It’s been a very busy week this week with sad good and mixed news in equal quantities and more than enough material to fill a book let alone my weekly article.
The passing of A P Indy started the week off on a sour note and although I have to add that the majority of his major successes were at a time when we all knew precious little about the racing Stateside, he is held in such high reverence by those who know that he clearly was something out of the ordinary, with an outstanding racecourse record almost certainly bettered at stud, but as a son of Seattle Slew out of a Secretariat mare, he was born with some pretty good genes to pass on to future generations.
Looking to the future instead of the past, and Wednesday saw the annual “meet the handicappers” shindig at Cheltenham racecourse where a pleasantly surprising number of trainers turned up to give us their views on their prospects for the four days that make up the Cheltenham Festival. Oli Bell hosted on our behalf but (in my worthless opinion) was, on occasion, a little too leading with his questions (is that in vogue or something ,they all seem to be at it lately), so I have been particularly picky with those horses I have decided to pass on to you, with one a trainer perhaps the easiest way forward.
Philip Hobbs – Defi Du Seuil is one of his more obvious chances but even his trainer suggested the Ryanair would have been easier than the Champion Chase and we may be better off looking elsewhere. Jatiluwih should go well in the Pertemps Final and is worthy of each-way consideration, but Deise Aba came over as the one he liked the look of most, and he will be carrying my money in the Kim Muir on the Thursday at the current odds of 12/1.
Nigel Twiston-Davies - As positive as always, Nigel feels Cogry can go well in his chosen engagement, while Ballyandy has form that makes him overpriced in the Champion Hurdle, which looks more open by the day. Despite that, Bristol De Mai is the one he wants to win with more than any, and he seems sure to go well in the Gold Cup, especially if the going remains on the softer side. As his trainer said, "Bristol de Mai is in good shape ahead of the Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup. I am amazed that Santini is favourite for the Gold Cup and we are 33/1. We were giving Santini 2lb in the Cotswold Chase and looked all over the winner at the bottom of the hill, but then we slipped on landing and that cost us the race. I think we have a great chance”.
Olly Murphy – an up and coming young trainer but one look at the prices of his entries suggests he has the bookies running scared. Brewin’upastorm was described as his best chance heading into the Arkle Chase and who am I to argue, though he also seemed pretty keen on Skandiburg in the Pertemps Final, with the six-year-old mapped out for this specific race for six months or more ahead of race day.
Although Jonjo O’Neill looked bubbly and well (which is always a good thing to see), he seemed less than confident and is a trainer I can pass by betting wise for now, a remark that also applies to Neil Mulholland, though both may well have been keeping their cards close to their chests, of course.
With Alan King equally non plussed about his chances with the exception of a big (placed?) run from Sceau Royale in the Champion Chase, we moved on to Warren Greatrex who has plenty of ammunition headed by each way chance Emitom in the Stayers Hurdle. A big run is on the cards, but I got the feeling that both Le Bague Au Roi (drops in to handicap company in either the Ultima or the Brown Advisory) or Bob Mahler have better chances. Warren said “Bob Mahler will go for the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase. He won the Edinburgh National at Musselburgh last time and is improving all the time. We won this race a few years ago with Missed Approach and he would have the same sort of profile”, but more importantly, his trainer seemed fairly keen on his chances.
Last but not least we had a chat with Kim Bailey, who has a strong team at Cheltenham, saying “I have certainly got my best team coming here for a long time. I have five horses and I would not swap any of them. They are all in good form, they all look well, and they have been trained for their races, so fingers crossed they all get here in one piece.” Imperial Aura came close to being the one I went for and will run well in the Northern Trust Company Novices’ Handicap Chase, but my vote goes to Vinndication who was the first horse Kim chose to mention, adding “Vinndication runs in the Ultima Handicap Chase. He worked this morning and I was delighted with him. He has only run once this season, which won't do him any harm as he has not been chuntering around on heavy ground all winter. He has won seven out of nine. He got beat at Sandown last season and we weren't hugely happy, but Defi Du Seuil and Lostintranslation were the two horses that beat him, so in hindsight it was a very good race”, which makes perfectly good sense to me and has already seen me open the wallet.
As if all that wasn’t enough to make the brain frazzled, on Thursday morning we went to see Paul Nicholls to discuss his team for Cheltenham. Massive thanks to Paul for his hospitality as we started with a look around the whole yard (and the chance to pat a few horses up close), before regrouping at the front to listen intently and snap off a few photos to boot.
With a huge string of some of the best horses in the Country we were limited to realistic numbers and I leave it up to you to decide if those he paraded are in fact his best chances, but we certainly saw some equine superstars. Starting at the very top of the tree and the master of Ditcheat seemed delighted with the well-being of Gold Cup hope Clan Des Obeaux. He looked a picture to my eyes and worked well with Frodon at Wincanton according to his handler who also told us “Last year, we went from Kempton to the Denman Chase, which was put back a week, and then to Cheltenham. We are coming in with a different preparation this year because we have worked out that he is best when fresh. His best runs have been from Haydock to Kempton last season and then this season from Down Royal to Kempton. He is only eight and is bound to have improved.” "He is very effective when he is very fit and very fresh - I think he is lethal on those terms. I think he is my best chance of the week." Fair to say he seems pretty keen on his chances and at 8/1 I won’t be putting anyone off, though that is three “tips” from trainers already in the last seven days and that’s before I visit Colin Tizzard on Monday!
Politologue and Diamond Dollars were brought out next and both heads off for the Champion Chase which may yet be the race of the meeting. Paul pointed out that Politologue was giving Defi Du Seuil weight at Cheltenham in November and that he goes best fresh (hence his break), and in his words, “He has had a great preparation and it does not matter how much it keeps raining because that will suit him. I think at 33/1 he is a lively outsider in the Champion Chase. He was not beaten far last year and basically jumped the last upsides Altior. He comes right at this time of the year and I was very happy with him this morning.”
Solo caught everybody’s eye next, but it has to be added that even his trainer seemed slightly surprised by how easily he won last weekend despite holding him in the highest regard. That win has seen him become the highest rated novice hurdler in the UK (157) which seems an over the top reaction, but as he is unlikely to be going down the handicap route, who cares? Described as “…a big tank of a thing who takes loads of work…” he seems sure to keep on improving and if that is correct, he can win the Triumph Hurdle before moving on to even bigger things over the years ahead with fences the eventual aim.
Sir Psycho also runs in the Triumph and could well give the stable a one two, but others are worthy of a mention in other contests including Greaneteen who is rated 150 which Paul seems to think is at the very least a workable mark. Although he thinks he is good enough to run in the Arkle his mark seems to be swaying connections toward the Grand Annual instead where he looks to have every chance.
Finally, Thyme White heads off to the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle and is yet another with a live chance of bringing home the bacon. Paul told us "He has a rating of 133 and I think he can do something off that mark. He is progressing and the Boodles is a race we have done well in. I would think this lad will have a leading chance. He is a proper horse who will make a lovely chaser one day.”, and that concludes my stable tours – for now.
On to the racing this weekend (stay with me), and the most valuable contest is in Saudi Arabia, though health and travel issues mean I am not quite as disappointed to be sat at home as I was this time last week. The big one is worth a ridiculous £7.5 million to the winner, and although I hope for a big run from Magic Wand (Aidan O’Brien) and Benbatl (Saeed Bin Suroor), they look to have it all to do to get past Maximum Security. An easy winner of the Cigar Mile at Aqueduct last time out in December he has been seen working well ahead of his latest mission and if he remains in that sort of form, then he will take all the beating here.
In the UK I will be keeping the majority of my powder dry for Cheltenham but may be tempted by a little on The Perfect Crown at Lingfield. A son of Hallowed Crown, he certainly caught the eye with an easy debut win at Chelmsford and although this looks a lot deeper, he can only improve for the experience, and should at least make the frame for trainer Archie Watson.
Sean’s Suggestions:
The Perfect Crown 3.10pm Lingfield Saturday
Maximum Security 5.40pm Riyadh Saturday
PS If you see yourself as a punter or UK racegoer please please please go to
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdcJZO-44vLgejJRn07LhmUPbEPhLLm3D16Thq3Wh70Abk9Vg/viewform and fill out the HBF fixtures survey – we would like your views to move this forward!
Comments