Cheltenham Thursday 16th March 2023
Race One: Turners Novices’ Chase
Two and a half mile races always interest me more than most because the winner will need a mixture of speed and stamina, which is not that easy to find. This is invariably won by a decent horse, if not a world-beater, and this year that label seems most likely to apply to Mighty Potter if the punters are to be believed, and after three wins out of three over fences he wont be any kind of pushover here, that is for certain. He may yet a nap hand this afternoon, but I just wonder if the step up in trip will bring plenty of improvement from Appreciate It. Willie Mullins’ nine-year-old won the Supreme here in 2021 and returned with a sixth in the Champion Hurdle last year, and he won his first two starts over fences at Punchestown and Naas before a third at Leopardstown. He is closely related to numerous successful horses over two and a half miles and further, and if he takes a step forward for the two and a half miles today, he could be the surprise package.
Appreciate It 1.30pm Cheltenham
Race Two: Pertemps Final
Considering this type of contest (qualify by finishing in the first six home in certain races) seems to encourage hiding a horse’s true abilities ahead of the big day, it won’t come as a huge surprise to read we had a 50/1 winner last year – and a 33/1 winner the year before. Once again I have gone through all the stats available to me to draw up a (pretty long) shortlist before I concluded that hard as I try, I am struggling to see past Thanksforthehelp, who had little more than an exercise canter when winning a decent handicap at Chepstow last month after returning from a wind operation. The handicapper clearly liked what he saw that day and stuck him up another 11lb, but he is completely unexposed over three miles or so and if he arrives in the same form then he may well win pulling a caravan once again under jockey Mark Walsh, who takes over from Kevin Brogan here.
Thanksforthehelp 2.10pm Cheltenham
Race Three: Ryanair Chase
Allaho would have been a short price here to make it a hat-trick in this two mile five furlong chase, but injury has ruled him out so we will see a new name on the trophy for 2023. Willie Mullins has won five of the last seven runnings, and he still warrants plenty of respect with Blue Lord seemingly his number one pick this year by the look of the jockey bookings, but if Shishkin turns up in the same form as last time out at Ascot he is close to impossible to oppose. The winner of the Arkle Trophy in 2021 he had an off day when pulled up in the Queen Mother Champion Chase here last season and had looked a shadow of his former self. Nicky Henderson and his team appear to have answered his issues with a wind operation, after which he strolled home by 16 lengths in the Ascot Chase from Pic D’Orhy who I know Paul Nicholls expected to win. He could or even should improve for that run, and although I am wary of Envoi Allen who is a very capable sort when everything goes his way, the jolly is, on this occasion, difficult to bet against.
Shishkin 2.50pm Cheltenham
Race Four: Stayers’ Hurdle
I do love this race, though that doesn’t mean I will find the winner (sadly), though obviously I will try my best. Flooring Porter has been 50/50 to make it here to try to land his hat-trick in this event, but good as he is, you have to be concerned that he may have been rushed to get him into the final line-up, with the betting on the day perhaps the better guide to his chances. Blazing Khal has been well-backed all week despite reports of a poor piece of work on Monday so someone somewhere has got it wrong, while by old mate Paisley Park is capable on his day, but this looks an ask too far for him at the age of 11. We haven’t seen a French winner since way back in 2003 when Baracouda followed up his 2002 success, and that may explain why Gold Tweet is as big as 10/1 despite running on strongly to get up and win by three lengths in the Cleeve Hurdle here in late January. Held up out the back that day but always travelling well, he seems sure to get a good pace to attack again this afternoon, and with the give in the ground looking ideal if he gets a clear run, he may well be capable of putting this lot to bed where it really matters.
Gold Tweet 3.30pm Cheltenham each way
Race Five: Plate Handicap Chase
Once again I have run my way through a long list of statistics as my way of trying to ferret out the winner of a very trappy looking handicap, and after hours of work all I have managed to do is get it down to a short list of eight horses, which is not a lot of use to anyone! Of that octet, Il Ridoto is highest in the weights and lowest in the betting after winning her over C&D last time out. He is very closely matched with Fugitif on that form, but I just got the feeling he could have pulled out more if needed at the end, and as long as the Irish don’t haver anything hiding from the handicapper somewhere, he has as good a chance as any here.
Il Ridoto 4.10pm Cheltenham each way
Race Six: Mares Novices’ Hurdle 4.50pm
Trainer Willie Mullins won the first five runnings of this contest, closely followed by a success for Henry De Bromhead, though we did finally see a British success last year with Harry Fry’s Love Envoi. This year the market is dominated by Luccia, who has done nothing but impress so far with wins at Warwick and Sandown in bumpers, Newbury and Exeter over hurdles. She has looked absolutely out of the top drawer in those contests and may yet make mincemeat of all of these, but at 13/8 the value has all gone and I will have a small each way bet on Princess Zoe at a double figure price instead. She was anything but as impressive despite winning (well, dead heating) on her one start over obstacles at Punchestown. Rated 114 at her peak on the Flat and a legitimate Group One performer, if she can get her hurdling together she has flat speed to burn, and if there is a surprise here, she could yet be the horse to provide it.
Princess Zoe 4.50pm Cheltenham
Race Seven: Kim Muir Challenge Cup 5.30pm
Chambard took this last year for Venetia Williams at odds of 40/1 at the age of 10, and he is back again in 2023, but he has to carry 3lb more this year and the stable don’t seem to be in the best of form in recent weeks and I am happy enough to look elsewhere. I may well be proved wrong (not for the first time), but I cannot for the life of me see why Henry De Bromhead’s Royal Thief is as big as 10/1 with his profile. Lightly raced for a nine-year-old with only three starts over fences over the last two years plus, he was brought down at Punchestown in November 2020 and not seen again until a winning return in January when he scored by 10 lengths in the Amateur National. Once again it seems fair to think he can and will improve for his first start in over two years and if that is the case, he could well power home up the Cheltenham hill for jockey J W Hendrick who claims a useful 5lbs off his back.
Royal Thief 5.30pm Cheltenham
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