I try so hard to search out good news for us all each week, but everyone knows racing is not in a great place at the moment, and I have failed once again.
The Racing League has hit the headlines for all the wrong reasons with tickets being almost given away thanks to a luke-warm reception from your average racegoer, if there is such a person. Yarmouth kicked off the 2023 version of events on Thursday evening, but with less than 8,000 attending last year in total, something needs to happen for it it catch on with those who really matter. 400 early entries had dwindled to 76 runners come race day (before late withdrawals) but I am less bothered about that with an average of 10 a race more than enough to see some competitive contests, though racing league chief exec Jeremy Wray (I decent bloke by the way with his heart in the right place) thinks otherwise. He has wheeled out the big guns in the shape of Frankie Dettori and Matt Chapman to push every meeting, but for me the bottom line is simpler than that – we need to promote the evening out to those who rarely if ever go racing, and I haven’t seen enough of a marketing budget to make that happen just yet.
Meanwhile it isn’t just the UK in trouble in case you weren’t aware. In Ireland jockey Gearoid Brouder has been banned for four years (with the possibility three will be suspended if he toes the party line) for testing positive for a metabolite of cocaine at Gowran Park in May. I try not to judge other people too harshly (those in glass houses etc), but it seems reasonable to describe him as “silly” to put it politely, but although I have zero idea of how long cocaine stays in your system, or more importantly how long it affects your judgement, racing cannot give even an inch (centimetre for the youngsters) when it comes to the possibilities of drink or drugs while steering a horse at 40mph.
Staying on the subject of drugs, and where do I start with trainer (well, ex-trainer) Jason Servis. He looks all set for a substantial (not enough in my book) time in prison for doping horses in his care, and although I naturally care about the reputation of our sport, I am far more concerned about the horses themselves. Part of a wide scale enquiry I won’t pretend I understand the science behind the various concoctions, but apparently he worked hand in hand with Jose Navarro who admitted via a wire-tap that he gave XY Jet 50 injections (that’s FIFTY) before he won the Golden Shaheen in Dubai in 2019. If ever organisations like Animal Rising needed a bit of a boost, people like this give them all the ammunition they need, I will not for a second pretend that number doesn’t horrify me or bring a tear to my eye for the poor horses concerned – its barbaric and I can only hope he gets fined a lot more than he ever made from cheating, in the hope it is a deterrent to others.
Continuing down the miserable list and I saw in the Racing Post that UK trainer numbers are down in the last decade by 17% - from 666 to 553 – which don’t see as a problem in itself (survival of the fittest and all that), but it is a barometer of the health of the sport. Economy of scale is clearly one of the issues as the smaller yards just do not have the buying power when it comes to food, bedding, transport etc, but there has also been a move toward certain trainers being overloaded with horses – while others struggle to fill their boxes. In my opinion, for what its worth, loyalty seems to be a thing of the past (smaller trainers used to be able to rely on certain patrons sending all their horses to them but no more), while syndicates, responsible for more and more horses, use a big-name trainer as a selling point – whereas their horse may well get more personal attention at a smaller yard. Add the much spouted issue of low prize money to the equation, a percentage of which is crucial to a yards survival, increases in rates and utility bills, and the difficulty in attracting staff, and it was always going to be a one-way street – but what can be done to arrest the decline? Hopefully people cleverer than me are working away on a solution, but perhaps centralised purchasing so they can buy in bulk would be a start, lobbying the government to allow skilled immigration for the jobs they can’t fill, a marketing campaign pointing out individual attention (with no offence to the bigger yards, how much time can a named trainer give to each of 200 or more horses in his or her care – if they worked a 100 hour week that’s 30 minutes per horse), and if push comes to shove, racing heresy – bring in a maximum number of horses per trainer to give the rest a chance?
Lastly, before we get on with trying to find some winners, I have spotted some worrying signs on Betfair, seen as many as the silver bullet for punters with their much advertised better starting prices than industry SP. That is not always the case, and although I do not have the time or the inclination for a detailed study, don’t forget the commission rate punters have to pay as well as well – al I am suggesting is don’t fall into the trap of assuming they will be better odds, that is anything but guaranteed, especially near or at the head of the market.
Tired of reading – head here for the podcast where I chew the fat with Ron Robinson of Post Racing and Worldofsport fame https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2023/07/28/racing-league-jailed-trainer-the-drop-in-trainer-numbers-plus-7-winners-tomorrow/
On to the racing…
Saturday
1.50pm Ascot
We start the afternoon with the Group Three Princess Margaret Stakes for two-year-old fillies over the six-furlongs where the majority have only had one or two races, meaning they are open to plenty of progression – or not as the case may be. Symbology heads the early betting after her debut success at Yarmouth but the time was nothing inspiring and there may be better value to be found elsewhere, and at a bigger price I will be backing Dazzling Star each way. As green as grass on her debut at Kempton when an easy to back 8/1 shot, but she looked a different animal next time out when winning easily at Newmarket, and this time the money was down as she went off the 11/8 favourite. The Blue Point filly seems to have a heady mix of speed and stamina, and with a clear run I doubt she will be too far away.
2.05pm York
Jumps jockeys riding over five furlongs should be a sight to behold, but whether that makes it any easier to find the winner is a moot point. I need to mention that the big unknow here is the ability of these lightly framed sprinters to carry the bigger weights needed for these heavier jockeys (as an example, early top-weight Night On Earth (now not running) has never carried more than 10 stone 4 in a 43 race career, yet he would have shouldered 11 stone 13 this afternoon), and that leads me towards Soul Seeker, the winner in 2021 and with some form on a softer surface including a second on heavy ground in Ireland. Count D’Orsay looks a big danger on his better form (NOT his last run), but the selection has won five races off higher marks, and with cheekpieces added to help him focus, we should get a decent run for our money.
2.25pm Ascot
Our second Group Three on a fabulous Ascot card, this time over a mile and for fillies and mares aged three or above. In the last 24 runnings we have only ever seen a solitary five-year-old successful and nothing older so it makes sense to focus on the youngsters, with 16 or the three-year-olds successful, and seven four-year-olds. Cadeau Belle is the unknown quantity after winning her two starts in Ireland for Johnny Murtagh, the latest in Listed class and she looks worth a step up to this better company, but if Ameynah is ready to go after close to 15 months off then her form stands out to me. Lightly raced for a four-year-old with just the three starts, she won on the second of those to take a Newmarket maiden and was then anything but disgraced when sixth in the 1000 Guineas, beaten just three lengths at the line. We don’t know why she has been off the track, and we have no idea if she is back to her best, but she has plenty of potential, and if she handles this softer surface, she could prove too good for these rivals.
2.40pm York
Statistics make fools of us all but the overall thought is that on ground with cut in it as expected here, a high draw is a bonus over the six furlongs. Fifteen runners and not one of them a winner last time out tells us just how tricky this will be to solve, but if Hyperfocus runs to his best, he can go well at a huge price. At the age of nine any improvement seems highly unlikely, but he has won three times on soft and once on heavy, twice in this class, with one of those at Ripon this year off just 1lb lower. Add a nice high draw and he could go close, though this is not a race to expect anyone to find a “good thing”.
3.00pm Ascot
One look at the early odds will tell you just how competitive this seven-furlong handicap is, and if we can find the winner, I will be more than happy! Ryan Moore rode Biggles to a two-length success last time out at Newmarket in a similar contest when the six-year-old scored with a bit in hand over this trip, and it seems fair to guess that Ryan may have even suggested this for his next target. He is due to go up 5lb in the handicap for future contests but races here carrying a 3lb penalty meaning he is officially 2lb “well in” and with the World’s best jockey keeping the ride, he won’t be too far away with a clear run.
3.15pm York
A Group Two over a mile and a quarter rounds off the contribution of York to the ITV racing this afternoon, and as we haven’t seen a winning favourite since 2017, all things seem possible. That said, a disappointing four horse field means we unlikely to be seeing a 14/1 winner as we did in 2021, with My Prospero expected to land the odds dropping in class for trainer William Haggas and jockey Tom Marquand. He has come home fourth in both starts this year, firstly in the Lockinge at Newbury and then in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot, but this looks a lot easier. I am wary that he has never won on going as soft as we expect this afternoon, but class will out as they say, and he may have too many guns for the returning Alflaila, who is one to watch for the rest of the season.
3.40pm Ascot
Looking at the entries earlier in the week and this has the makings of the race of the season if they all stand their ground – and I am including the Arc in that statement whatever the French try to tell us. When you see a Grade One winner (Bolshoi Ballet) trading at 150/1 that tells you just how good this race is, and with an Irish Derby winner (Westover, by seven lengths) at 16/1 we are talking strength in depth. In my eyes, the softer going anticipated is the thing to focus on, while the fact that only three three-year-olds have won in the last 10 runnings may say more about recent year’s classic generations than the horses on show this afternoon. Auguste Rodin arrives after winning the English and Irish Derbies but was more workmanlike at The Curragh than I would have preferred, and I wonder if he needs a break before returning in the Autumn. We will find out this afternoon I suppose, but decisions have to be made, and I will be backing King Of Steel. He was beaten half a length by Auguste Rodin at Epsom but that was his first start since last October, and he showed the benefit of that run with an easy win in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot. His recent gallops have seem the Newmarket workwatchers highly impressed, and with a debut win on soft ground at Nottingham, the going should not be an issue for the Roger Varian trained colt.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Dazzling Star each way 1.50pm Ascot
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