How I would love to tell you that I have returned suitably refreshed from my week off, but we all know holidays are exhausting in their own right, and I am now back to work for a rest!
Although I have kept a passing glance on the racing World while I was away, I did try to switch off, so all I have to talk about are recent issues – and the weekend’s racing, of course.
What we have seen this week are not one but three superlative performances from perhaps the best horses in training in Europe at least starting with Palace Pier. John Gosden’s miler made it nine wins from 10 starts at Deauville when giving six pounds to Poetic Flare for a neck success, but what I cannot work out is how the winner is feted left right and centre – and the runner-up is much maligned all round in “a poor year for three-year-olds” – go figure? That is not to take anything away from the winner, but the fickle world of racing pundits never ceases to amaze me, myself included.
On Wednesday all eyes were on York for the Juddmonte Stakes over a mile and a quarter where I was on Alcohol Free – who may still be running. With hindsight the 9/4 about Mishriff was an absolute steal (who knows why he was so weak in the market?) as he came home six lengths clear of his field dropped back to the mile and a quarter to take his career earnings to over £11,000,000 (no that is not a typo), and in a time over two seconds faster than standard. He still holds an Arc entry, but the Champion Stakes at Ascot seems far more likely, though after that surely a lucrative career at stud beckons.
On Thursday it was the turn of Snowfall to put her 2021 record on the line in the Yorkshire Oaks, and although unbackable for normal people like me at odds of 8/15, she was never in any real danger before coming home four lengths clear, again in a decent time. The whip was never needed by Ryan Moore as she simply needed to be pushed out to come clear, though I am wary of the form with the time of the race suggesting the conditions were never going to suit Wonderful Tonight, who on form was her only danger. Her next stop may well be the Arc in what may be the best renewal for many a year.
On to a different subject and I get the feeling I am the only one mourning the passing of the Southwell equitrack which is being replaced with tapeta, a faster all-weather alternative. There has been cheering from the rooftops in the racing World, but do we really want to turn in to America where the tracks are the same along with the surface. Akin to a softer surface in my opinion, it gave those flat horses who hated the fast ground on the turf somewhere to go, and although they can still safely race on the tapeta, it isn’t the same by any means. Variety is what racing is all about (the jealousy I encounter from around the World for our different track configurations etc is unreal), and for me, Southwell is now pretty much the same as all the other tracks using an artificial surface.
If you would prefer to listen to our thoughts feel free to go to the free podcast where Ron Robinson of World Of Sport fame will join me at https://postracing.co.uk/2021/08/20/this-week-the-dogs-really-are-barking/
Racing this weekend:
Saturday.
1.50pm York
Anyone who knows me will expect me to go for favourite Real World here as Saeed bin Suroor’s son of Dark Angel looks for his hat-trick after wins at Ascot and Newbury, but his odds look prohibitive, and he needs to step up again for this Group Three contest. He has impressed all year and can’t be passed over lightly, but William Haggas has his horses in great form, and I narrowly prefer My Oberon. A winner at this level back in April at Newmarket, he has been highly tried since in three Group One’s on the bounce with a neck third to Skalleti at Longchamp and a three and a quarter length fourth to Love in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot when weakening late on over a furlong further. Anything but disgraced that day, he drops down in class this afternoon and ought to prove hard to beat returning from a two-month break.
2.05pm Sandown
An interesting race and one where the result may well have a bearing on the 6.40pm at The Curragh this evening. Odds on favourite reach For The Moon ran away with his novice last time out for the Gosdens and was only half a length behind current 2000 Guineas favourite Point Londsale (who runs at the Curragh) the race before in the Listed Chesham Stakes, so if he is as good as they think, The Queen’s horse should win this. I won’t be betting at those odds in a race that may not be quite as one-sided as the betting implies, with three unbeaten horses in opposition, who are open to any amount of improvement.
2.10pm Chester
Sometimes races just jump off the page at you as ones you want to get your teeth in to – and sometimes they don’t, and this is most certainly one of the latter. Uber Cool may well have “bounced” a little when third at Ascot on his second run back after a very long lay-off and he could go well for Jane Chapple-Hyam, but preference is just about for Yesyes who sit nicely at the bottom of the weights thanks to her three-year-old and filly allowances, and looked likely to appreciate the step up in trip when fourth over shorter at Newmarket. That defeat ended her unbeaten record following wins at Haydock and Lingfield, but I did like the way she stuck to her task last time, and this trip could yet see her in an even better light.
2.40pm Sandown
The early betting here suggests plenty of punters are happy enough to forgive Indigo Girl a poor run on her belated return at Ascot, but she was beaten seven lengths and for me, arrives with something to prove. She did pull too hard for her own good I agree, and had the best form as a juvenile of all of these, but I prefer to take an each way chance on Saffron Beach, who is far better than her form figures imply. A three-quarter length second to Sacred (who won the Hungerford Stakes last weekend) on her seasonal debut, she followed that with a running on second to Mother Earth (won the Group One Prix Rothschild last time out) in the 1000 Guineas, she patently failed to see out the mile and a half in the Epsom Oaks and then failed to give her true running in the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket. Dropped considerably in class to this Group Three event and with the stiff mile looking ideal following a six-week break, she looks overpriced to me and has an excellent chance with Hollie Doyle in the saddle.
3.00pm York
I am not one for simply going for the favourite as you may have noticed, but in this case, Space Blues is hard to oppose. Charlie Appleby’s five-year-old is the highest rated contender here, but more importantly has a 100% record over course and distance having come home two lengths clear in a handicap in 2019. He has improved considerably since then and was last seen coming home a three-quarter length fourth in the Group Two Lennox Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, when I felt he was left with too much to do earlier in the race. His form does stand out in this field but be warned, three-year-olds have won five of the last six runnings, suggesting Primio Baccio is a serious danger after her two length seventh in Group One company in France last time out, and I may even dabble in a reverse forecast for safety sake.
3.35pm York
Sometimes a big field handicap comes along that just cannot be ignored regardless of how difficult it looks to solve, and the Ebor over a mile and there-quarters is one of those contests. Up to 22 runners will take part meaning luck in running will play a part, with the most interesting aspect early doors being the fact that ante-post favourite Live Your Dream needs one above him to come out to actually get in to the race (he is first reserve). Fujaira Prince looks a player dropping into handicap company after competing at Group level for his last three starts and he did win this last year, but in 2021 he has to carry 6lb more, though this does look to be his long-term target. He will have to defy past statistics to win off a mark of 114 (nothing above 109 has won in the last 23 runnings), but rules are made to be broken, and at 12/1, he looks each way value. Sonnyboylistonwas not passed over lightly I assure you, with Johnny Murtagh’s four-year-old just a length behind Fujairah Prince here last time out at level weights, and he gets six-pounds today which theoretically means he will turn that form around, but he isn’t sure to stay this trip in a truly run race, and I am hoping my selection will improve enough for his first start in nine months to confirm that form today. Hamish is my third suggestion after heavy market support all week. The William Haggas trained gelding has a good record here at York with two wins from two starts over course and distance, but he clearly has his issues with just the one start last season when fourth in the Group Two Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot, and if we knew he could repeat that after 14 months off we wouldn’t look any further for the winner.
4.10pm York
An interesting/impossible race next that sees the filly expected balancing act of form versus potential. In the blue corner we have Boonie, Kevin Ryan’s smart son of Brazen Beau who has placed in both the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Group Three Molecomb Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. He deserves to get his head in front for the second time here in first-time cheekpieces, and seems sure to go well, but I will be taking a chance on Thunder Love who is taking a big step up in class but has done everything asked of him so very easily so far. Both his starts have been on the all-weather at Kempton, a cosy win on debut and a five lengths romp in a Class four novice and as they say you never know how good a horse is until it is beaten, I am willing to take that chance – each way, of course.
6.05pm The Curragh
No great surprise to tell you Aidan O’Brien won this contest in 2011, 2013, 2015, 2016, and 2017, and he looks to have the answer here as well with Concert Hall. Green as grass on his Fairyhouse debut he wasn’t given a hard time of it before running on in to second but showed the benefit of that education with a maiden win over this course and distance, running on strongly under a vigorous ride after being headed. She still looked to need that, mentally at least, and more improvement is expected – and in case we forget, Snowfall won that race last year and she hasn’t turned out to be too bad!
6.40pm The Curragh
See the 2.05pm for a form clue before placing your bets! Point Lonsdale arrives here unbeaten after three starts and currently heads the 2000 Guineas market for 2022, though he will need to win this to cement that position for now. A son of Australia, he has stepped up from a Curragh maiden to the Listed Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot before winning the Group Three Tyros Stakes at Leopardstown by an easy three lengths. He is impossible to back at odds on, and impossible to oppose as well, but I do have a nagging doubt at the back of my mind that Point Gellibrand could be his biggest rival. A once raced son of Camelot, he was one of the unluckiest losers of the season on his only start so far when beaten a short head in a course and distance maiden after being repeatedly denied a clear run, and although this is a far deeper race, Joseph O’Brien rarely tilts at windmills and I can only assume he has been showing something spectacular in his home work to make it in to this line-up.
Sean’s Suggestions:
My Oberon 1.50pm York Saturday
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