We could mention any number of things to start this weeks article – but with Champions Day at Ascot to look at it seems sensible to let the horses do all the talking for a change. As I am feeling particularly generous (very unlike me), I have decided to try and profile each and every race using 25 years of statistics as we seach for some winners – though as this meeting was moved from Newmarket to Ascot in 2011 only time will tell how the figures hold up!
Saturday
Ascot 1.25pm Qipco British Champions Long Distance cup
After the retirement of Stradivarius this race has lost a little of its’ gloss but it is a competitive affair nonetheless which is no great shock with £283,555 up for grabs to the winner all the way down to £6,750 for whoever comes home sixth – nice work if you can get it. I won’t go in one horse at a time because that will fill too many pages but suffice to say I am looking at any stat that has a 75% or better success rate to it. That leaves us with 12/1 or shorter (92%), first seven last time out (92%), aged eight or younger (92%), first six on the betting (92%), raced on the last 60 days (80%). Unsurprisingly at this level we only lose three but it’s a starting point. AS we all know trainer Alan King has a 100% record in this race having sent current joint-favourite Trueshan to victory in both 2020 and 2021 and with the rains falling just in time he looks the likeliest winner again here. Eldar Eldarov looks a serious rival in receipt of 9lb from the suggestion but the St `leger wonner has his first try at two miles today and common sense suggests we stick to the one guaranteed to stay this far and further.
Ascot 2.00pm
Charlie Appleby’s Creative Force is back for seconds after winning this last season and as he is officially a better horse as a four-year-old, he deserves his place at the head of the early markets. Stats time once again and I note that no horse drawn higher than 14 has come home in front in the last 25 renewals (100%), no winners were older than six (100%), 23 finished in the first five last time out (92%), 23 who had an official mark were rated 107 or above (92%), 23 were in the first nine in the betting (92%), and 22 had raced in the last 60 days (88). From a field of 178 declared, applying those stats we lose 13 of the field including the jolly (not raced in the last 60 days), and all of a sudden we are looking elsewhere. Sadly, the class in this field is so deep that things still aren’t as clear as us punters would prefer, but decisions still have to be made, and I have come down on the side of Kinross who looks an each way option. He stays an added furlong, handles the cut in the ground, arrives after winning on Arc day in Paris, and may well get the fast run race he will need to be produced late by regular jockey Frankie Dettori – no good thing, but a sensible bet if there is such a thing.
Ascot 2.40pm
I will run through the figures to see if they change my mind, but I think I have already made my mind up after my first glance at the final declared field. None of the last 25 winners were priced bigger than 20/1 (100%), 24 were aged four or younger, only one winner carried more than nine stone three (96%), 23 came from the front six in the market, and 22 came home in the first seven last time out (88%). Using those stats we can (in theory of course) remove an amazing 11 of the 14 runners leaving us with a choice between Emily Upjohn, Eternal Pearl, and Mimikyu, and two of those are trained by the Gosdens. The yard have won this twice and placed on a further three occasions (from 22 attempts), and if you are willing to forgive Emily Upjohn a way below par effort when last at Ascot against the colts, her unlucky Oaks second looks as good as any form on offer, and a first-time hood may see her in a far better light.
Ascot 3.20pm
The betting suggests this is all over bar the shouting and Inspiral will win with her head in her chest – but we should see if the stats are also in her favour before we draw any conclusions. All of the last 25 to succeed were aged three or four (100%), all were officially rated 113 or higher (100%), 23 came home in the first five on their previous outing (92%), 22 came from the first five in the betting on the day (88%), and 21 were priced at 12/1 or shorter (84%). If those stats continue then 6 drop by the wayside and we are left with Inspiral, Modern Games, and Jadoomi. The last named steps up in class to Group One for the first time this season which is a slight concern, and I feel it will fall to one of the other two. I am honestly not sure which, but French 2000 Guineas winner Modern Games seems the better value on the softer surface and will do for me today – though to buttons in a race that could go either way.
Ascot 4.00pm
On paper at least this isn’t much of a race when you note that the winner will collect close to three-quarters of a million pounds, but it is a chance for us all to bid farewell to the great Baeed, who will hope to finish his career unbeaten after 11 races, with six of his victors to date at the highest level. The fact that connections even considered the Arc suggests they have no doubt over his stamina over this mile and a quarter after his Juddmonte International romp over the same trip, but that was a single race, and the rest of the field seem more likely to try to test his stamina today. He will be sent off long odds-on, and rightly so, and I do not intend to insult his legacy by using stats to look for an alternative. 2021 Derby winner Adayar is his obvious rival but he has had his issues with just the one (winning) run this season, though that does leave him fresher than most if this turns in to a stamina test, but even my fertile imagination cannon envisage hm having the speed to bother Baeed, with stamina the only thing that can stop the Haggas horse from heading off to the paddocks with a faultless record.
Ascot 4.40pm
I have never really worked out why they end Champions Day with a handicap but they do, and we deal with whatever is put in front of us. The last hour of my life has been wasted going through all the stats which amusingly rule out every single runner here – so back to the drawing board for me. David O’Meara does well here with two winners and another two places and he has chances with a host of runners, but I am going to give Sir Michael Stoute’s Astro King one last chance. Ryan Moore rides the five-year-old once again here and I am hoping that a first-time visor does the trick. He was last seen running a stinker in Listed company but ought to find this a fraction easier, though to be honest this is a race where I will crack open a beer and not bother having a bet.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Kinross each way 2.00pm Ascot
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