Here we go again and apparently, I have been causing a few arguments among friends! As I keep saying (I feel I have to), I am not a tipster – they have an even shoddier reputation than us journalists – and I am only here to keep you interested and perhaps chuck the odd cat among the pigeons. This is a game about opinions, and I am quite aware that some will agree with my musings though even more will simply laugh, and that, ladies and gentlemen, is what sport is all about – enjoy.
1.30pm Marsh Novices’ Chase
An intriguing race to start the day and one that looks to be a field full of what could have been rather than perhaps the talent we normally expect. That does seem a bit harsh I suppose but we have a twelve year-old hurdling star and Champion Hurdle winner running in a novice over fences (Faugheen), a second Mullins would be star who has never really lived up to their lofty expectations (Melon), a one-time Champion Hurdle favourite (Samcro), and others having their first starts since a wind operation (Poker Play and Samcro), with Poker Play also sporting blinkers for the first time. Fair to say that Hercule Poirot would struggle to put all those clues into any relevant order but what can you do? Too many make mistakes at their fences to approach this with too much confidence but I am hoping that the wind op makes the difference to Samcro who has always been though of as a superstar in the making. He does have ten lengths to find with Faugheen on Limerick form so can’t be seen as any good thing, but he does get four years from his rival and may have that bit more room for improvement. Itchy Feet and Mister Fisher may prove the best of the youngsters and should go well, but it looks too difficult for me to compare the better hurdling form over fences with those who have already proved they jump better than their perhaps classier rivals.
2.10pm Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle
Twenty-four runners, three miles or so, and a handicap, what’s not to like lol? With over £56,000 to the winner it would come as no great surprise to find a list of horses laid out for this contest and perhaps not showing their very best in recent races to avoid the attentions of the dreaded handicappers – but which ones is the $64,000 question? The bookmakers are already running scared of the Irish contenders with the first three in the betting trained in the Emerald Isle, with The Storyteller currently as short as 6/1 to take this for trainer Gordon Elliott. Owner J P McManus has a very strong hand with his five runners and presumably Sire Du Berlais is his number one chance with Barry Geraghty in the saddle in the first colours (and first time blinkers), though whether 7/1 is value is a moot point.
Unowhatimeanharry would pick these up and carry them at his peak but he is now a twelve-year-old and could be in decline, though he would go close if rolling back the years, leaving Dream Berry as my stick a pin in the racecard each way suggestion. Trainer Jonjo O’Neil seemed even cagier than normal at the handicappers’ lunch at Cheltenham last month and I wondered why at the time – perhaps the nine-year-old was the reason after just the one start this season when runner up at Sandown. Sadly, I note the Racing Post feel the same way (no, I hadn’t read that first) which may see his price contract come race time, but I am a huge fan of jockey Jonjo O’Neill Jnr who is in the saddle and as his trainer has won this contest four times, he has a sporting chance if nothing else.
2.50pm Ryanair Chase
With eight runners equally divided between Ireland and the United Kingdom you would hope the race would have a tasty each way angle to it but if there is, it looks pretty difficult to find with the bookmakers their usual generous selves. A Plus Tard is improving rapidly and possibly deserves his place at the head of the market but I always prefer form to promise and hope that Frodon can bounce back to his very best here and double up after winning this race last season. Obviously race tactics can and do change but I am hoping that Bryony Frost can get an easy lead from the off to get him in to a decent rhythm at his fences which is when we see him at his majestic best, and if that is the case and he pouts in a clear round, he could take some catching once again today. Min is the third horse worthy of a mention and it would not be any shock were he to come home in front as one of the most consistent horses in training but I am hoping the race plays to the Nicholls horse’s strengths and can confirm that he comes here in great form at home ahead of what was always his intended target.
3.30pm Stayers Hurdle
To oppose or not to oppose Paisley Park, that is the question. Sadly, he does look just about the most solid favourite of the whole meeting to me and by far the likeliest winner, but whether you fancy betting odds on when there are hurdles and other horses in the way is a choice only you can make with your own money. I am not totally convinced I can back him at 4/6 but I certainly can’t oppose him either as he looks for his eight consecutive success and his second stayers hurdle in a row. That said, I am expecting both West Approach (in first time cheekpieces) and L’Ami Serge to run big races at a price, though neither should be bothering the jolly barring any accidents.
4.10pm Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Plate Handicap Chase
One of those races where I wanted to revert to profiling, the methodology where you look back at all the past winners statistics, look for repeats and patterns, and still come up with a loser! My database covers the last 22 years sand frankly taught me very little (a massive waste of time to be honest), though I am happy to oppose the favourite off a mark of 149 as we are yet to see a winner off more than 147 (which loses horses 1-10 on the card, amusingly). That was a shame as I quite like Death Duty with Gavin Brouder’s seven-pound claim catching the eye, but you cannot unsee the stats so we move on regardless. Gordon Elliott certainly has a strong hand (as you would expect) with Ben Dundee looking the part after running well enough over an inadequate trip last time out, but in the end I will go for last year’s winner Siruh Du Lac who has only had the one run this season when pulled up here in November. He clearly needs to do better now but arrives here nice and fresh and at the age of seven has plenty more miles left in the tank, though at 12/1 or bigger he is only a speculative idea in a race perhaps best watched.
4.50pm Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle
Odds on an Irish winner here with six of the first seven in the current betting trained there, headed according to the betting by Minella Melody at odds around the 5/2 mark at the time of writing. Looking for a four-timer after successes at Cork, Punchestown, and Fairyhouse since being sent over hurdles, she creates a very familiar situation for punters everywhere – do we follow favourites blindly or do we oppose them just because we think they are a short price? She does look a little lazy at the business end and perhaps doesn’t find as much as expected off the bridle, but an unbeaten record speaks for itself and a bigger concern is the drop back in trip. Luckily, there looks to be plenty of pace in the race (Colreevy, Timetochill and Emmas Joy seem likely to take them along between them), which may well allow her stamina to come in to play where it counts nearest to the line. When you think of all the horses J P McManus could have entered here, it intrigues to see Full Of Surprises as his only runner. A winner on debut at Catterick, she failed to follow that up when folding very tamely on her only other start at Wetherby making her very tricky to gauge, but her connections are clever at placing their horses and she may yet live up to her name.
5.30pm Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase
One of those races you know you shouldn’t love being a handicap chase restricted to amateur riders, but it has plenty of history and as I am getting on a bit myself, I’ll confess it is one of my favourite contests of the entire meeting. Gone are the bd old days of jockeys struggling to stay on board in what was more of a comedy show than a serious race as owners and trainers scramble for the better pilots to give their charges every chance. One Style goes from strength to strength and looks for his sixth consecutive win over fences for Venetia Williams off six pounds higher than his last win at Ludlow and looks overpriced at 25/1 despite the rise in class, while The Young Master would be good enough to go close here under the excellent Sam Waley-Cohen. Cabaret Queen needs a mention as well and as many of you will know, I have been involved with Post Racing for many years now, and they used to own a piece of the mare when she was trained by Dan Skelton under the Highclere banner. She certainly has plenty of ability but seems less consistent as she gets older, though that won’t stop me calling her home if she looks to have a chance at any stage. All three named have place chances with a clear round, but my vote goes to Deise Aba with William Biddick riding after the seven-year-old won his second start in a row at Sandown last month. He looks the right age as a seven-year-old and has a lot more to come after just the four starts over fences and would be a bigger bet were he a bit more fluent at his fences, but he has the right man in the saddle to bring out the best in him and looks another with an each way chance to end a very tough looking day.
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