For those reading my blog for the first (or second) time we start again with what I see as the good news – I am NOT a tipster, I do NOT make my money selling tips – I am a sports journalist of over 30 years’ experience who specialises in horse racing, and if you follow any of my thoughts then good luck – but don’t blame me for any losses you may make along the way!
This week only the plan is to go through each and every race at Cheltenham mentioning horses I have spoken to various trainers about, and if not, then giving you my own (possibly warped) opinion about a horse I hope will run well – winners may be beyond my abilities here with so ,many top class races to go through. Fingers crossed all round – we did well enough yesterday with two winners and a 33/1 place so fingers crossed we can do anywhere near as well today.
1.30pm Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle
Not much of a race to start the day with an odds on favourite the likeliest winner by far but is Envoi Allen any value? He has looked a decent sort in winning all eight races so far (one point to point, four bumpers including here last season and three over hurdles), but is he really as unbeatable as the price suggests? Probably is the honest answer but his price is too skinny for me and I will go looking elsewhere for some each-way value. Son Of Camas came mighty close to being my choice with 50/1 about a Nicky Henderson runner with Nico de Boinville in the saddle and having his first run back form a wind operation looks way too big but in the end I remember the Tizzard’s think a lot of future chaser The Big Breakaway who is available at a double figure price despite his unbeaten record. His lack of experience is a concern (one point to point and two contests over hurdles) but he is a beast of a specimen and could go close at a price – though I thought that about Fiddlerontheroof in the opener on Tuesday and we all know how that worked out!
2.10pm RSA Novices’ Chase
This isn’t a race I like very much and not one I have been too successful in over the years – you have been warned. The Tizzards seemed keener on Copperhead than they were on Slate House though both should go well, while Minella Indo has Rachael Blackmore in the saddle and we all saw just how good she is in the saddle when cheering home Honeysuckle yesterday afternoon. That pairing took the Albert Bartlett over hurdles here last year and he will go from strength to strength now he has been moved up to three miles, but I will stick with Champ. Trip and track look ideal and had he not fallen when looking all over the winner last time out here he would surely be a far shorter price. He has schooled well since then according to Nicky Henderson and looks to have as good a chance as any here, so fingers and toes crossed for a decent (preferably winning) effort.
2.50pm Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle
Big priced winners are hardly an unknown in this contest with Nicky Henderson’s William Henry rewarding supports at odds of 28/1 last season, meaning nothing is impossible. One winning favourite in the last twenty-four years tells us everything we need to know about our chances if I am honest, though we will come up with something if it kills me. Owner J P McManus arrives mob handed and the fact that Dame De Compagnie trades as low as 5/1 suggests that either the bookies are running scared, or he has already had a decent bet or two, but we have to decide if all of the value has already disappeared? Despite jockey bookings telling me I am wrong I quite like the look of Birchdale but seeing as anything can happen in this race, how about Gary Moore’s Traffic Fluide each way. I will admit I am a big fan of my local trainer who I know quite well, but more importantly, he is as shrewd as they come. A decent chaser at his best, he fell over fences at Ascot when in with a chance in the Grade One Betfair Ascot Chase and runs off seven pounds lower over hurdles here suggesting he has a chance. Now a ten-year-old this would be seen as his minimum trip perhaps, but a fast run race may see him staying on through beaten horses and he could surprise a few this afternoon.
3.30pm Queen Mother Champion Chase
Altior would have been my bet of the day had he made it to the start but sadly he has not recovered in time and for me, a lot of the gloss has gone. There is so much possible pace here that even guessing the front runner would be a mystic art, but if Barry Geraghty sensibly lets them cut each other’s throats, then Defi Du Seuil will prove hard to beat. He can idle once he hits the front so a good pace may yet play into his hands, though his price stinks with Paul Nicholls reporting both Politologue and Dynamite Dollars in good form at home, and the Willie Mullins trained Chacun Pour Soi also on an upward curve. The small field is a bit of a disappointment and leaves us without any sensible each way alternatives with a place one and two, and I doubt we are seeing another Sprinter Sacre or Master Minded in action this season.
4.10pm Cross Country Chase
Odds on at Cheltenham goes against everything I stand for and although dual Grand National winner Tiger Roll is a class act who took this is 2018 and 2019, these are strange and dangerous fences, and I have a sneaking suspicion he may not be 100% this year with Aintree history beckoning for the now ten-year-old. Easyland is his market rival of sorts and comes here on the back of six consecutive victories but he has a screw loose in the past running out at Pau after falling on his previous two starts and 4/1 isn’t quite up to each-way standards. The question I am asking myself is which of the two horses mentioned so far would have even been sent off the favourite in a Gold Cup, and good as they may be, the answer is neither of them. Step forward Might Bite, appropriately named according to trainer Nicky Henderson, and second to Native River when sent off the 4/1 jolly for the 2018 Cheltenham Gold Cup. He hasn’t been the same horse since to be brutally honest, but he still has the talent when he chooses to use it, and at 16/1 here’s hoping these fences rekindle his old fire and enthusiasm as the each way call.
4.50pm Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle
It really doesn’t get any easier as the day goes on, does it? I am a huge fan of Paul Nicholls and it can only be a matter of time before he has a winner at this meeting but I am very wary that Mick Pastor has top weight to carry, and was beaten forty-one lengths on his only run here when reported to have choked on very similar going. He has had a wind operation since which may be all it takes, but as things stand, I see enough negatives to look elsewhere for the winner. Irish trainers do well here with four of the last seven winners including 2018 and 2019 and can hopefully win this yet again with Tronador who loos laid out ahead of his first run in a handicap after a win at Thurles and a third when held up a touch too long over further at Navan. A mark of 129 looks pretty generous when you think there is room for any amount of improvement, and he should go close with a clear round under the excellent Denis O’Regan. Palladium is another who will go well, but s I didn’t want this article to look as if it was sponsored by Nicky Henderson, I have swerved him on this occasion.
5.30pm Champion Bumper
I have never really seen where a bumper fits in to things at Cheltenham where for me it is supposed to be all about the jumping, but twenty-three owners, trainers, and jockeys clearly disagree with me. The head of the market has seen four winners from the last twenty-two runnings for a one in five(ish) strike rate, suggesting that Appreciate It will go well for the Willie Mullins yard. The winner of two of his three bumper starts he can make all or come from off the pace, which is useful to have on your side, but yet again his price is ludicrous, and I will look elsewhere. Queens Brook really caught the eye on her debut under rules at Gowran park when hacking up by a very easy twenty-one lengths at the line and if she improves for that as expected, then she can go close in receipt of seven pounds from her male adversaries. 9/1 seems a steal for each way punters if that is the case and after a very long and tiring day, I will pull up stumps with the Gordon Elliott mare my final selection today.
Commenti