ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
A fairly quiet week on the news front but as if by magic, last week we were busy extolling the virtues of Lady jockeys and how they aren’t be being utilised as much as they should be – and guess who went on to win the Shergar Cup? Rachel Vennicker won the first race, Hayley Turner the second and the sixth, and Rachel King the third, with the Ladies team of Hayley, Rachel V and Jo Mason winning the team award, and Hayley the top jockey – excellent timing and proof in my eyes that we were correct in our assumptions. “Give us the tools and we will finish the job” is a Winston Churchill quote (I think), but if ever any racing stick-in-the-muds needed proof that lady jockeys can hold their own against the men and come out on top, last Saturday was an excellent example. Naturally, those were a select few ladies on the day, and after I was sent a text by Ron Robinson, Tuesday evening I have to add Amie Waugh to the list. Small of stature but big of heart, she was as cool as a cucumber on board favourite Rock Melody in the six-furlong handicap at 7.30pm, ridden from way off the pace, running into all sorts of traffic problems before squeezing through for the “easiest” neck success you will ever see. Admittedly the horse did look well in after an unlucky run the race before under the same jockey, but she exuded confidence on Tuesday night and as far as I could see (she was off screen for a few seconds), never resorted to the use of the whip, not even once, for a brilliant ride that deserves plenty of recognition. That was her 10th win of the season and I am looking forward to watching her ride many more as the season progresses.
Moving on, and the Racing Post had an excellent series of articles recently about how various generations see racing as a sport and a betting medium, and I encourage anyone who hasn’t read it to do so when they can. I don’t want to spoil it too much for you but there were plenty of positive comments (then again, they were invited guests so what can you expect), and so far we are only talking about old racegoers and really old racegoers (like me) – and it will be interesting to see what the youngsters think? What I did note was the prices of entry and poor service regularly mentioned when it comes to food and drink (and the prices, gee whizz) as negatives, and the enjoyment felt by regulars and their feeling of racing camaraderie as the positives, and the different views on Flat and National Hunt as things the sport can take away – if only someone is listening that is? Sorry but I cannot side with the “it’s no more expensive than at a concert” argument when it comes to the price of a beer or a prosecco – Taylor Swift concerts are a sell out and can effectively do what they want, ditto most Premier League football matches – Lingfield on a Tuesday afternoon is anything but and will remain that way if first time racegoers feel ripped off – then tell their friends and share their bad experience on social media.
Meanwhile, I won’t name names but I had a chat with someone at the BHA this week regarding the geographical split of fixtures which I have mentioned numerous times. Recent Sundays have seen two or three meetings a day, with the vast majority up North and very little in the densely populated south – you know, where there are plenty of people who might fancy a day at the races? It seems madness to me but it was explained that the vast majority of those fixtures were owned by the racecourses and therefore outside of BHA control. I cannot argue with the facts, but I can argue with the concept – how are the BHA (or anyone) supposed to grab hold of a declining sport and drag it kicking and screaming into the 21st century (I’m not so sure it’s in the 20th yet to be honest), when there are too many fingers in the ever-decreasing pie? It may not be politically correct (no rioting please) to suggest the sport needs an all-powerful dictatorship to get things done, but that feels the only way forward with meeting after meeting to reach any conclusion potentially costing a lot more money than the sport can realistically afford to lose.
Lastly, for something a little different (I rarely if ever bet ante-post), I thought I would have a look at the Arc to be run at Longchamp in Paris on Sunday 6th October this year. Seen as the best Flat race of the year by many (I disagree if only because it is at the end of a long hard season and the going in invariably on the soft side), but it is a top race and one the Brits have won with Golden Horn, Enable (twice) and Alpanista in the last decade. At this early stage we are trying to second guess both the runners and the going but we have to assume some give in the ground which may not suit some of those nearer to the head of the betting., who may well be redirected to the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar instead. Unbeaten French Derby winner Look De Vega heads the betting at 7/2 but he is yet to race beyond a mile and a quarter and is a son of Lope De Vega out of a High Chaparral mare suggesting he may not last home if it is run at a decent early pace (for a change), though there is enough stamina in his pedigree on the dam’s side for his connections to be optimistic. City Of Troy is next in the market but I will be amazed if he heads here instead of richer pickings in America on quicker ground (or dirt), and all of a sudden we are looking at some bigger prices for my suggestion. Opera Singer is touted as the more likely to run for Aidan O’Brien and to be fair she should handle the ground, but three-year-olds have only won three of the last 10 runnings and she may yet come unstuck. White Birch is a horse I love and if he gets the mile and a half he could be the surprise package, but I will nominate four-year-old Al Riffa at odds of 16/1 as my pick. Only beaten a length by City Of Troy in the Coral Eclipse at Sandown, he was finally stepped up in trip last time out at Hoppegarten in the Group One Grosser Preis Von Berlin which he won easily by five lengths, and as they have always felt the twelve furlongs would be his best trip, we may not have seen the best of him yet. He has won on soft ground which ticks another box, but more importantly for an ante-post bet we know Joseph O’Brien is targeting him at the race, giving us a higher percentage chance that he will turn up on the day. *Yutaka Take has now been booked to ride.
One more and a late add one that I am genuinely sad to report. Reports today suggest Horse Racing Ireland (HRI) have received a letter informing them of an intention to initiate legal proceeding after the sports governing body in Ireland scheduled 60 races aimed at trainers with 50 winners or less in either of the two previous seasons. Most people I know would applaud such a scheme, giving opportunities to the smaller yards, or those with lower class horses in their care – but apparently (and no-one knows just yet if all four are involved) Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott, Henry de Bromhead, and Gavin Cromwell aren’t happy with their vast majority of the racing pie – and want the crumbs they occasionally leave for others as well. Sorry chaps, I do understand you have a duty to protect your owners, but these won’t be graded races, or the most valuable handicaps – they will be titbits that won’t even cover your monthly owner hospitality bills – but mean the world to the rest of the Irish racing fraternity, trainers, and owners alike. With 1504 races in total last season over jumps, the 60 races represent a huge 4% which is chicken feed to the rich haves as opposed to the majority of have nots, and they should all be hanging their heads in shame for what appears to be unwarranted greed of the highest order and an attempt to stifle any future competition. More importantly, if they succeed here where will it all stop? Jockeys in the UK complaining about races for riders with fewer than 30 winners, or even asking for the cancellation of all amateur or apprentice races as it affects their income? Of course I don’t think it will ever come to that but the fact that I can even mention it is frankly absurd, and I can only hope if DOES go to court and HRI win to remind racings players that the governing body are the ones in charge.
Looking for the podcast link – here you go…https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2024/08/16/gen-z-greedy-irish-trainers-and-the-57-bottle-of-prosecco/
Saturday Racing
Newbury 1.50pm
Al Aasy is already a shade of odds-on for this Group Three over a mile and three-quarters or so, and I can see why after an impressive success last time out at Goodwood, but as we are always hunting for value I cannot back him at that price, not as a seven-year-old who is unlikely to find any more improvement. Al Qareem is next in the betting and a closer look at his form suggests he could give the favourite a real race for the money. Although only fifth to Kyprios in the Goodwood Cup (Group One) last time out, he would also have broken the course record, and as we can all see now, he was really up against it in that company. Dropped in class considerably here, he has proven he can handle a quicker surface and as a five-year-old may have more to offer, while he finished 13 lengths in front of the favourite last season at Ascot and meets him on exactly the same terms here. No good thing I admit, but there are reasons to think he can beat the jolly, and those are good enough for me.
Ripon 3.20pm (handicap)
Why not have a go at one of the most competitive handicaps of the year I thought, and if we find the winner he or she is likely to be at a rewarding price as they currently bet 7/1 the field. Once more into the stats we delve (sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t), and I will use the last 10 years (nine runnings) as my base line. All 9 of those winners have come out of stalls six or higher, 8 have been priced 20/1 or shorter, 7 finished in the first 7 last time out, all were aged 7 or younger (but none were four or six year olds), all ran in the last 30 days, none raced in the last 7 days, and all were officially rated 88 to 100 inclusive. Add those together and the field of 19 declared overnight suddenly becomes a shortlist of just two – Bosh and Manila Scouse. Of the remaining pair, Richard Hannon has not won this race in the last 10 years (Bosh), but Tim Easterby has won it twice with Staxton in 2020 and Matimu in 2017 (as well as Pipalong back in 1999 out of interest) and that points to the chances of Manila Scouse. A very easy winner last time out at Chepstow, he has been put up 7lb for that and will need a career best to score here, but the stats point to his each way chances, and who am I to argue?
Newbury 3.35pm
Seven runners is a real pain in the butt with an eighth needed to be paid out on the first three home, but I am still going in each way on Folgaria at these prices. English Oak heads the current market but he has to give 8lb to the selection who is a three-year-old filly, and is only rated 3lb his superior, while second favourite Kikkuli disappointed when sixth at Deauville, though that was on softer ground and at Group One level. My suggestion won a Group Three here at Newbury over seven furlongs on her return, and has been highly tried since with a five and a half length 11th in the French 1000 Guineas (Group One), and a six length sixth in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot (also Group One), which may be just about the best form on offer, and with Hollie Doyle in the saddle one more, she could surprise them all at a double figure price.
Curragh 4.00pm
Not the race I had hoped for when I made my shortlist and quite frankly, there is no way I will be having a bet. Aidan O’Brien’s Continuous is the odds-on favourite (not the best of starts), and although he may be then likeliest winner, his claim to fame comes from winning the St Leger last year over a mile and three quarters – and this is over ten furlongs! He did win over a mile as a two-year-old which I suppose bodes well for his chances, but although he cannot be opposed, being officially rated 5lb clear of Caught U Looking at these weights, no-one, including me, would fall over in shock were he to lack the speed these days to give his best over this trip.
Curragh 4.35pm
One of those weekends I‘m afraid with another at a fraction of odds-on, though in this case I am that bit more confident. Grosvenor Square represents Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore in the mile and three-quarter Irish St Leger trial and after a good run last time out when a length and a quarter second to stable companion Tower Of London in the Group Two Curragh Cup last month. The winner is a class act over staying trips so there was no disgrace there, and with the likelihood he has improvement to come as a three-year-old and with his stable winning seven of the last 10 renewals of this race, he really ought to land the odds.
Sean’s Suggestion:
Shareholder 2.50pm Deauville Sunday.
Not a bet I had originally planned (you were all set for a “no bet” week) but Karl Burke’s confidence in the ability of his unbeaten colt is pretty infectious. He is trying a sixth furlong for the first time but is bred to get it and more, and if James Doyle can get him some nice early cover to use his turn of foot close home, he may get past stable companion Arabie in a fascinating Prix Morny – reverse forecast anyone?
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