Plenty to talk about this week (that is what happens when you have a week off), starting with a brief comment on Champions Day.
Moving on and I note that despite all the arguments about poor prize money and the economics of our racing, the big boys were still out in force buying up at the sales. Now contrary to popular belief my pockets aren’t that deep so I am not talking from personal experience, but I am a firm believer that good as the rich folk are for the breeding industry, they do help to create an artificial market value which has a knock-on effect on overall costs. You can’t stop it (market forces), but when people are buying horses for six figures and more I do have to question the sanity with prize money as it is, but they are also inflating the value of their own sires in the process, and that should be questioned in my opinion.
Elsewhere the row between Bryony Frost and Robbie Dunne has been made public (why) which hasn’t exactly helped racing’s image, and it will be interesting to watch out for the fall out. As a person of a certain age I have to watch what I say in the year 2021, but I will add that bullying of any kind is unacceptable in my book. Where the line is drawn between banter and bullying is a tough question to answer, but I do feel changing the attitude of a weighing room isn’t a task I wouldn’t like to be left with, that’s for sure.
Next on the who is rowing with who list we have ARC (Arena Racing) versus the Horsemen as an add £5 million fails to make its way in to the racing coffers with the rejection of nine race cards on the all-weather between November and March. Both sides are blaming each other, and I can see the argument that we would see further reductions in field sizes and thus betting turnover, but it should and could have been discussed further. As things stand we have a sport crying out for more money but now seen to have turned down a cash injection, which makes us all look pretty stupid and will mean our future arguments need to be even more substantial than they were before.
Lastly, we have something more positive – though not from a betting perspective. Those rushing out to take the 2/5 about Paul Nicholls retaining his crown as Champion trainer seem more than likely to collect at the end of the National Hunt season, with Nicky Henderson the only possible danger though numerically, I don’t see he has a chance. It may nor be important in the great scheme of things but no-one likes a sport where one person or team dominates and racing is no exception, but can anyone see a challenger or a yard big enough to even have a serious say, because I’m damned if I can?
Bored of reading – feel free to listen here instead https://postracing.co.uk/2021/10/21/the-lads-are-back-in-the-saddle-and-ron-has-one-you-simply-have-to-tune-into-on-saturday/
Friday
Dundalk 7.15pm
Just the one Group Three this Friday and a five-furlong sprint on the all-weather in Ireland of all places. In races of this distance luck in running and a smart break are as important as the formbook, and we will need a bit of luck if we want to walk away with the winner. There is no doubt that a low draw is a bonus here so we need to at least consider that when doing our calculations, and that has drawn me to the Charlie Hills trained May Sonic who will be coming out of the two stall. A decent handicapper back home in England he has won at Chelmsford and Kempton on the all-weather, and Windsor on the turf, but seems at his best on the artificial surfaces that he meets here. He was well-beaten at Chelmsford last time after a slow start and he cannot afford to do that here, but the fact they send him over the Irish sea and have booked Seamie Heffernan to ride suggests to me they mean business, and I will be surprised if he isn’t involved in the finish.
Saturday
Newbury 2.00pm
I can remember the day when the Horris Hill winner was seen as a serios classic pretender but although the recent winners have all been decent animals, looking at the last 10 years I am struggling to name a star among them. Three unbeaten colts enter the fray this afternoon, all after just the one start, so your guess is as good as mine regarding who will improve past who in this field. Add in heavy going which is an unknown quantity for most of these and is not an easy one to call, but a job is a job and I have come down on the side of Noble Truth. He holds Hoo Ya Mal on September form, albeit by only a nose, but ran his best race yet when second to Angel Blue in the Group One Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp on heavy going, and if you add the better form of that race to his ability to handle underfoot conditions he becomes difficult to oppose.
Newbury 2.35pm
Less chat needed for this race with the highest rated contender getting weight from all of his rivals, and the ground the only concern. Godolphin look all set for a big day and Siskany could be one of their winners after he came home clear last time out over this trip at Newmarket in a Class Two handicap. He certainly deserves a crack at some blacktype on that form and is now rated 111, 5lb clear of Ilaraab who has to give him 6lb, suggesting we are on another winner.
Newbury 3.10pm
Two-year-olds again now and a Listed race but not an awe inspiring one I am sorry to say. If the formbook is upheld then you would have to think Jumbly has an outstanding chance, and as a daughter of Gleneagles I am pretty hopeful she will handle the ground as well. The winner of her first two races at Leicester and Kempton, she was stepped up in class last time out in the Group Two Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket when she wasn’t up to the grade, but she still ran respectably enough in fourth to suggest she can take this lesser contest, with Hollie Doyle tasked with doing the steering once again.
Doncaster 3.15pm
This is not a race I will be betting in I am sorry to say and that is because I can’t make my mind up on the likeliest winner. Luxembourg has done nothing wrong for Aidan O’Brien winning both his starts at Killarney and the Curragh very easily, the latest in the Group Two Beresford Stakes, and if he handles this softer going he will take all the beating. However, I know that trainer Mark Johnston wasn’t best pleased when all the media attention was about Coroebus throwing away the Royal Lodge Stakes when caught close home, and not about the winner Royal Patronage, who was hardly at fault for getting to the front close home. This is chance to out matter right on that score and I am positive stamina is already his forte, and it should be a fascinating contest between the pair this afternoon.
Doncaster 3.50pm
Just the seven runners but five of them a winner last time out, three of those unbeaten after one start, one looking to land the hat-trick, and another already on for a four timer. Gold medal is a horse I will be keeping a close eye on for future reference as I liked his attitude when winning on debut at Wolverhampton, but we don’t know for certain if he will handle turf let alone the soft ground predicted here, and preference is for Flaming Rib. Four wins and three places from eight starts is already a solid return but he seems to be improving with every start, making all at Chester last time out and coming home alone. He has won and placed on good to soft so he may well handle these conditions, and looks to have a rock solid chance despite the step up in grade from handicap class.
Cheltenham 4.05pm
I can’t let the Cheltenham meeting go by without mentioning one race at least as we get ready for the winter game, though this is a tricky one to solve. Tullybeg is a tough one to second guess as he only ever seems to do just enough to stay in front where it matters and there is a theory but that makes him difficult to handicap. I haven’t forgiven Gordon Elliott just yet and can’t have his horses for that reason alone (no logic but I don’t care), and will side with Push the Tempo each way instead. Robert Stephens trains the eight-year-old who has had the one run since a wind operation, and as I am a firm believer their next run is the best, yet he has already improved significantly with a win at Worcester when running on to score by a head over a fraction shorter last month. Only put up 2lb for that I am quietly confident he has even more to come, and although no good thing here, he should give us a big run for our money at a double figure price.
Sean’s Selections:
Noble Truth 2.00pm Newbury
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