ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
We have to start with something positive when the opportunity arises and with Cheltenham on this weekend it seems safe to suggest the jumps season is now underway with the chance to see some old favourites over the months ahead – winners or losers. I thought it might be nice to throw out the names of one hurdler and one chaser that I am looking forward to this season and although it would be easy (and perhaps lazy) to suggest Constitution Hill, we won’t be getting rich backing Nicky Henderson’s superstar so I need to look elsewhere. Finding a dark horse is never easy so ladies and gentlemen, I give you Tullyhill. Trained by Willie Mullins (who else), the son of Martaline won a point-to-point at Moira by a neck before changing hands for £220,000 and then winning a bumper at Gowran Park. He gave Cheltenham a swerve which surprised a few before heading to Punchestown where he was beaten by the best bumper horse of the year in the shape of A Dream To Share, but connections feel he has plenty of improvement to come once he faces the smaller obstacles. If he was mine two miles would be a no no and I would go to two and a half sooner rather than later, but either way I would be surprised if he can’t win a few races this season, wherever they choose to send him.
Over fences I can tell you that Paul Nicholls feels Golden Son is a decent sort, and he is all set to head to Warwick in a couple of weeks. Although off for some time since his last run in his native France, it was apparently a pretty minor leg injury and he has filled out and strengthened during his enforced break. A winner twice at Auteuil over hurdles and with some top-class form to his name, Paul seems pretty excited about his chances and he will do for me as a horse worth following.
Meanwhile, what did everyone think of Champions Day last weekend – proper fireworks or a bit of a damp squib? I do feel for Rod Street and Co at Ascot as they try each year to put on a season-defining card that we can all look forward to, but the fact is it’s at the end of a long hard season (it has to be by definition to be fair), and invariably has more cut in the ground than the majority of the top horses prefer, and 2023 was no different. Frankie Dettori stole the headlines, as he does, with an on the day double via Trawlerman (9/1) and King Of Steel (3/1) on his last ever (?) ride in the UK, and if you put that in a film script you would be laughed at as being totally unrealistic. As for the horses (far more important to me), the soft ground makes all the form questionable to me with the possible exception of Big Rock. The French raider strolled home by six lengths to land the Champions Mile and rapidly rise the ranks to now be considered the fourth best horse in the World (Equinox remains top, by the way), but I am willing to put my head above the ramparts and suggest – well it rhymes with pollocks! The time was 5.68 seconds slower than average that was his first and so far only Group One success, and I would be surprised if he could confirm that form on a firmer surface – which is my challenge if he stays in training next year, can he repeat the feat on good or quicker ground – though he still remains the eye-catcher of the day, albeit it reluctantly.
Lastly, and please remember these are my own views, I came out of a brief meeting with the Gambling Commission with a little more sympathy for them than I have had in the past (shoot me now!). That does NOT mean I agree with affordability checks which remain the elephant in the room as far as racing is concerned, but I can see that they are taking all the abuse for effectively trying to put in to motion something put upon them by the current government. They almost agreed with me that the current checks that are not legally mandated are something they need to look at now (and not a moment too soon in my view, or there won’t be any punters left by the time the act comes into place at this rate) which is hopefully a positive, though my fear is that we now have a Racing v Gambling Commission “war” where everything is seen in black and white, when anyone with a modicum of common sense can see the answer has to lie somewhere in the grey? Blessed are the peacemakers or something like that, and I am hoping that I put forward a few logical arguments without shouting which may yet be taken on board.
Talking of bookmakers, step forward Bet365, who made tens of millions last year are my latest example of “Gam Aware” with one side of their mouth – and shut down punters who even look like winning with the other. A friend of mine (nothing to do with racing, by the way) opened an account last month with the £10 deposit which got him £30 in free bets. His original tenner went on a dog that won at 7/4 (so £17.50 profit), and his second bet was another tenner on a dog (from his bonus funds) which lost at odds of 7/2. Believe it or not, they then shut his account using the well-worn phrase of “trader decision”which is laughable IMO and something I did mention ot the Gambling Commission, though now is not the time politically to be suggesting bookmakers should actually stand a bet!
On to the racing….and I am sticking with Cheltenham this week…
Saturday Racing
1.15pm Cheltenham
I won’t pretend I am not a little wary of the early prices ahead of this contest but I note that current jolly Haddex Des Obeaux is ywet ot iwn in his seoasnl return and much as I am a huge fan of trainer Gary Moore, I am willing to look elsewhere this afternoon. Although her has to carry top weight, there is good reason for that as Notlongtillmay won his first three starts over fences before a best ever effort when second, beaten three and a quarter lengths by Stage Star in the Turners Novice Chase here at the Festival in March with the odds-on The Mighty Potter behind him in third. Although hem ay b e better over further than this tow miles he did win over a furlong shorter on his first start over fences, and with a fast run race almost guaranteed and the stiff uphill finish, I can envisage him making most rr all of the running here and coming home alone.
1.50pm Cheltenham
Once again there has been plenty of early money for a Gary Moore runner, with Spirit D’Aunou as short as 2/1. but if he wins, then you really have to question why we bother having official handicappers? The Paul Nicholls trained Blueking D’Oroux is officially rated 9lb or more superior to all of his rivals after his second to Punctuation in a classy Aintree handicap but meets them all at level weights with the exception of Punta De l Este - who has to give him 4lb! If he is fit to go (and he should be having seen the facilities at Ditcheat) then he wins this – and if he doesn’t, barring a fall , then I have to question why we bother with ratings at all.
2.25pm Cheltenham
Lord Accord seems to be the one being backed in the last few days and he can go well if the money is as shrewd as I suspect, but my preference here is for Quick Draw who looks potentially well-handicapped, a rare statement indeed for a horse trained by Nicky Henderson. He made all to won as he pleased at Ludlow earlier in the month, giving him a fitness edge over some of these, and although upped 8lb for his 21 length romp that day, he may have improvement to come and could go on to better things for his top stable.
3.00pm Cheltenham
The first three in the latest betting are all trained in Ireland which may say more about the state of our horses than the riches of theirs, but whatever you read elsewhere they don’t come over here and win all our races – just a lot more than their fair share. They may win, they may even take the top three (God forbid), or they may provide us with a bit of value courtesy of Hugos New Horse, who has always been held in some regard at the Nicholls stable. The winner of five of his seven starts over hurdles from two to two and a half miles, he steps up in trip this afternoon which might be why he is currently a double figure price, but stamina has always looked to be his forte, and if it brings about the improvement I expect then he could prove difficult to keep out of the frame at least.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Hugos New Horse Each Way 3.00pm Cheltenham
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