Cheltenham Wednesday 15th March 2023
Race One: Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle
Five in a row again here for the Irish challengers and the last three at pretty short prices, and they will expect to add to that here with six of the first seven in the betting trained over the Irish Sea. Gaelic Warrior is the best of them according to the ratings, but the market suggests otherwise with the unbeaten Impaire Et Passe at the head of the betting after wins at Nancy in a French bumper, and Naas and Punchestown over hurdles. He is yet another Willie Mullins horse who could go on to be anything, but he lacks in experience for me and I prefer the chances of Hermes Allen. The six-year-old is getting better with every race and has won over course and distance which has to be seen as an advantage, and although there is a suspicion as always that the Irish form may be that much stronger, he has done nothing wrong in three starts over hurdles and may well be staying on a lot stronger than most as they head up the Cheltenham hill.
Hermes Allen 1.30pm Cheltenham
Race Two: Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase
With six of the last 10 winners, the Brits will be hoping they can keep the prize this side of the Irish Sea once again, and a quick look through the stats will soon tell you that historically, Thyme Hill is up against it (no nine year old has won this in the last 25 year). That is a shame, and I still think he can run well regardless if he irons out his occasionally suspect jumping, but whether he can cope with Gerri Colombe who some close to the Elliott yard see as the banker of the meeting, is open to question. Unbeaten after a point-to-point, two bumpers, two hurdles, and three races over fences, we really have no idea just how good he can be, but we do know he stayed on well over shorter to win the Scilly Isles Chase at Sandown last month, and if he can brush up on the odd novicey error they can all make on occasion, then he may well land the odds this afternoon.
Gerri Colombe 2.10pm Cheltenham
Race Three: Coral Cup
A huge field is virtually assured here, though don’t be surprised if we see something come home at a huge price, with winners at 33/1 and 50/1 in the last two years, both under claiming jockeys who took a few pounds off their backs. I have gone though a long list of stats (which I won’t bore you with) to knock it down one at a time and have ended up with a shortlist of four who fit the majority of the winners over the last 25 years. They are HMS Seahorse, Watch House Cross, San Salvador, and Riaan, and with the first named expected to improve for his first start after a gelding operation, and with more room to improve at the age of five, he will be my pick each way – though I may well play them all in penny exotics for a bit of added fun (tricasts etc).
HMS Seahorse 2.50pm Cheltenham Each Way
Race Four: Queen Mother Champion Chase
This may be the big race of Day Two but I struggle to see a real standout horse among the two mile chasers at present, with early favourite Energumene comfortably beaten here in late January. I suspect this may be a bit more open than the odds suggest, and if Editeur Du Gite improves again as hoped, there is no reason why he cannot run a huge race. Trained near me by Gary Moore, he had the Irish challenger a long way adrift of him when winning here by a head from Edwardstone in January, and as they all meet on the same terms here, there is no real reason why he cannot confirm that form.
Editeur Du Gite 3.30pm Cheltenham
Race Five: Cross Country Chase
A proper “marmite” of a race with plenty of punters I know completely non-plussed by any contest on the cross country course. Whatever your view, it is now part and parcel of the Festival, and everyone should take note that we haven’t seen a winner at a double figure price since back in 2015, so it is more punter friendly than many of the other contests this week. I do appreciate that Delta Work won this last season, and for that reason alone he deserves his place at the head of the betting, but 5/4 looks too skinny to me and I prefer hid stable companion Galvin. Rated 7lb or more superior to all of his rivals here, he won the National Hunt Chase here in 2021 and was fourth in the Gold Cup last season, though he has gone off the boil a little since. I am hoping but not confident that these very different fences will rekindle his love of the game, and if that is the case, he could well prove a class apart this afternoon.
Galvin 4.10pm Cheltenham
Race Six: Grand Annual Chase 4.50pm
Six of the last eight winners of this handicap have been trained in the UK so this is another contest we should hope to do well in, though as always, I suspect the Irish will still have something up their sleeves. That said, I have already been on podcasts elsewhere shouting the value to be had in Thyme White, and it would be remiss of me to change my mind here. Aimed at this race by trainer Paul Nicholls, he clearly goes best fresh as seen when he hacked up at Ascot in Ocotber before running like a cart horse three weeks later at the same track. Lessons were learned that day and he has been held back for this contest specifically and if he can repeat his first time out form off a mark just 5lb higher under Harry Cobden we may well see a massive run at a big price to boot.
Thyme White 4.50pm Cheltenham Each Way
Race Seven: Champion Bumper
Not a race the home team can be too hopeful of with the last six runnings (and eight of the last 10) hailing from Ireland, and the last three trained by (you guessed it), Willie Mullins. 11 of the runners here arrive unbeaten, with a further five a winner last time out, so something has to give and the first ten home here may all take high rank over hurdles next season. A Dream To Share tops the early betting having been bought privately by J P McManus and he can go well, along with the supposed Mullins first string Its For Me, but I will take a chance on Fun Fun Fun to small stakes. Owned by Simon Munir and Isaac Souede, Daryl Jacob invariably rides their horses and he is on board this afternoon, and after easy wins at Sligo and Leopardstown and with her 7lb mare’s allowance as well she may shake them all up – and at a bigger price.
Fun Fun Fun 5.30pm Cheltenham Each Way
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