For those reading my blog for the first time we need to start with what I see as the good news – I am NOT a tipster, I do NOT make my money selling tips – I am a sports journalist of over 30 years’ experience who specialises in horse racing, and if you follow any of my thoughts then good luck – but don’t blame me for any losses you may make along the way!
This week only the plan is to go through each and every race at Cheltenham mentioning horses I have spoken to various trainers about, and if not, then giving you my own (possibly warped) opinion about a horse I hope will run well – winners may be beyond my abilities here with so ,many top class races to go through. Fingers crossed all round – I do not expect you to agree with any or all of my theories, but hopefully a quick read will at least cause some thought ahead of the best racing on the planet.
1.30pm Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
Its always good fun upsetting people so I will start here – the Irish form in general is pounds short of the British form – but that only makes their better horses so much more difficult to judge. We all know they pick our pockets every year and not necessarily with the ones we expect the most so remember we have four days to cope with and don’t go overboard betting on race one. Willie Mullins has won four of the last seven renewals so knows what is needed hence the short price of Asterion Forlonge, the winner of a point to point a Thurles bumper and both races over hurdles. He is not comfortably opposed by any means and neither is Shishkin who is well regarded by trainer Nicky Henderson, though Fiddlerontheroof is my each-way selection. Joe Tizzard seems to think he could well be something pretty special, and although his future lies over the larger obstacles sooner rather than later, his (assistant) trainer seemed the most confident and he will be carrying my money in the opener.
2.10pm Arkle Challenge Trophy.
It may be simply as my memory fades with old age or that I just prefer the glory days, but this doesn’t look the strongest Arkle ever in my book and might not take that much winning. Brewin’Upastorm is well fancied by the Olly Murphy yard with the assistance of Richard Johnson in the saddle an understated bonus and he may well lead the GB team home, making him excellent value, again each way for me, with 5/1 covering my costs if he places. He will need to be at his very best to cope with Notebook for the Henry De Bromhead stable who looks a very serios danger who rarely does much more than necessary to win making the seven-year-old particularly difficult to judge.
2.50pm Ultima Handicap Chase
The clue is in the title with handicaps so much tougher to call and some perhaps saved for today off a tasty racing mark, so do keep a very careful eye on the betting before committing as there may well be an off course gamble on something, I just don’t know what at this stage. Brave Eagle could get involved at a price for Nicky Henderson and looks massively overpriced for a horse who goes well fresh at odds of 25/1 but finding a horse at Seven Barrows you can describe as well handicapped is a rarity. He has to improve again on just his seventh start over fences but will have a few pennies of mine on now (just in case), with Vinndication my main punt. Kim Bailey was encouraging about his chances at the handicap lunch at Cheltenham the other week and he should know a lot more than me, though top weight here makes him anything but a banker I am afraid and he will need to come on for his Ascot run in November if he wants to stroll home in front here.
3.30pm Champion Hurdle
This may yet be all about the ground as any more rain will blunt the speed of some and aid the chances of others. Cilaos Emery did catch the eye when winning at Gowran Park last time out, but he is a chaser switched back to hurdles which suggests to me this a below standard renewal and that some of the form lines are open to question. Ballyandy will go well according to Nigel Twiston-Davies and he does like it here at Cheltenham with form figures of 113432 in bumpers or over hurdles. That suggests he may yet be worth a little each-way saver BUT the last nine-year-olds to win here were Hurricane Fly in 2013 and Rooster Booster back in 22003 suggesting he may have his work cut out today. With the younger horses beginning to hold sway all I can suggest is favourite Epatante who gets her mares’ allowance of seven pounds which could prove crucial. A daughter of No Risk At All, she is a ball of speed when called upon which is the worry in this ground, but if she repeats her run when winning the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton then she has as good a chance as any in what looks a wide open year.
4.10pm Mares’ Hurdle
The first of the really short priced horses at this year’s Festival and what do you know, I am opposing the jolly! Benie Des Dieux is not looked over lightly after winning this in 2018 and looking the likeliest to score again last season before tipping up at the last, but seeing as I was considering backing Honeysuckle for the Champion Hurdle why would I not to do the same here? Unbeaten after seven starts over hurdles after scoring in her point to point at Dromahane she hasn’t really put a foot wrong so far even if she was all out to take the Irish Champion Hurdle last time out at Leopardstown. That was over two miles hence the winning margins but over this added half mile she is that much better and although we won’t get rich backing them both to find out, this does look one of the match ups of the week and a race I am very much looking forward to.
4.50pm Northern Trust Company Novices’ Handicap Chase
Those who know me will be fully aware that I don’t like handicaps – asking to find a winner at level weights is hard enough, but when someone else has influenced it via varying weight on their backs it all gets too much for me, especially with novices who in some cases have so much more to offer. Joe Tizzard expected more from Highest Sun with the return to two and a half miles a bonus after he clearly failed to get home over nearer to three at Newbury last time out, but one win from five over fences suggests this could be a big ask. Imperial Aura stays even further and won’t be downing tools making him a major player, but I will take a chance to very small each way stakes on a big run from Earlofthecotswolds at 20/1 or bigger. He isn’t a solid bet or anything like that, but the Twiston-Davies yard do know the time of day and with Sam in the saddle have a sporting chance if nothing else.
5.30pm National Hunt Challenge Cup
Where do I start? As is sod’s law, more than one horse mentioned to me as having a chance here lines up, and with four in total, a decision needs to be made. Carefully Selected has been aimed at this race for a long time now and deserves his place at the head of the betting but he can make mistakes, and this is an unforgiving track. Newtide has more to offer for Kim Bailey, while Ravenhill has been the long term choice of many respected judges, even at these weights. All three are seen as very serious dangers to me but the 25/1 about Lamanver Pippin is just that little bit too tempting for a greedy punter like me, and although he has plenty to find at these weights (hence the price), the Tizzard yard think he has a lot more to give so I will be stepping in with the obligatory 50p each way, just in case.
Tomorrow- I flick through Sean’s Little Book of Excuses for why so many suggestions lost.
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