ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
There was only ever going to be one place I could start this week with the incredible victory of Via Sistina in Australia in the Cox Plate last weekend – the daughter of Fastnet Rock must be some horse to do that! For those who did not see the race (shame on you!), the six-year-old mare took the highly competitive Group One contest by eight lengths, smashing the course record of Winx by over two seconds despite begin heavily eased before the line by jockey James McDonald and having to come from way off the pace. As my Australian friends see Winx as the greatest horse to ever live (as if Frankel didn’t exist) I am looking forward to their thoughts on this result and how any horse can break a record by such a huge margin? She must be an absolute machine to do that to a class field with zero luck involved and I just see it as a real shame that our prize money, or lack of it, means we will never see her on these shores. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iJhzfAhnwvI
From good news to bad and my comment after Cheltenham last weekend was “God helps us at the Festival come March”. No-one would suggest they sent anything near to their A team over but they still won six races over the two days which is more than a little worrying for those if us hoping the home team can put up a bigger fight. I have no idea how we put things right (without financial intervention from the government and that isn’t going to happen anytime soon), but I can already see yet another bloody nose in the big races at the Cheltenham Festival.
Lastly, I have rarely I ever seen Aiden O’Brien so animated as he has been in recent days, with the vet enforced scratching of Jans Bruegel from the Melbourne Cup getting his hackles up. Unsurprisingly, he doesn’t agree with the local vets decision based on various scans that the horse had a heightened risk of injury, reigniting the argument that (funnily enough), its only European horses who get ruled out and that it isn’t a level playing field. That argument took a hefty knock when two Australian trained runners were also ruled out, but it was interested to see the Coolmore vets did not agree with the findings of said scans – you would think vets would all talk the same language, or am I being naïve?
On to the racing (no podcast this week, I’m too busy)
Saturday Racing
Wetherby 1.50pm
Not the most competitive race to start our day, but it is a test of the Nicky Henderson yard whose current running to form figure of just 21% is way short of where I would expect them to be. He runs favourite Lucciahere, third in the Champion Hurdle last March and fourth in the Aintree hurdle on her last start in April. That form is head and shoulders ahead of anything any of her rivals can offer, with Take No Chance the likeliest to follow her home for the on-fire Skelton string.
Wetherby 2.22pm
A tough race to call this early in the season with fitness a prime requirement for a top-class contest over three miles. Early jolly Dashel Drasher goes well fresh but at the age of 11 he may take a little more getting ready, and I am going to take a chance on Kateira who has won first time out in two of her three seasons – and was second in the other. Trained by Dan Skelton who is firing in winners left right and centre, she was second on her only previous try over this trip at Kempton, but as a mare she gets 3lb from the majority of her rivals, and 9lb from the favourite, making her outstanding value at the current price of 8/1 or an each way bet.
Wetherby 2.58pm
The Charlie Hall Chase is more interesting than the majority of races this afternoon, with the eagerly anticipated return to action of Bravemansgame following a wind operation. He is class at his best, no doubt about that, but he has let his supporters down a little too often for my liking and at 6/4 I can look elsewhere. Gordon Elliot’s Conflated is officially rated his equal by the handicapper, and has the benefit of a run this season, albeit a short one after he unseated at the first at Punchestown last month. Second to Jonbon over two and a half miles at Aintree in April, and already a winner over three miles at Leopardstown (twice), if he gets his jumping together he has a potent blend of speed and stamina, and at 8/1 (not long gone) if he gets a clear round, in he could upset the market leader.
The Breeders Cup from Del Mar
I see no need to go into every race here with American and Japanese form an enigma to most (even me, to an extent), but it is top class Flat racing and I cannot just ignore it, so cherry picking it is.
7.41pm Del Mar
Big Evs has his swansong here before heading off to stud, but he has a bit to find in this field and if f we are going to win it, then surely Bradsell is the likeliest of our six contenders. He can go well and a place looks his for the taking, but Cogburn seems the one to beat. Steve Asmussen’s son of Not This Time has had the perfect preparation with wins at Churchill Downs, Saratoga, and Kentucky Downs this year, barely breaking sweat to do so, and if he remains at that level, he is difficult to oppose.
9.41pm Del Mar
Will he or won’t he (handle the dirt). I am talking about City Of Troy, Derby Eclipse and Juddmonte winner, and looking to win close to £3,000,000 here if he takes to the surface. Early in the year I heard rumours that he may ignore the 2000 Guineas to head to the Kentucky Derby and although that turned out to be untrue, it does suggest they have long held the belief he will take to the surface. He is class on turf, no doubt about that, and if he wins here, his stallion value soars dramatically as you can all imagine, but at 7/4 that is a huge IF. I can’t and won’t go against him, though I am wary of Japanese raider Forever Young (who looks a sensible each way alternative), and if I do have a bet, it won’t be to anything other than the smallest of stakes.
11.45pm Del Mar
I am loving the look of the Turf mile with some top class contenders from Europe including Notable Speech, Porta Fortuna, and Diego Velasquez. All three can go well, and I may have already named the winner, but at 14/1 locally trained runner Johannes is my each way call. With a record of seven wins from eight starts since switching to the turf, including the Grade One Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita in May, we know he handles the firm going predicted (which may see some of ours struggle), and at a double figure price, he could surprise them all.
Sean’s Suggestion:
Kateira 2.22pm Wetherby
Comments