No point in starting a New Year with a fib and last week saw me scurrying for cover with the need to hide my face – what could go wrong last week did go wrong and winners were, to put it mildly, hard to come by – though looking through others work it wasn’t only me, we certainly saw plenty of surprises with short-priced favourites having a bit of an off weekend.
This week it is all a bit quiet when it comes to the better racing, so we will focus our attentions on a reduced number, but with all roads leading to Cheltenham (covid willing, of course), we did see some contenders taking a dramatic shift in the ante post markets after last week so we will start with a look at them to see if any of them really lived up to all the hype?
Starting with the Champion Hurdle and am I the only one who fell off his chair when Nicky Henderson’s Epatante was turned over at odds of 1/5 – ouch. I may be talking through my wallet (I am holding an antepost voucher about the mare at 5/1), but she stated with a laboured jump at the first and despite warming to her task mid race, never looked happy and added more errors closer to home. There are unfounded rumours that all is not 100% at Seven Barrows which may well explain her lacklustre showing, and I won’t be writing her off just yet, though this was a disappointing effort. Hats off to Adam Wedge who rode a blinder on Silver Streak dictating a pace that suited his mount early before slowing it down and then quickening away again when needed, but Cheltenham is over three months away and I will be surprised if he finishes in front of her at Prestbury Park if all is well again at the Henderson yard come the spring.
From one sublime jockey performance to another as Bryony Frost made fools of all her rivals on board Frodon by leading them a merry dance before slowing them all down while she took a breather and then running away again. I am still to be convinced three miles plus is his best trip (despite three wins from eight attempts), and three miles at Kempton is very different to three and a quarter at Cheltenham with the stamina sapping uphill finish, but he is only a nine-year-old as of today and wasn’t stopping on Boxing Day making the 16/1 still on offer for Cheltenham sorely tempting just in case.
Next up, what did we all make of the long awaited return of Altior? He certainly wasn’t the force of old when runner-up to Nube Negra in the Desert Orchid Chase but we mustn’t forget that was hist first start in close to eleven months and with other targets ahead rest assured he will not have been overworked beforehand. With the run needed and the stable not firing on all cylinders as mentioned earlier, I won’t be writing him off either, though Nicky did mention the Ryanair as a possibility as well as the Champion Chase and I will be holding fire on any possible bets until after we get a better idea of his likeliest target.
Naturally, the Irish plan on having a major say in all the Championship events come March, though be warned, some bookmakers are refusing to refund stakes if Covid rules forbid the Irish runners from travelling which I see as outrageous – there is a huge difference between not running (your risk), and not being allowed to run, so do please check your bookmaker’s terms and conditions before considering ante post bets on any Irish challengers. In many eyes Chacun Pour Soi put up the most impressive performance when taking the Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase at Leopardstown by an easy six and a half lengths from Notebook. He was in front plenty soon enough in my opinion and may even have been idling in front but a best priced 6/4 now for the Queen Mother Champion Chase looks plenty skinny to me. His jumping is not as clean as I would like on occasion and I don’t think he has achieved any more than Politologue so far this season suggesting the Nicholls beast remains the better value, while we are all hooping the going will be a lot better in March than the yielding surface he raced on here. Nothing could go with him when he was sent for home which is the sign of a decent horse and those who took bigger prices earlier are clearly sitting pretty, but if you missed the boat as I did, you may well be better off waiting for race day when surely he can’t be much shorter, but with no risk of losing your stake should anything happen in the meantime.
Next on the Irish list we have A Plus Tard who beat a very strong field to take the Savills Chase by half a length in a first-time tongue tie and at the age of seven, he has every right to have even more to offer over the next few years. I would love to know what price he traded at on the exchanges as he came from a way back to overhaul Kemboy and Melon close home to win by half a length, but this was on pretty soft going in a race run in a tome over 43 seconds slower than standard. Now as short as 8/1 in places for the Gold Cup that looks short enough to me with the bare bones of the form suggesting he has a bit to find with Al Boum Photo for starters, though if the spring rains come, he will be running on up the Cheltenham hill late on and could at the very least add to an exciting contest.
Sharjah ran his best race yet last March when he came home a three length second to Epatante in the Champion Hurdle, and despite a couple of uninspiring efforts on the flat over the summer, he bounced back to form with a third win in the Matheson Hurdle at a very rewarding price of 11/2. He does look as if he has a bit of an attitude about him and needed to be kept up to his work once he got to the leaders, yet he could be seen running all over the opposition from some way out and got the job done as needed. The longer they hold on to him the better he looks in a race and he seems assured of plenty of cover in the Champion Hurdle 2021, yet I still wonder whether he really gives his all when let down and sent to win his races. He travelled just as well last year but still couldn’t get to Epatante when asked though with that rival beaten recently (see above), I wouldn’t blame anyone for thinking seriously about an each way bet at a best priced 8/1 with no reason to think he can’t at least hit the places once again.
Lastly for our Cheltenham sighters list we have Concertista who is now vying for favouritism with Honeysuckle for the Mares’ Hurdle next March. She did win a Grade Three at Leopardstown by six and a half lengths from Minella Melody but she has the build of a chaser in my eyes and isn’t as slick at her hurdles as those at the top of the tree. She should run well regardless but isn’t in the same class as Honeysuckle in my view who should win this for the second year in a row with her alternative engagement of the Champion Hurdle the only reason I have been hesitant about stepping in for an ante post slip at odds of a giveaway 3/1.
Saturday Racing:
12.40pm Sandown
Just the six runners but what can you do with so few races to pick from? Paul Nicholls has won two of the last four runnings including last season with Silver Forever and his 2020 representative is Stormy Ireland, who is the best of these at the weights by some margin according to official ratings. Formerly in the care of Willie Mullins, she has won six of her eighteen starts over hurdles including over this sort of trip at Leopardstown in December 2019, but is yet to score after three starts over shorter for her new handler. Last time out she faded badly in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham to be beaten 24 lengths at the line but sees her up in trip and against her own sex, which should make life easier. Her price of 5/4 looks skinny but on her best form she still wins this, with Robin Gold the intriguing alternative stepping up in class and down in trip after numerous wins in lesser company for trainer Dan Skelton.
2.25pm Sandown
I never rely on stats alone, but they do tell an interesting story here with the last ten runnings seeing every winner a single figure price including five successful favourites. The Tizzards have won three of the last four renewals but sadly aren’t represented here, though using the stats about odds added to five and six year olds winning all bar one in the last decade and we were only left with three contenders – Metier, Galice Macalo, and Adrimel (late non-runner). Both arrive in good form with Metier unbeaten after two races over hurdles, and Galice Macalo a good second to Benson here on heavy ground last month. As it seems so hard to make my mind up from the pair, I will go with the higher rated Metier who may have a bit more room for improvement after just a couple of starts over obstacles though we should get the forecast between the pair.
Sunday Racing:
1.53pm Plumpton
Every possibility of an eight runner line-up here for a change and although I doubt we see any of these at a championship meeting such as Cheltenham Aintree or Punchestown, it still looks competitive enough to me. Annual Invictus seems likely to head the market after winning his last two starts at Lingfield and then here over two miles, but the extended trip today is an unknown quantity, and he has been known to pull a bit too hard, making stamina conservation more of an issue. That said, he is a half-brother to Blunder Us and Fort Worth Texas, suggesting he really ought to get home without an issue and despite having to give weight away all round, he still seems the likeliest winner. Stable companion Albert Hucklebuck is worth a second look with the booking of Richard Johnson an eye catcher on the horse’s first start over hurdles after a promising bumper second, while local trainer Gary Moore rarely leaves this track without a winner and is represented by the consistent Dorking Lad who cannot be ignored. Lastly, do keep an eye on Norley for Oliver Sherwood in the early markets. He was sent off joint favourite last time at Fontwell before running a stinker, but he has had a wind operation since, and they clearly think he is up to winning a little race at one of the southern tracks.
2.25pm Plumpton
A race I had to mention with twelve declared for the Sussex National over three and a half miles plus, and normally, a race that attracts a decent crowd. Stats attack time being a dreaded handicap (not my favourite races), and the first thing to note is that no horse aged over ten has won in the last eighteen renewals (my database). Three of the twelve fails to pass that test, while two more disappear when you consider we have only seen the one winner priced bigger than 12/1 (though I am having to work from the tissue). To my amazement, not one of the past winners had scored over the trip before, and removing distance winners leaves me with just the six left, not perfect yet but down to half the field. Twenty-two starters who pulled up on their previous start have come here without a single success and that removes another two and a short list of Defi Des Carres, Salty Boy, Bevevolentdictator, and Special Acceptance. Salty Boy is the only one of the four who has won a race off a higher handicap mark and was sorely tempting but in the end, I have come down on the side of Defi Des Carres, (though I will also do all four in forecasts and tricasts to pennies for a laugh, just in case). A multiple winner over fences and hurdles in his native France, he was only beaten a short head over further on his first start for Charlie Mann at Cheltenham on the cross country course and seems sure to improve for his first start since June. All ground seems to come alike to the eight-year-old which has to be a positive, and if he handles the track then he looks to have as good a chance as any here.
2.50pm Fairyhouse
Just the one Irish race to look at this week but it’s an interesting one with a two mile five furlong chase restricted to mares. Our old friend Cabaret Queen runs here for Willie Mullins but she may be better over further these days and has ten lengths to find with likely favourite Shattered Love on only three pounds better terms for her last start at Clonmel. Common sense suggests that won’t happen barring errors, but with the Elliott yard under a slight cloud by their lofty standards, I can’t really see why the ten-year-old is such a short price? She can be forgiven has last start when soundly thrashed over hurdles at Navan where she seemed to fail to see out the three miles, but I still prefer the overall profile of Salsaretta. Willie Mullins has his horses in peak form as witnessed last weekend and if we ignore the first fence fall at Punchestown last time out, the selection has a very progressive profile. A decent hurdler, she is already going on to greater heights over the larger obstacles with wins at Punchestown (twice), Thurles, and Limerick, for a four from five record prior to her error, and as things stand, she seems the one to be on to me.
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Sean’s Suggestions:
Abrag 12.35pm Lingfield Saturday
Not one mentioned above this week, but I did make a note of Andrew Balding’s Abrag who was slowly away on his racecourse debut and as green as grass before running on in to fourth at Kempton under a considerate ride by David Probert. He seems sure to improve considerably for that experience plus an added furlong this afternoon and if I had a charity bet to place, he would be the one I want to be on ahead of the 12.35pm at Lingfield Saturday afternoon
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