A whole hat full of winners last week including the outsider of three so hopefully you are all a few quids in ahead of the Christmas action that certainly comes thick and fast – so no time or room for too much in the way of racing stories I’m afraid.
All I will say is a massive well done to Hollie Doyle who put horse racing back in the spotlight with a well-deserved third in the Sports Personality of The Year and not one but three “Lesters” with top female jockey, flat jockey and a special recognition award as well. I have never been one to bang the Politically Correct drum, but in her case everything she gets is well deserved, and it’s a shame to see some of the bigots on social media suggesting otherwise – she is as big a talent as we have seen in the saddle for many years, and I have no doubt whatever that she will go on to prove all her critics wrong over the years ahead with winner after winner at the highest level.
Nuff said for a change with so many races to look at, so here we go – Happy Christmas one and all, and I can but hope that my present to you is a few more winners!
Boxing Day
Wetherby 11.50am
As you can see, we have a very busy day so although I will natter where necessary, timescales mean we have less words per race to get everything complete in time and some contests are far more important than others. This shy of two and a half miles novice contest doesn’t top the bill so short and sweet with Hollymount Hollyexpected to go off at the head of the market for trainer Kim Bailey and jockey David Bass. Already the winner of a point to point and a bumper, she made her hurdling debut at Wincanton with a highly promising second to Born In Borris when less than two lengths adrift of the winner with seven lengths back to the third, and if she improves as expected then she will take all the beating here. I will be keeping an eye on the market regarding Jonjo O’Neill’s Sweet Spirit who has been off the track since May 2019 when third in a bumper, and I fully expect her to go on to win a race or two stepped up in trip and with hurdles in front of her. Whether she will be spot on this afternoon is the question I simply can’t answer, and she will need to be pretty straight to get involved in the finish today.
Wetherby 2.05pm
Everyone knows I find these races beyond me nine times out of ten but there is the odd exception and maybe today will be the one? Once again, I have started with statistics for a handicap and note that no horse has carried more than eleven stone eleven to success in the last 24 runnings, so bye-bye to Spiritofthegames. With just the one exception, it has always gone to a horse in the first seven in the betting so farewell to Guitar Pete next, and with only one aged ten or over, au revoir to The Dutchman as well. Nothing else I can find points us in any particular direction, so my next port of call was the official ratings, and I soon discovered that most if not all of these are rated higher now than their best winning marks, though both Springtown Lake and Windsor Avenue have run well off similar ratings albeit without winning. Neither of the pair have run here before so we don’t know if the track will suit, and neither have won at this trip under rules, but with a winner and a place from three runners in this race I’ll go with Windsor Avenue each way to very small stakes more in hope than with any great confidence.
Leopardstown 1.05pm
Seven runners, four of them unbeaten, five a winner last time out, and what looks a very interesting field with the winner likely to move up the antepost markets for Cheltenham in March next year. Zanahiyr is forecast to go off odds on after wins at Ballinrobe and then Fairyhouse where he was mightily impressive, but he won’t have things so easy here and his price looks far too skinny. Autumn Evening has more to find but seems sure to improve for his hurdling bow when narrowly successful at Cork, Busselton could be anything after winning his only start over hurdles at Auteuil and deserves respect on his first start for Joseph O’Brien, but Ha D’or is the one that really intrigues me. Many feel there is a sea change in Ireland with Gordon Elliott now top of the tree, but Willie Mullins will not take that laying down I assure, you and the fact that he sends this French import here for his Irish debut speaks volumes. His one win in a bumper at Senonnes-Pouance is impossible to assess though the runner up has won since, but word coming out of the Mullins yard suggests they think a lot of him. He will need to be out of the top drawer to serve it up to the jolly and most likely winner, but at the forecast 10/1 he pays better for a place if he comes home second, and that is the way I will be playing the race on Saturday afternoon.
Leopardstown 2.15pm
A real case of form versus “why” for me here as the classy Felix Desjy looks by far the likeliest winner – so why is Henry De Bromhead happy to take him on again with Benruben after he was put in his place by the favourite last time out? With 26 lengths to find and no obvious reason to reverse the form I can’t work it out, though I will have a couple of quid on the outsider at 33/1 just in case they know something that I don’t? As for the Gordon Elliott trained seven-year-old, he just goes from strength to strength and is learning to relax in his races which seems the key to his improvement, and in beating a useful yardstick in Sizing Pottsie last time out at Punchestown, he clearly sets the standard here and should take all the beating with a clear round. The fact that Darver Star trades second in the market despite being put in his place by the favourite last time suggests a repeat of his last efforts will see the selection win again here and odds against seems remarkably generous.
Limerick 2.35pm
You can’t just ignore a race named after the mighty Faugheen, though with only five runners, and three of them trained by Willie Mullins, working it out could prove tricky with tactics the great unknown. Of the last five runnings, Mullins leads Gordon Elliott 3-2 and the betting suggest that gap will widen with Asterion Forlange trading at a short price. Easily the best of these over hurdles, the six-year-old won easily enough despite a handful of mistakes at Punchestown, and if he learns from those then he deserves his place at the head of the market. Personally, any odds against looks like value to me as we start to put together our antepost positions ahead of Cheltenham 2021.
Wincanton 12.25
Who expected a sixteen runner field here (compared to the fields in recent weeks which have generally been pretty shabby), though as a novice hurdle you will only get paid out for the first three each way regardless, unless your bookmaker of choice offers better terms, of course. Here come the Cheveley Park colours on Rose Of Arcadia, an expensive purchase at £170,000 after her point to point win at Tattersalls Farm, which was soon followed with a bumper success at Taunton. Sadly, she pulled way too much for her own good on her debut over hurdles at Ffos Las before weakening and coming home fourth, but she has had a wind operation since then and will hopefully settle better here. The trouble is, the Tizzard yard’s form is up and down like a yo-yo in recent weeks, meaning my confidence that she will run to her abilities is ebbing away by the minute and although she may be the best horse here, I will be backing Electric Annie each way instead – to very small stakes. Trained by Jack Barber, the daughter of Fame And Glory has placed in both her bumpers to date but is expected to go on from that, and although she is no world beater (I doubt we will be seeing her at Cheltenham), she won’t need to offer up very much more to get involved in then finish and is sure to have been very well schooled by her astute handler.
Wincanton 12.59
Not the race I really hoped for to be honest, with the heavy going likely to be a major factor and like a lot of punters these days, I am turning to Venetia Williams whose horses seem to relish such testing conditions. Pink Legend won on her chasing bow at Bangor despite running in snatches and was far from disgraced when an eleven length fourth to Zambella in Listed class at Warwick last time out. I wonder whether that race came a bit too soon following one run after a long absence (the bounce factor), but she is hopefully over that now, and should go well back in this sort of company. Déjà Vu looks a very serious danger sporting a first time tongue tie, but her second to Momella leaves her with a bit to find with that rival back in opposition here, though don’t be too surprised if she finishes a lot closer to that opponent now.
Kempton 1.50pm
Some seriously decent horses have taken this race over the years including Long Run, Coneygree, and Tea For Two, suggesting this is a contest well worth watching for both today and for future reference. Shan Blue has done nothing wrong so far over fences with a pair of wide margin wins at Wetherby to his name and is a worthy opponent for my selection The Big Breakway, and should make sure we see a truly run race. My earlier comments about the in and out form of the Colin Tizzard yard are still a major issue, yet I am hoping this five year old is the one to break the mould and stroll home in front. They have always seen the classy gelding as a Gold Cup winner in the making, and he looked the part when going clear over three miles at Cheltenham on his first start over the larger obstacles. I am sure they had good reason when trying him over two and a half miles next time out at Exeter, possibly to add a bit of pace to his undoubted stamina, but it didn’t work and in a muddling race he came home second to Bold Plan at odds of 2/9. Personally, I felt that was an error, but he will be far happier back up at the three miles he faces here, and if he is the RSA challenger they think he is, he needs to go close here regardless of the form of the yard’s horses.
Kempton 2.25pm
Not a race to bother having a bet in but one that will hopefully see Epatante shorten even further for the Champion Hurdle next March. Impressive enough on her return to action when swooping to take the Fighting fifth at Newcastle, she beat Silver Streak by five length to take this last year and it will be a major shock if she fails to repeat that here. With no offence intended to her rivals today she does seem to have scared off any serious opposition, with Silver Streak seemingly the likeliest to chase her home, but she has eleven pounds and more in hand of her rivals on official ratings and belongs in any short priced accas you may be considering.
Kempton 3.00pm
What a cracker of a race and one I can’t wait for – though every time I look at the field, I come up with a different winner! As things stand, trainer Paul Nicholls dominates proceedings with favourite Clan Des Obeaux (who is looking for his hat trick of wins in this contest), second favourite Cyrname, as well as Frodon (25/1), and Real Steel (14/1), so good luck to the others. As if those four weren’t enough to make your mouth water, add in Gold Cup runner-up Santini (who may not appreciate this flat track in my view), and the highly regarded Lostintranslation and we have an amazing field with three horses failing to even get a mention. Of the Nicholls quarter, I cannot help but think that Harry Cobden will have had the choice of mounts and has plumped for Cyrname, and as I can’t decide between them, that will do for me. He looked as fresh as a daisy on his return at Wetherby when surprisingly easy to back before coming home a couple of lengths clear, but I am certain he will improve for that run and has been targeted here for some time. The trip is the big question as the majority of his better form is over shorter but if he can’t get home here I will be surprised, though the other jockeys will be aware of his issue and try to exploit it if they can. I do wonder if Real Steel will run a big race at a price and I won’t be surprised if he runs in to a place today, but I fully expect a Nicholls battle one way or the other in a race I am really looking forward to for all the right reasons.
Wolverhampton 4.05pm
Just the one for the all-weather fans today as they put on a decent Class Two Conditions Stakes at Wolverhampton Saturday afternoon. A six furlong dash though with six runners I am unconvinced the draw will make too much difference, though we do have that familiar battle between form in the book – and potential. Lord Of The Lodge heads official ratings for Karl Burke and has his first start since a wind operation, but was beaten twelve lengths in both the Jersey Stakes (ground too soft and an extra furlong) and then in the Group One July Cup at Newmarket when quite frankly, massively outclassed. He hasn’t been seen since that run and his fitness has to be taken on trust, but at his best he is possibly the class act here and won’t be too far adrift at the line. On The Warpath was a good third in Listed class at Lingfield last month and brings decent and more importantly recent form to the table which may well give him an edge, while the unknown quantity is the William Haggas trained Boosala, unbeaten after two starts at Windsor and York, but making his all-weather debut and returning from a five month absence with no explanation why? He has certainly looked the part and could make fools of us all (well, me particularly), but Lord Of The Lodge looks the more sensible call with question marks about just about all the runners.
Sunday 27th
Leopardstown 1.10pm
On paper we have a cracker of a race despite a six runner field and even outsider Le Richebourg could get involved with a clear round at odds of 33/1 and is clearly overpriced dropped back to a far more realistic trip after pulling up over further behind Min on his return. He will strip fitter for his first start in 22 months and will run with a small saver on his back from me this afternoon just in case and could go close regardless of his price. Of those nearer the head of the market, Chacun Pour Soi is the one they all have to beat having beaten Min at Leopardstown in February and looking as good as ever when scoring on his return at Cork in little more than a hack canter. He should prove too good for Notebook who caught the eye at Naas last month but at odds on he is not one I will be betting on, though if I find a few others at short priced I might have a little acca for the fun of it.
Leopardstown 1.45pm
A proper test at last for talking horse Ballyadam with anything less than an easy success bound to see his Cheltenham price lengthen dramatically. All those talking him up over the last few weeks will be in shock to see that he may not even go off favourite here, with the Willie Mullins trained Appreciate It competing for that honour. Both arrive in top form with Ballyadam scoring at Fairyhouse despite a couple of errors, and Appreciate It making a winning debut over hurdles at Cork, to follow up his rock solid bumper form that includes a Cheltenham Festival second. Both horses mentioned look class, but they aren’t the only ones in this field and there may be better value to be found elsewhere. Keskonrisk and Call Me Lyreen should both be worried for favourite backers but I narrowly prefer 10/1 chance Thedevilscoachman as an each way alternative. Owned by the legendary J P McManus and trained by Noel Meade, he was bought for a bargain 27,000 Euros as a yearling for his patient connections before making his debut over two years later when taking a Naas bumper. Ten months alter we saw him over hurdles at Cork where he didn’t jump particularly well, but still came home over five lengths clear of the field, and although I admit he needs to brush up his hurdling skills to take a hand here, that is more than a possibility and he could be the dark horse here.
Limerick 2.05pm
One look at the fields in these novice events in Ireland reminds me why they are so successful come Cheltenham in March, they just have so much strength in depth. Two miles seven furlongs on heavy ground is not ideal and without a distance winner in the field we are trying to second guess who does or does not have the necessary stamina. Darrens Hope has won over three miles and had excuses last time out when pulled up at Cork in a better race than this, suggesting he could be overpriced at the forecast prices, while Costalotmore intrigues and would surely be a shorter price if trained by Mullins or Elliott, for example? Twice a point to point winner over three miles he won easily enough on his hurdling debut on this ground at Limerick over a couple of furlongs shorter, and if he can slip this field early, he may take some pegging back. No good thing by any stretch of the imagination in a very tough race to call but each way value to me and as good a bet as any here.
Chepstow 2.50pm
A tough handicap to solve for the Welsh Grand National with heavy going making the three and three quarter miles even more of a mountain to climb. Once again I have started with the stats in an attempt at getting the number of potential challengers down to something even I can handle, and the first things that jumped off the page is the fact that all of the last 23 winners had come home in the first six last time out, which takes out seven of this field. Only one of the 23 had won over this trip before, so two more drop out, though after that we are having to make less accurate assumptions as the stats run dry. Only two of this line-up have won off the ratings they are lumbered with this afternoon from the remaining list, and that leaves me with Vieux Lion Rouge and Big River as my two against the field as they both handle heavy ground. Age is possibly against the David Pipe trained eleven year old, yet he was so impressive at Aintree last time I have no hesitation in including him with his four pound penalty, while Big River can only improve for his third at Cheltenham and could sneak into a place at a decent price.
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