca (see the end of the page) but value is the name of the game the way I try to play it, and Metier will do for me on this occasion.
Arkle Chase 1.55pm
Another shortie to deal with here in the shape of Shishkin but at heavily odds on, he only earns a place in the acca today - any fool can tip up a winner at that price, even me, but if he gets turned over, what then? Wind the clock back twelve months and there we see Shishkin winning the Supreme Novices Hurdle at odds of 6/1 in a decent race with Abacadabras, Chantry House, and Asterion Forlonge filling the first four places. Coming to three out I would dare to claim that Captain Guinness was going as well and perhaps even better than the winner before he was hampered and then brought down two out, and on that (admittedly hurdles) form, I quite like his chances. Over fences, Henry De Bromhead’s charge has won at Punchestown, finished second at Naas, and was serving it up to Energumene at Leopardstown when falling two out, not the ideal form I would prefer to see for an Arkle challenger, but sorely tempting at 8/1 even if only to the smallest of stakes.
Ultima Chase 2.30pm
Not a race I like or have a good history in to be fair so please don’t expect any fireworks here. My database “only” goes back 23 runnings but I did note that no horse has won this at a short price than 9/2 which does not bode well for 3/1f Happygolucky. Seven and eight year olds dominate which I see as good news and reinforcement of my each way selection in Alnadam for Harry and Dan Skelton. Priced at a sorely tempting 10/1 as I write, with his last success at Sandown over shorter catching the eye and his trainer adamant we are yet to see the best of him (and that three miles won’t be an issue), he does have to carry eight pounds more for his sins, but I am hopeful if not confident that this is a plan coming to fruition and at a double figure price, I just cannot resist temptation. Of the rest, Milan Native and Vintage Clouds intrigue after wind operations (first run since and second, respectively), and could surprise, but decisions need to be made, and at the moment I am happy enough with my suggestion here.
Champion Hurdle 3.05pm
I would love to tell you I have this one solved but sadly I don’t, and I am still smarting after my ante post bet at a huge price for Buveur D’Air was torn up after connections decided to send him to Aintree instead. Honeysuckle heads the market and it is hard to knock a horse with a record of ten starts and ten successes, however hard I try. Although she started off in lesser company and in mares only races, she has proved her worth this season with a Hatton’s Grace success against the geldings and a very easy win in the Irish Champion Hurdle last time out (Abacadabras, Sharjah, and Saldier well beaten on the day), suggesting she is the one to beat this afternoon. That said, I have to wonder if the wellbeing of Epatanteis the reason Buveur D’Air skips the race, and if last year’s winner is back to her best as I hope, we have a race on our hands. My hope is that the rains stay away overnight and the going remains Good to Soft or similar, in which case I do wonder if Nicky Henderson’s mare has the better turn of foot over two miles which is more her trip, though this is not a race I will be betting in and more one to sit back and watch with awe with any luck.
Mares Hurdle 3.40pm
A race synonymous with trainer Willie Mullins who has won seven of the last ten runnings, four of those with wonder mare Quevega, and once again eh has the favourite for 2021 in Concertista. Priced as short as 6/5 now she will be added to the acca but in my view, she has the same chance as Roksana who is over twice her price at 3/1. I don’t know too many horses who seem to be getting better at the age of nine, but the daughter of Dubai Destination who won this race in 2019 really impressed over further at Ascot when running away with the Warfield hurdle. The plain form of that race isn’t enough to win this, but it did at least prove her current wellbeing, and with connections originally sorely tempted to have a shot at the Starters hurdle instead, it may yet prove to be very telling that they have (sensibly?) decided to target her here instead. The Skelton yard remain in decent enough form (if not exactly setting the World on fire), and at the prices she does look the better value of the pair. Of the rest, indefatigable could go well at a big price for Paul `Webber if her wind operation brings any improvement, but in reality, it ought to be a straight fight between the first two in the market barring any mishaps.
Boodles Handicap Hurdle 4.15pm
Anyone who knows me will be fully aware of my attitude to handicaps – good fun but not serious betting opportunities. Trying to work out the best horse I any given race isn’t as easy as some will have you believe, doing the same thing when an outside influence (aka the handicapper) has decided what weight they carry a) makes life more difficult and b) can encourage a touch of dishonesty in the hunt for a winning handicap mark. As an example, assuming the original 22 stand their ground (there are reserves), then Nassalam has to give seventeen pounds to Elham Valley, which may or may not even things out, so it’s time to have a dig in to the stats, draw conclusions – and let you make up your own minds. Stat 1 – 136 horses who finished second or third on their previous start have tried to win this in the 16 runnings – none have been successful (horses removed accordingly). Stat 2 – No horse priced bigger than 40/1 has won this – there go some more. Nassalam and Youmdor leave us when you read no horse rated higher than 139 has taken this, others when you see nothing who finished worse than sixth last time out, or hasn’t run in the last 60 days, and already I am down to a workable list (simple, isn’t it – if only we could guarantee past stats will hold up). My up to date shortlist now reads Cabot Cliffs, Druid’s Altar, Balko Saint, Zoffanien, Coltor, Her Indoors, Tinnahalla, and Homme Public, though eight is still too many to deal with I suppose (though I may play to pennies on forecasts and tricasts just in case)! No more stats leap off the page (sadly), other than Joseph O’Brien’s one win form four runners for a 25% strike rate, and for the extremely tenuous reason (told you I hate handicaps), I will have 50p each way on Druid’s Altar at 20/1 or bigger, and with no confidence whatsoever.
National Hunt Chase 4.50pm
No point in looking at the jockeys who have taken this in the past as an amateur contest, with a covid ban on them for 2021 and professionals taking their place, but it still looks a competitive event whatever the betting implies. Fans of Galvin needn’t be in the slightest bit worried that he has moved to Ian Ferguson, he is in very capable hands and if he loses that will not be the reason - I am far more concerned to read that we have not had a winning favourite since back in 2013, though luckily the horse won’t know that. One thing we do know for certain is that this race has always been the target for the Festival and he has been deliberately rested since winning here over shorter in October with this race in mind. His form is outstanding sic ne a second in novice company here last season with four consecutive wins and as he is only seven, and I doubt we have seen the best of him yet, he is hard to oppose with the extended trip expected to bring about even more improvement. There are obviously plenty of dangers, possibly headed by Next Destination, though I am also interested in the other Nicholls runner Solider Of Love and Colin Tizzard’s Ofalltheginjoints who are both expected to go well and outrun their prices this afternoon, and could well land a place between them at the very least.
Sean’s Suggestions (all Cheltenham)
Treble
Appreciate it 1.20pm, Shishkin 1.55pm, Concertista 3.40pm
Win bet – Galvin 4.50pm
Each Way – Alnadam 2.30pm
Comments