One winner out of two suggestions last week and I will take that any day of the week – though with rain expected to turn some of the going bottomless don’t be too surprised if I fail to match that this weekend! There is plenty to discuss in the World of racing with unhappy owners reducing their strings, and the shock news of a positive drugs test for Champion jockey Oisin Murphy (which he plans to challenge, hopefully successfully, but this is the French authorities we are talking about after all), but perhaps luckily for me I will bypass all of that this week with so much top quality racing to mention at the very least.
Saturday
October Stakes 1.20pm Ascot
As I write the official going is Soft but with the weather on the BHA site suggesting shed loads of rain between now and then I am having to assume it is a lot worse than that! For a Listed race I have to say thank you to all the owners who are supporting this contest as we have a 12 runner field to look through, and the chance of an each way option assuming we only end up with one or two non-runners (fingers crossed). One look at the official ratings here and we can quickly see that we have three questions that we need to answer. Has Daahyeh trained on from two to three, will she handle the going, and is she fit enough to win this after eleven months off the track? We won’t know the answer to one and three until after the race (I wish I had the option to see her in the paddock before writing this, believe me), but as a daughter of Bated Breath there is hope that she will handle cut in the ground and she has won in Group class on Good to Soft. IF she is the horse she was last season then she wins this pulling a cart (her second to Love in the Moyglare Stud Stakes stands out in this line up), but the fact that we are yet to see her this season has to be of some concern, making her an option without a doubt but sadly not the certainty she would appear had we seen her in action at all in 2020.
Rous Stakes 1.55pm Ascot
Five furlongs here in what looks a highly competitive renewal of a race won by Dakota Gold last year, and he is back for more in 2020 where he has to give weight to the vast majority of his rivals. He will be popping out of the 14 stall and may yet find himself on the wrong side of the field with plenty of the more fancied horses drawn far lower, and that may cause him issues if he tries to make the running as he did when third at Doncaster. He has scored numerous times on soft ground which is a major positive, but at 4/1 any value there might have been appears long gone. Maid In India does look very attractively weighted and should find this a lot easier than when fourth in the Flying Five but she is proving hard to win with and I will be having a little each way on Aljady for Robert Cowell who is so adept with his sprinters. His very easy win on soft ground in a Class Two at Sandown two races back caught the eye and although upped in grade here he deserves his chance, and could well run far better than his odds suggest.
Prix de Royalieu 2.15pm Longchamp
Not a race I feel I can ignore but not necessarily one where I have a strong view either. Seven of the twelve currently declared are trained in the UK or Ireland including early favourite Manuela De Vega who was last seen coming home fourth to Love in the Yorkshire Oaks despite looking one paced close home and beaten over nine lengths. Upped a couple of furlongs here she has to have a solid chance, but then again so does the rapidly improving Pista who made it three in a row on only her fourth start in the Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster last month. She has won on soft and amazingly looks as if she has even more to come as she gains experience for Joseph O’Brien, and for me she looks the likeliest winner here with Shane Crosse in the saddle. Miss Yoda looks intriguing at a double figure price for the John Gosden/Frankie Dettori team and should also go well but as things stand, I see no good reason to oppose my selection.
Cumberland Lodge Stakes 2.30pm Ascot
Not a race to bet in perhaps but one worth talking about as the 2019 St Leger winner Logician tries to make up for lost time and follow up his Doncaster return with a win here in a massively truncated season. That win merely proved he still had four legs at odds of 1/12 and over an inadequate ten furlongs, and he should be even happier upped in trip today. Sadly, he seems to have frightened off all the decent opposition and will go off odds on no doubt, though this may well be the softest ground he has ever encountered by race time and if I bet at all it will be a very small forecast. The betting suggests Morando is the one to follow him home, but I will be taking the risk on French import Litigator as he has his first start for Roger Varian. Five starts this season have seen two wins and two places, the latest a handicap success at Clairefontaine, and I just have to wonder what his trainer has seen to suggest he can mix it in this exalted company – or am I just seeing a conspiracy that simply isn’t there?
Sun Chariot Stakes 2.45pm Newmarket
When you see a Godolphin owned daughter of Dark Angel in training with Saeed bin Suroor trading at odds of 50/1 you have to instantly assume this race has plenty of depth! Champers Elysees did us a favour when winning at odds of 9/2 last time out and will go close again here for Johnny Murtagh as will Peaceful for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore, who may have hit the front too early that day and with connections seemingly happy to let her take on her conqueror once again. Both are three year olds and their age group has an excellent recent record here with three of the last four winners, but I will go against the grain with Veracious each way at 8/1 or thereabouts. Trained by Sir Michael Stoute, the daughter of Frankel looked better than ever when winning last time out at Haydock, her first start in ten months following a wind operation, suggesting she will improve again for the run. Oisin Murphy rides which is no bad thing in my book, and as a possible front runner who doesn’t mind a battle, we should at least get a positive run for our money.
Guisborough Stakes 2.50pm Redcar
Off North to Redcar next for the first of two races there and with soft ground already, who knows if it will be soup like by race time. A maximum of seven runners puts me off any each way alternatives and leads me to My Oberon who looks the safest option. Somehow he is rated two pounds lower than Khaloosy who was one place behind him at level weights last time out with no obvious excuses, and as that was on soft ground, we have to be more than just hopeful he will handle conditions. The Haggas yard remain in good sorts which counts in his favour, and although I see it as between that pairing, I am rather hopeful the Varian horse won’t be able to turn the tables today and ours will continue improving as the season draws to a close.
Two Year Old Trophy 3.25pm Redcar
Plenty of money up for grabs here with close to £57,000 to the winner and a useful if not life changing £1350 for finishing sixth, hence the big field. Weights are decided by the median price of the sire’s yearlings which theoretically gives the cheaper purchases a fighting chance, with 6/1 chance Spright the better fancied of the unfashionably bred after wins at York, Chester, and Doncaster from five starts this season. I won’t pretend I have any sort of a feel for a race like this with possible improvement all round from this lightly raced bunch, and the ground an unknown for most of the field, but if I was given a charity bet then a little each way on Shark Two One at 10/1 looks half sensible. Trainer Richard Fahey has won two of the last three runnings of this race so he knows exactly what sort is needed, and as the son of Adaay is getting better all the time with a win last time out at the Curragh, he may come on again for that effort and double up this afternoon.
Prix Daniel Wildenstein 3.25pm Longchamp
See the 1.20pm at Ascot for all comments about returning from injury and long periods off the track, though this time we are talking about The Revenant. Eight wins from eleven starts is a good return for the now five year old and includes a win in this race last season before an excellent second to King Of Change in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Champions Day, possibly his best ever run. Off since that race, his fitness has to be a major worry here and I won’t be having a bet for that very reason, saving my pennies for a little each way on Ziegfeld. His form so far gives him very little chance, but Andre Fabre is nobody’s fool and sends Godolphin’s New Approach colt here and he must have good reason. Lightly raced but with three wins from four starts, he proved impossible to pass at Le Teste De Buch last month despite numerous challengers and all I can say is they will all have to be at their best to get past this battle hardened colt, if he can get to the front as anticipated.
Bengough Stakes 3.40pm Ascot
Cape Byron won this last season for Roger Varian and he is back to repeat the feat and is currently favourite to do so despite an absence from the track of close to the year. Again, I won’t be having a bet because I am quite aware that to remain solvent, I have to use my head and not my heart yet here we are with my old pal The Tin Man, and I am struggling to resist. Now an eight year old with no less than 29 career starts and nine successes he feels like part of the family these days which may well be swaying my opinion. He has scored here on three occasions including two at Group One level so this company should be well within his abilities, but the fact that we haven’t seen him at his best this season has to be a concern and any bets I may have will be reduced accordingly.
Preakness Stakes 10.36pm Pimlico, USA
As someone who loves the International racing scene I ought to at least mention the third leg of a strange triple crown in America this year. Authentic arrives the short priced favourite after his win in the Kentucky Derby for Bob Baffert where he saw off favourite and stable companion Tiz The Law after fighting back when passed. My fear is that he had a tough race that day which may well have taken its toll, and with plenty of early speed on his inside here he could well have to use up far too much energy to get to the lead when he wants to, making 6/5 look far too skinny. Art Collector intrigues arriving here unbeaten for the season after bypassing all the main events to win lesser contests impressively, but he has to do more according to my ratings and I will go out on a limb with Pneumatic who may have the race run to suit. His worst run this season was a fourth to Tiz The Law in the Belmont Stakes in June, but he has won easily since and should get the decent early pace he can travel behind before attempting to pounce late. I admit the trip could be an issue but if he can save ground early unlike some, at 25/1 or bigger I will be having a dollar each way just in case.
Sunday
Arc de Triomphe 3.05pm Longchamp
I am beginning to believe I may be the only person on Earth who doesn’t feel the Arc meeting is all it is cracked up to be despite the stellar fields and huge prize pot. Run close to the end of a long hard season for some and invariably on a softer surface than the majority would prefer, it sits alongside Champions Day for me as a bit of an afterthought for most, with Enable the obvious exception as she has been targeted here long-term, seaching for an historic third triumph. The wonder mare quite rightly sits at the head of the betting now at odds of 5/4 but for me, she hasn’t really looked the same horse this season and could well be vulnerable again as she was when second last year. I genuinely want to be proved wrong, I really do, but her price is surely 60% ability and 40% sentiment, and there could yet be each way value elsewhere. Derby winner Serpentine intrigues having been supplemented late for this at some cost to connections, but he was thrashed on his only run on soft ground at Galway (admittedly on debut) and we are second guessing how he will handle it here. Ryan Moore has presumably chosen Mogul from the O’Brien battalions suggesting he is their best chance, while Japan will be ridden by Yutaka Take, probably the most experienced jockey in the field. Deirdre is an old friend and looks huge at 66/1 if she can get through the ground but at 14/1 Raabihah will do for me. Trainer Jean-Claude Rouget has never made any secret that he thinks she is an Arc horse, and if we forget her second here in the middle of last month when left with far much to do in her trial race, she has a rock solid chance. Track and trip look perfect and she may have more to offer after just the four starts, with my only concern the change of jockey to Maxime Guyon with regular pilot Cristian Demuro on board shorter priced stablemate Sottsass.
Prix de L’Opera 3.50pm Longchamp
Having waited patiently for the final declarations and jockey bookings I am glad it has all been worthwhile with a stellar field and a race I can’t wait to watch – though in person would have been the preferred choice. Three year olds have dominated in recent years with eight of the last ten winners including three on the bounce and they have such a strong hand here that run may well continue. In no particular early order, Alpine Star took the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot and has run two good races since (the latest on heavy behind Palace Pier), Fancy Blue took the French Oaks by a short neck from Alpine Star, meaning it could or should be close between the pair, while Tawkeel arrives here unbeaten after five career starts and had a nice prep run when winning on very soft ground at Deauville a couple of weeks ago. It should fall to one of those three with the narrowest of preferences for Alpine Star for me. Finishing three-quarters of a length behind the unbeaten Palace Pier may yet prove to be the best piece of form on offer here and as that was on heavy ground she just about ticks enough boxes to be the suggestion here, though it looks an even better race than the Arc to me and will take plenty of winning.
Prix de l’Abbaye 4.25pm Longchamp
Sad to see the withdrawal of Battaash due to the prevailing going but no great surprise to be honest and it will be interesting to see if connections put him away for the season or head off to the Breeders Cup or elsewhere. The reality is that his absence has taken the gloss off this Group One sprint though with six of the eleven left in, plenty of the prize money seems sure to come back to the UK or Ireland. Glass Slippers heads the new market after winning for us last time out at The Curragh as she looks to follow up her success here last season, and she will be my particularly unoriginal selection in a race I have precious little interest in.
Prix de la Foret 4.55pm Longchamp
Not a race I would normally get involved, in but my co-conspirator Ron Robinson at Post Racing is a member of the Safe Voyage fan club and as John Quinn’s seven year old is entered here looking for his fourth win of the season, I feel obliged to join in. Currently a 4/1 chance, he has rock solid form on heavy ground which will serve him well this afternoon, though whether he can give two pounds to Earthlight is a different question. Andre Fabre’s Shamardal colt has always been thought of as top class at home but after missing the early classics we didn’t see him until a winning return at Deauville. Fourth to Space Blues at the same track next time that created a thought that he needed longer between races. An easy win in lesser company last time out possibly put that thought to bed, and if he can get back to his best form, then he ought to prove too good for them all here, though 6/4 seems a pretty shoddy price.
Tired of reading – go to our free to listen to podcast here instead https://postracing.co.uk/2020/10/02/ron-and-sean-put-up-big-priced-winners-of-the-big-races-this-weekend-and-get-enable-beaten/
Sean’s Suggestions:
Daahyeh 1.20pm Ascot Saturday
My Oberon 2.50pm Redcar Saturday
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