And so it comes to an end – one last day of a glorious Cheltenham Festival that survived some efforts to call it off (think virus) and came out smelling of roses, though the ground was a bit desperate on occasion (that’s my excuse for every loser of 2020 anyway). It’s been fun, it’s been tiring, and today is my last chance to say it’s been profitable (famous last words), but that’s Cheltenham for you, a surprise around every corner.
1.30pm Triumph Hurdle
Thirteen runners declared overnight, eight a winner last time out, and four of them unbeaten, so we could be in for quite a race. I am a huge fan of local to me trainer Gary Moore as I have mentioned previously, but I will admit to some surprise when I saw that his Goshen headed the early markets. Unbeaten since his stamina has been brought in to play, wins on the flat at Sandown and Nottingham were followed by three easy wins over hurdles at Fontwell, Sandown, and Ascot, and it will be interesting to see how he copes with what looks a step up in class against some equally exciting rivals. When you note that Willie Mullins has two entered here and see them priced up at 18/1 and 33/1 you know it’s a tough race to win, but I have to remind you that Paul Nicholls was spouting superlatives about Solo on my recent visit to the yard. When you consider that Champion Hurdle winner Epatante was rated 159 then a rating of 157 for the four-year-old son of Kapgarde suggest he is a quite extraordinary youngster, though how the handicappers reached that conclusion from one run in the UK and a thirteen length win from the 135 rated Fujimoto Flyer takes some working out (and perhaps a dodgy calculator). That said, he was impresssive putting daylight between himself and his rivals with the minimum of fuss and if he is as good as Paul thinks, then he wins this and does so with ease.
2.10pm County Hurdle
Trainer Dan Skelton has won the last two runnings of this highly competitive handicap (and three of the last four) which suggests he knows the sort needed and when a horse is well handicapped, so do at least consider Mohaayed who won this contest in 2018 and is having his first run since wind surgery this afternoon. He has won off higher than he is forced to carry today which is encouraging but 11/1 seems short enough for a horse who has failed to place in the first three in his last seven starts. Willie Mullins has a strong hand with the first three in the betting as things stand with Saint Roi my idea of their best chance, though after careful thought I am expecting a big run from Rathhill who looks interesting each way at odds of 25/1 for the in-form Nicky Henderson stable. Always held in high regard at Seven Barrow he was fourth on only his second start over hurdles when sent off the 6/5f at Sandown for the Grade One Tolworth Hurdle in January 2019 and has only been seen once since when out of sorts after eleven months off at Down Royal when tailed off. Once again, he was sent off favourite that day suggesting he still retains plenty of ability at home, and as another coming back from a wind operation, I am hoping and praying that sees the improvement needed to see him get involved here.
2.50pm Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
Three miles for novices over hurdles but there is plenty of experience in among the field including Ramses De Teillee who is better known as a chaser and was pulled up behind Tiger Roll in last year’s Grand National. As the Tizzard see very little between Harry Senior and Lieutenant Rocco I will have a little bit on the last named as he is the bigger price. It does appear Robbie Power has chosen the older option hence the price differential, but I cannot be unhappy with Harry Cobden in the saddle and if he gets home over this trip, he may even make the running and draw out the finishing speed of the better fancied competitors. Latest Exhibition was not passed over lightly, a remark that also applies to Thyme Hill but I am expecting a surprise and my suggestion has as good a chance as any of being the one.
3.30pm Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup
Here we go, you can keep the Grand National (it’s a handicap for goodness sake), this is the number on chase of the entire season – level weights, three and a quarter miles, and twenty-two fences to negotiate, a true test of ability and stamina with no excuses at the end of the day. Al Boum Photo is back to defend his crown after a two and a half-length success in 2019, but he was 12/1 that day and as short as 7/2 now which looks plenty short enough. Nigel Twiston-Davies is adamant that Bristol De Mai is overpriced, and I can’t say I disagree. Third last year here and less than three lengths behind Santini here in January when giving the winner two pounds and slipping on landing three out, he trades at six times the price of that rival which has to make him sorely tempting. That said, I was talked into the chances of Clan Des Obeaux when visiting the Nicholls empire and I see no real reason to change my mind now. As we all know horses are not machines, and they have taken a while to work out the optimum way to train him and have now decided he is best when he is fresh. Not seen since winning the King George in December that was always the plan, so we have no concerns on that score, and as Paul described him as his best chance of the week, I would have to be insane to go against the master trainer. A year older and stronger, his stamina is the only question mark but at 7/1 I’m already on each way, and will be surprised if I fail to collect.
4.10pm Foxhunters Chase
Four years ago, Minella Rocco beat Native River here in the four mile national Hunt Chase which is rock solid form, but he hadn’t won since until two recent Hunter Chases at Warwick and then Wetherby. If he can bring those sort of efforts to the table here, he will prove pretty hard to pass with Derek O’Connor in the saddle and in a wide open race where I have very little worthwhile opinion, he will do for me. Winners of this race regularly follow up the next season (Salsify, On The Fringe, and Pacha Du Polder for example), which suggests Hazel Hill is another to consider. Although he jumped right last time out when second to at Minella Rocco at Wetherby, I would suggest they will run him in a special bit to avoid that issue here, and on four pound better terms for a length and a half is should be close between them now. If you are looking for an outsider (and why not after the Stayers Hurdle result yesterday), then I would suggest Law Of Gold if the going keeps drying out and they have no more rain. A multiple winner in point to points (five in a row now) he should give us a fun run for our money if that’s your choice, though he does need to step up again to be competitive in this far stronger company.
4.50pm Grand Annual Challenge Cup
Just the two races left for Cheltenham this year and I cannot pretend I like either of them – they have not been historically kind to my wallet I am sorry to say. Looking at the stats for some kind of a clue and I note Paul Nicholls has won two of the last four renewals and I am hoping he can make that three from five with Greaneteen who goes from strength to strength and is a joy to watch over his fences. We can expect a few “ooohs” and “aaahs” as he jumps round and even a heart in mouth moment perhaps, but he clearly loves his job, and after wins at Ascot Musselburgh and Fakenham it will be fascinating to see how he handles Cheltenham here. If he brings his A game he probably wins, but if not then I do think Two Taffs is an alternative option. Lightly raced recently, he may well be coming back to his peak in which case a place is on the cards, leaving Eclair De Beaufeu as my third against the field and only Irish suggestion here.
5.30pm Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey’s Handicap Hurdle
No jockey has won this contest twice which isn’t a good rune for Jonjo O’Neill Jnr on board predicted favourite Front View after he won this last year on Early Doors, but then again, statistics are there to be broken. With the Irish dominating the betting once again here (seven of the first eight in the betting are trained over the Irish Sea), Front View does look to be their number one pick regardless, but if I do have a bet (with my arm behind my back), then it will be onPileonwho looks to have got in under the radar from a mark of 138. Trainer Philip Hobbs has moved quickly to book leading jockey Ben Jones for the lightly raced Yeats gelding which suggests he has an excellent chance, and at 8/1 the six-year-old will hopefully prove close to impossible to keep out of the frame.
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