I am not going to bore you here as I am sure you all have plenty of other’s opinions to take note of elsewhere as well (I don’t blame you either, you can never have too much information) – but a brief recap of day one and no excuses. Appreciate It was awesome in the opener and looks a real machine – but if you need me to point you to odds on winners then best of luck, while Metier was dwarfed in the paddock and his fate was sealed in my eyes before the race even started. Shishkin kept favourite backers happy when running away with the Arkle, though I still feel Captain Guinness could have got second had his jumping not fallen apart late on, and I do have to ask why the other jockeys ran it to suit the jolly instead of slowing it down and at least trying to cause him to answer some questions.
Hats off to Vintage Clouds for making all the running in the first handicap of the week as he ditched every stat imaginable to come home in front at the age of eleven after a ding dong battle with my suggestion who somehow faded late on in to seventh, while what can I say about Honeysuckle who ran away with the Champion Hurdle. All the money was down for yet another favourite who was given a perfect ride by Rachel Blackmore, and although we all know Epatante would never have got to the winner, I am unsure how Aidan Coleman managed to get trapped on the rail when she was still travelling before finally getting out long after the winner had already flown.
Black Tears caught Concertista and ruined the short priced treble (booo) though the abuse on so called social media aimed at the Mullins jockey for being beaten a head is frankly laughable, and hats off to anyone who had 80/1 chance Jeff Kidder in the next who became the longest priced winner on the day – and in the history of his particular race. Saving the best to last and we did land the bet of the day in Galvin, though I have to thank Ron Robinson for that one – he has been banging on about his chances for so long it was imprinted on my subconscious and I had no choice but to go for him which ended up as a wise move, so obviously not one of mine.
On to Day Two of the greatest race meeting on the planet bar none – enjoy!
Cheltenham
Wednesday.
Ballymore Novices Hurdle 1.20pm
I wonder what odds I would have obtained about a pitiful seven runners for one of the best novice races of the entire season? I find it shocking and close to embarrassing to be honest, but worse still, hardly worthy of an each way play (unless you did so earlier like me and are still lucky enough to be sitting on four places). Bob Olinger is many people’s idea of the banker of the meeting and that is a tough viewpoint to avoid after the six year-old hacked up at Naas when last seen in a decent looking contest where he had the well regarded Blue Lord in arrears (I am writing this before he takes his place in the opener on Tuesday), and by the end of the race, even the 15/8 on offer may well look pretty generous. I can no longer see a reason to oppose him (I am on Bear Ghylls each way at a big price but now we are down to seven I can’t suggest him now), who has to improve on what we have seen so far, but remains unbeaten, schools well at home but has issues on the track, and could well be top class once he gets his act together at his obstacles, but I just can’t quite bring myself to take that risk this afternoon I’m afraid.
Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase 1.55pm
Six runners – enough said. Anyone with half a brain (that would be me) can see the chances of Monkfish who is close to impossible to oppose here and sadly priced accordingly. His record is exemplary with three out of three since being sent over fences, and may well be the one to set his own pace in this minimal field. You will all have read that Colin Tizzard is handing over his licence to son Joe shortly and I am sure he would like to go out with a bang, and if there is a chink in the jolly’s armour to exploit, The Big Breakaway could yet be the one to do so. I have to admit, he is yet to live up to expectations over the jumps but has always been seen as out of the top drawer at home, and I remember being told they saw him as a future Gold Cup winner and yes, that was straight from the horse’s mouth. A win here at Cheltenham offered false hope, but he hasn’t jumped well in two starts since and thus cannot be suggested this afternoon I’m afraid. Interestingly, Robbie Power, who rides most of the stables top horses and has been on The Big Breakaway on all of his six starts under rules is now on board stable companion Fiddlerontheroof, the 28/1 outsider (in a first time tongue tie), and although I see this as a no bet race at the prices (acca excepted), I may have a small reverse forecast on Monkfish and Fiddlerontheroof, just in case.
Coral Cup Hurdle 2.30pm
Twenty-six runners in a handicap, 6/1 the field, and winners in the last ten years at odds of up to 33/1, so good luck to anyone getting involved here. Once again, it’s time to go through the stats (have I ever told you I really don’t like handicaps?), in a vain attempt at trying to at least cut down the field before looking for the lucky pin, but all they have managed is to remove ONE of the twenty-six horse field – not a lot of good then unless we step out of 100% “facts”. 18 of the 23 years I have access to saw a horse who finished in the first six last time out come home in front so that pruned the tree a little, while the same percentage (18/23) sees horses who carried eleven stone three or less successful leaving me with “just” the sixteen to deal with! Twenty-one winners were eight or younger ( four more deleted), and eighteen were in the first eleven in the betting leaving me with Craigneiche, Guard Your Dreams, Monte Cristo, Birchdale, Botox Has, and Shang Tang, though be warned – the stats are from SP and I can only work from the current odds. Being honest (a rare concept in this game), I have to say I have close to zero confidence the winner will be in that list, but if it is, then the one I want to be on is Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Guard Your Dreams each way with connections convinced we will see an even better horse upped to this trip, though I may well decide to mess about with 10p forecasts and tricasts just in case I can hit a seam of gold from the stats (if only).
Queen Mother Champion Chase 3.05pm
If Chacun Pour Soi is as good as he looks then the rest are turning up for place money only here, but at odds on, with no experience of Cheltenham, and with perhaps more stamina than some think, he looks set for the acca and nothing else this Wednesday afternoon. I do note that in all the Willie Mullins quotes I can find he is yet to mention Cheltenham as a target, which makes me wonder why – or has the horse simply improved out of all recognition. My antepost portfolio already contains Politologue who won here last season, but he was put in his place by First Flow last time out at Ascot and sadly I can see no reason why that form should be reversed. There is a school of thought that suggests Kim Bailey’s nine-year-old needs heavy going to be seen at his best, and that may even be proved correct, but he has only raced once on good to soft ground when fourth in a bumper so I don’t feel we should be reading that too literally. Rain on Monday sees the going as soft, good to soft in places as I write, and if he handles that then 14/1 is way too big and worthy of a little each way tickle here.
Glenfarclas Chase 3.40pm
The one real “marmite” race of the entire meeting as up to fourteen runners head off on the Cross Country circuit and away from the main track. Plenty see it as a novelty event and one that doesn’t belong at the home of National Hunt racing, but if it makes the right kind of headlines and attracts newcomers to the sport, I see plenty of positives – and after all, you don’t have to bet on it if you don’t want to. This year we have an intriguing renewal in my eyes at least, with Easyland the Even money favourite after taking this last year and a promising return when fourth here in November and of course, dual Grand National winner Tiger Roll who took this race in both 2018 and 2019, but who isn’t getting any younger at the age of eleven. Both are far too short in the betting for me and although I was sorely tempted by Kingswell Theatre for loyalty reasons, my bet will be an each way one on Le Breuil whose last win was here over close to four miles back in 2019. He has run well enough without success since but the key to him may be something to spark his interest again and word is these fences will do exactly that. 20/1 looks a huge price to me and he will carry my each way hopes, though I may double up with Balko Des Flos who is another expected to show improvement for something different thi afternoon.
Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase 4.15pm
A race named after Nicky Henderson’s father, though he seems to have struggled to find a decent contender this season with Theinval the rank outsider at 40/1 to bring home the spoils. The fact that favourite Embittered has never won a race over fences and was beaten twenty-three lengths in to fourth last time out says it all as far as I am concerned and if it wasn’t for the placepot players, I would not even bother coming up with a suggestion. Ibleo came under consideration and should finish somewhere near the head of affairs with a clear round, but he ought to struggle to come home in front of Sky Pirate at these weights taking December form at face value, and with my selection improving since he ought to go mighty close here at odds of 13/2 which makes him each way value too. Beaten fourteen lengths by Allmankind last time out, that was in the Grade Two Kingmaker at Warwick and with this drop in class looking a real positive, I am confident of a good and hopefully successful effort.
Champion Bumper 4.50pm
Fifteen runners declared, ten of them a winner last time out, and four of them unbeaten – class from top to toe but tough to call the winner, though the fact that the Irish have won seven of the last ten renewals and Willie Mullins four of them part explains the early betting. He dominates the bookmakers thoughts with both Kilcruit and Sir Gerhard vying for favouritism, with the latter ex Gordon Elliott for anyone scratching their heads. Both have been impressive, though the unknown factor is the recent horse move – can Willie improve Sir Gerhard, or will he be upset at the change of scenery – who knows. Using the evidence of these old eyes, Kilcruit just does everything a fraction easier than his market rival (who may yet have the better turn of foot), and will be my reluctant suggestion, though I came close to going for Super Six as an each way alternative at a huge price – trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies won this with Ballyandy in 2016 so knows the sort needed, and as he is currently unbeaten, we are yet to find out just how good he can be when asked the question.
Sean’s Suggestions (all Cheltenham)
Treble
Bob Olinger 1.20pm, Monkfish 1.55pm, Chacun Pour Soi 3.05pm
Win bet – Sky Pirate 4.15pm
Each Way – Le Breuil 3.40pm
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