With a 10/1 winner (advised at 12/1) on day one of York we can hopefully remain in profit all the way to the end (no promises), but I still have two days to deal with to give it all back to those dreaded bookmakers – or not hopefully.
York Friday
Lonsdale Cup Stakes 2.15pm
It may be a Group Two, but I am anything but inspired by this line up with the one possible exception, though if the rains keep falling it could get more competitive by the minute. Nayef Road is clearly the best of them in my view based on his length second to Stradivarius in the Goodwood Cup and having finished ten lengths behind the same rival at Royal Ascot, you could say he deserves a change of luck and a chunk of winning prize money. The fact that he isn’t favourite did surprise me somewhat, but that honour goes to Enbihaar who gets three pounds from my suggestion as a mare. She did win easily at Goodwood over shorter in the Lillie Langtry Stakes and is owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum who is having his best year for decades, but she still needs to find a little more in this company and may yet have to settle for the runner up berth.
Gimcrack Stakes 2.45pm
It is a Group race so I will mention it, but I would be happier picking the bones out of a handicaps with so many unknown quantities and potential improvers in the field that we are basically guessing the best of them at this fledgling stage of their careers. With five unbeaten entries, something has to give somewhere with the softer ground a new experience for some and another problem to throw into the mix. Yazaman has closed some decent efforts and was on the short list and could sneak into a place, while Minzaal looked the part on his second outing when running away with a minor event at Salisbury and looks a massive player once again today. My selection will need a new personal best to get past the Owen Burrows runner but if Mystery Smiles can improve again then he looks overpriced to me at 9/1 or so. Sent off odds on for his Windsor debut he took that with the minimum of fuss and was almost as eye-catching in a Class Two at Chester when hard held to score by a comfortable three-quarters of a length. Value for far more if needed he saw off the odds-on jolly there with the minimum of fuss and at an each way price, surprisingly, that is exactly how I will be playing him here.
Nunthorpe Stakes 3.15pm
Hats off to all the owners (seven of them) who have allowed their charges to take on the wondrous Battaash here despite what looks like an impossible task. I will not be betting here for obvious reasons and because at this stage I cannot judge the favourite’s demeanour pre-race, which seems the only thing that could stop success. The now six-year-old has speed to burn and looks even better this season with a pair of odds on two and a quarter length successes at Royal Ascot (in the King’s Stand) and Goodwood (in the Qatar Stakes), both in scintillating times, making him impossible to oppose however hard I may try. Naturally, there are dangers if he has an off day, with Art Power the most interesting after the three-year-old landed our bets at Royal Ascot in the Holyroodhouse Handicap, and followed that up in Ireland in the Group Three Lacken Stakes. He is a very decent horse and may even be the pretender to the throne in the long term, but on what we have seen so far he still has plenty to find at the very highest level though I would have no issue in suggesting him for the forecast for those who like that sort of thing.
Saturday
Strensall Stakes 1.50pm
It worries me when I think I have the winner only to see it trading at 7/1 or so but that is the case here and as we all know by now, you should never change your mind. Miss O Connor has a bit to find on official ratings but arrived at Ascot an unbeaten mare after successes at Gowran Park, Nottingham, Haydock, and Saint-Cloud, but she lost that record first time out this season at Ascot when a well-beaten fifth at Ascot in the Valiant Stakes. That was her first start since last October and to be frank she looked as if she needed it, and after trying to make all she wasn’t given a hard time once her chance had gone. With that run under her belt and crucially, on a far softer surface which clearly suits (if its Good ground or faster I won’t be backing her), she can show us that form was all wrong and hopefully come home in front for the Haggas yard, and with Tom Marquand in the saddle once again.
City Of York Stakes 3.00pm
Although I quite like the make up of this race there is still that little nagging doubt at the back of my mind that suggests there may yet be a major upset and I won’t be writing off Brando just yet who could still be the surprise package even at the age of eight. That said he is becoming hard to win with (seven runs since June 2019) but he goers well here at York historically and is worthy of consideration at odds of 33/1 or thereabouts. One Master somehow got up despite all sorts of trouble in running at Goodwood and handles any cut in the ground which may just about give him the edge this afternoon. A Group One winner not once but twice over this trip at Longchamp he looks back to that sort of form again now, and if that is the case, he can win this with a clear run. Threat is another of interest as the only three-year-old in the contest and may be better over this seven furlong trip having tried six last time out, and he should find this a lot easier than when taking on Palace Pier at Royal Ascot in June, but his best efforts are all on quicker ground, and for that reason alone I will be sticking to the favourite.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Mystery Smiles each way 2.45pm York Friday
Miss O Connor each way 1.50pm York Saturday
One Master 3.00pm York Saturday
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