ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
Sadly, there is only one place to start this weekend, and it has to be the disqualification of Alphonse Le Grande from last Saturday’s Cesarewich – and the turmoil and ill feeling it has created from top to bottom in the racing industry. I received an e-mail within minutes of them flashing past the post suggesting the bookmakers should pay out on both winners because” they can afford it” – but supermarkets can afford to sell a lettuce for 10p, and oil companies could afford to sell petrol for a lot less – but they don’t and as things stand, no-one is able to make them. I suspect had the runner-up been another 33/1 shot they may well have paid put to look good – but it wasn’t, it was the very well backed 7/1 chance Manxman which may well have put the off!
I then receive a call from Nick Luck on Sunday (I was half-asleep and suffering man-flu so not the best interview I have ever done to be honest) and I am awaiting social media outrage, but the cold hard facts are simple enough – as things stand the rules of racing cover this exactly as it has panned out – and basically sod the punters. We as in the HBF (Simon Rowlands’ idea, not mine) have suggested the possibility of remote stewarding akin to VAR in recent years to no affect, with the complications a nightmare for anyone to deal with at the track. After the race some were claiming one or more of the 10 strikes didn’t touch the horse so he would keep the race – as it turns out, that is not the case – though connections can still appeal (and stop press – they have).
In my opinion, the year is 2024 (Yes, I had to look that up) and technology really ought to be used to find a quicker and cleaner result at least by the end of the racing day (hold all bets until then) or even no pay puts on first past the post until any enquiry is over, however long that may take – but what is certain is that it isn’t acceptable to leave things as they are – I didn’t back the “new” winner at 7/1 but if I had, I would be as gutted as everyone who did.
While we are talking about enquiries etc I have to feel for Shark Hanlon who as things stand has had his career brought to an abrupt end by the Irish authorities. Now I do not for a moment condone or even forgive him transporting a dead horse in an open wagon, but from what I have read there is proof that the horse was covered up and not visible to the public, but the cover blew off. Stupidity yes, naivety, probably, but callousness maybe not, so where would you see the punishment for such a crime? A 500 Euro fine, maybe a 1000 one – me too – but no, a 10-month suspension of his training license, which seems more than a little harsh. With no income while he has no runners that would potentially be the last we hear of the popular maverick, but he did appeal on Monday, and we will know the result within two weeks. I am hoping that the powers that be will see sense and perhaps give him a suspended sentence, but why it takes two weeks to make a decision is beyond my little brain, leaving the sword of Damocles hanging over the trainer for another fortnight.
Lastly (no good news this week I’m afraid) we have the potential that the current Labour government will hit the gambling industry with some increased taxes adding up to a billion quid or so. Now I have been involved at the highest level in trying to talk to people in government to ensure they understand the difference between skills-based betting like horse racing and the dreaded slots (which is who I feel they are really after), but even more importantly, they need to protect racing if they can. We all know that whatever added costs are put on bookmakers will end up being paid by the punter, but we are wary that it will not go straight on the slots players (as I feel it should) and will see a reduction in bookmaker sponsorship and a demand to renegotiate media rights with the racecourses - please Mr Starmer make sure that does not happen, it’s the slots and casinos that need to pay, not our sport.
Fancy a free podcast – oh go on then…..https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2024/10/18/racing-needs-var-sharks-and-champions-day/
Saturday Racing
Ascot 1.20pm
Champions Day from Ascot left me with very little choice of where we look this Saturday, though I am old enough to think it was better at Newmarket and should have stayed at headquarters for the long-term. With plenty of races to look through, I note that at the early declaration stage, the first three home last year are all set to do battle once more. Sadly for all, the ground doesn’t look like it will be good to soft by race time with soft (holding) ground predicted, and that makes life a whole lot of fun for us journalists. Trawlerman won this last year and arrives lightly raced in 2024 after just the two starts, a third in Dubai and a second in the Ascot Gold Cup and there is a school of thought that he may put his freshness to good use here. That said, if it remains soft, he has never even encountered it (let alone won on it) and I am happy enough to stick with Kyprios – what a horse! Six runs this season have seen six wins, the last four in Group Ones with a two-length victory in the Prix Du Cadran less than two weeks ago. If he has recovered from that then he can make it win number seven for 2024 and etch his name in racing history once more.
Ascot 1.55pm
An interesting sprint where I can see little historical draw bias, with winners from the one stall to the 17 stall in the last 15 years. Only three have even tried from the 18 stall but I am hoping that won’t stop Kinross this afternoon where he looks to have many things in his favour. The winner of 10 races and close to £2 million in prize money with two of those at Group One level, he handles any going but is thought to be at his best on soft which he may well get here, and as he stays a seventh furlong (nine wins over that trip), he won’t be running out of steam late on however testing the going may be. Second in the Prix de la Foret at Longchamps last time out, he is currently trading around the 6/1 mark and that makes him an each way play to me. Montassib ran a career best when winning the Betfair Sprint at Haydock at odds of 25/1 in September and he also handles any cut in the going, but as things stands, I am more than happy with my suggestion.
Ascot 2.35pm
Not a race I like at all with Aidan O’Brien’s Content the highest rated runner according to the handicapper despite a tenth of 11 in the Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp when she was last in action. She was second in the Irish Oaks before winning the Yorkshire Oaks and is the pick of Ryan Moore back up at a mile and a half and looks a serious contender. Kalpana heads the betting for Andrew Balding after wide margin wins at Hamilton and Kempton, but this represents a big step up in class for the daughter of Study Of Man, and I may be the only one who cannot understand why she heads the market. Those looking for an option at a bigger price could do a lot worse than Aidan O’Brien’s supposed second string Grateful – she stays this trip and further, won last time out – and Christophe Soumillon won on her and is not a bad substitute for Ryan Moore in the saddle.
Ascot 3.15pm
Charyn has had an amazing season so far with four wins and two second places including victory in the Queen Anne Stakes here at the Royal meeting and at Deauville in the Jaques le Marois, both Group Ones, with a second to Tribalist at Longchamp in the Prix du Moulin last time out. I can see why he heads the betting again here, but he has to give 6lb to Tamfana and that looks quite a big ask. An unlucky length fourth in our 1000 Guineas in May, she was even closer when third in the Prix de Diane at Chantilly over a mile and a quarter, fourth in the Grand Prix de Paris when trying a mile and a half, before dropping back to a mile for her last two starts to win the Group Three Atalanta Stakes at Sandown followed by the Group One Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket where she saw off Inspiral by a couple of lengths. She is clearly a class act and at 5/1 an each way price to boot and that is exactly how I will be playing her this afternoon with Oisin Murphy in the saddle.
Limerick 3.20pm
Well, I started off running through the statistics for this one but learned absolutely nothing so its back to the formbook for this one. We can say that (guess who) W P “Willie” Mullins has won this on five occasions in the last 10 runnings, including last season with the odds-on High Class Hero, and he is back for more with two runners this season in Ninth Titan (Paul Townend) and Just For Love (Sean O’Keeffe). That suggests the first named is seen as the stable number one on jockey bookings, but she was beaten 14 lengths last time out at Kilbeggan and needs to find plenty of improvement from the step up in trip. It would be reasonable to suggest she is the likeliest winner but equally sensible to assume she will be precious little value come race time, and I will risk a smaller stake each way on World Of Fortunes who is in the care of Liam Kenny. She took a bumper on her second outing at Wexford before being outgunned at Cheltenham in November, but she has been a different kettle of fish over hurdles with a maiden hurdle win at Wexford over three miles despite some sketchy jumping, and again at Listowel, this time over two and a half miles when sent clear on the run-in. This is better company I admit, but we know she stays this trip and more unlike the majority here, and being housed in a less fashionable yard, we may even get a half decent price.
Ascot 3.55pm
When I started to look at the race of the day (the Champion Stakes over a mile and a quarter) Economics was as short as 5/4 with French raider Calandagan was 7/4 or thereabouts but they have flip-flopped at the head of the market which has rained on my fireworks (and that’s the polite version) – who knows who will be the jolly come race time? Economics is (or was?) the new talking horse for this season having won all four starts this season with a neck won over Auguste Rodin last time out in the Irish equivalent. He is decent without any doubt, and jockey Tom Marquand reckons he is the best he has ever ridden, but my question is this – who is the better horse, Auguste Rodin or City Of Troy. Personally, and even without the hype, I think City Of Troy is the better, and considerably so. Therefore, if Economics beats Auguste Rodin by a neck, and Calandagan can get to within a length of City Of Troy, I think the gelded son of Gleneagles has the better form. Add in that many felt he was unlucky at York, posting some exceptional times in the closing furlongs (no I don’t think he would have won but he could have been closer), and he was always going to be my pick regardless. I am very wary about the drift in the price of the Haggas runner, be that for ground or other reasons, though I also wish Marie Velon the best of luck on each way prospect Iresine who could yet be a danger to all.
Sean’s Suggestion:
A small each way double on Content 2.35pm Ascot and Tamfana 3.15pm Ascot
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