ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
Sadly there is only one place to start this week, and that is with the frankly embarrassing Irish domination at Cheltenham, but where do I begin? I certainly don’t decry the performances of the horses and connections involved, with Willie Mullins clearly a master of his craft, but surely it cannot be as simple as that? Can he really improve horses to such an extent that they are close to unbeatable, or does he just have the best string, and if so WHY? I wonder if anyone has ever done the simple maths of working out the return per pound spent on both training fees and original purchase for the Mullins and Elliott strings and then made the comparison with, for example Nicholls and Henderson, to get a better idea of the value added by both the trainers concerned and the difference in British/Irish prize money because I for one would find that interesting reading? We clearly have a problem and at least the BHA acknowledge that fact, though we still don’t have all the answers with the lack of prize money the obvious one – plus tax benefits enjoyed over in Ireland another problem that need careful management.
As for the meetings itself, am I the only one who felt this year was a bit of a strange one? My first issue was (and often is) the official going description – the first two races were run on soft ground before the description was changed to heavy for race three – even though there had been no further rain. Now I admit I am not and never have been a Clerk Of The Course, in which case my criticism needs to be sensible and measured, but as people were betting on the going for the first race, and had worked out their bets for the days assuming the “soft” was correct, then I am sorry, but it isn’t good enough. Accurate going reports may not be easy to do, I accept that, but with going sticks to call upon and expertise as well, it isn’t good enough in the year 2024 to get it wrong – and that is not a dig at Cheltenham, that applies to every racecourse throughout the land. As for the horses, Gaelic Warrior impressed when taking the Arkle considering I don’t see two miles as his trip, State Man won a shadow of a Champion Hurdle in the absence of Constitution Hill, Lossiemouth landed the odds as expected, Ballyburn looks a machine, and Fact To File may be a future Gold Cup winner – though each of them were up against inferior opposition and I am not sure we learned too much. El Fabiolo (2/9) was the one who let down a million short-priced accumulators (there is always one), and the Irish had the first seven home in the bumper – need I say more. Although Teahupoo took the Stayers’ Hurdle it was all about the retirement of Paisley Park, one of my recent favourites and a bit of a character, while on Friday the books had a better day with just the one winning favourite when Galopin Des Champs took the Gold Cup (again) at a fraction of odds-on, but with the Irish winning six of the seven contests, and the Hunter Chase the one prize staying this side of the Irish Sea.
Meanwhile, the “Grim Reaper” of affordability checks continues to threaten the sport we love, and if you don’t listen to Radio 4 (really?), then you may have missed my 10 minutes of fame? I am told by others I out forward a pretty decent case on behalf of punters everywhere, though whether it will make the blindest bit of difference is another question.
Lastly and on a brighter note – its Flat season time (on the turf), though some of the excitement for the new season has gone with all-weather racing the norm on a daily basis. The Curragh got the jump on us this year with their first meeting on Monday afternoon and Aiden O’Brien has l
already had a winner with Brilliant in the one Group race on the card (though he also had a second a third and a fourth) we have to wait until Saturday for Doncaster and the Lincoln meeting, but more of that below.
Saturday’s Racing
1.20pm Doncaster
It is always tricky at this time of year as we try to balance the race fitness of those who have been active on the all-weather versus the (often) better form shown by others whose fitness is an unknow quantity – happy days if you find a winner, but difficult nonetheless. There have been nine runnings in the lasty 10 years and five winning favourites, all odds-on, and that gives plenty of hope to the supporters of Charyn, who currently heads the market. With Roger Varian and Richard Hannon winning two each of the last nine runnings and only the Newmarket handler represented this season, you can see why he heads the market, especially when you realise the son of Dark Angel is officially rated 3lb clear of Knight (and they meet at level weights here), while his form on soft ground includes a four and a half length third to Paddington in the Group One Sussex Stakes and a third to Angel Bleu and Knight in the Group Two Celebration Mile after a slow start and a bump that put him off balance at a crucial stage. I am thinking he can reverse that form with a clearer run, and as he has gone well fresh in the past (a debut winner and second to Issac Shelby in the Greenham last year), he will do for me.
1.50pm Doncaster
I know I shouldn’t, you know I shouldn’t – but I can’t resist a very small bet on the first proper two year-old-race of the season, despite the glaringly obvious fact that we have zero form whatsoever to go one – it’s fun! Trainer Bill Turner was the one to go to here a few years back and I will be watching the markets to see if Bob the Bandit is fancied or not, but looking at pedigrees I like the each way chances of Roysdelight (each way). A son of Bungleinthejungle out of a Dream Ahead mare he is one of the few here who looks sprint bred and if he is fit to do himself justice and handles the ground, he could at least give us a good run for our money.
2.25pm Doncaster
Seven of the last nine winners of the Spring Mile have carried nine stone or more which is a starting point, though the draw seems of little help with winners from the one stall to the 21 stall – back to the drawing board, though good luck to anyone backing the jolly as we haven’t seen a winning favourite in the last decade plus. What we do know as fact is that Horswell Duke (each way) won this last season from the 15 stall and he is back for more this year form then berth next door (14), which has to make him of each way interest. He runs off a mark of 75 this afternoon less Jonny Peate’s 3lb claim from the saddle, but was rated 83 last year, and has won three times in handicap company off a higher mark than todays. So, the question is, has he gone backwards since that win, or is he well handicapped now? We won’t know for certain until after the race, but we do know he handles the heavy going (same conditions in 2023), isn’t badly drawn, is potentially well-weighted, and had a pipe-opener when sixth at Newcastle earlier in the month which should have put him spot-on for this.
3.00pm Doncaster
More data for me to work with here so I am referring to the last 15 years (13 runnings) in the hope that somehow magics up the winner of this competitive event. There may be just the seven runners, but all of those 13 historic winners came home in the first 10 on their previous start – and interestingly that means we can remove favourite Baradar and third favourite Orazio – worrying facts! Adaay In Devon goes because we haven’t seen a three-year-old win this in recent years, and Glorious Angel drops off the shortlist with 12 of the last 13 victors priced at 12/1 or shorter. With only one winner rated lower than 100 we now wave bye-bye to Sophia’s Starlight, we have a new list of just the two contenders – Marshman and Montassib. Both have won over the six furlongs they face here, and both have won on soft ground but with the Karl Burke stable in better form, its Marshman for me. Last seen finishing eighth to Equality in the Group Three Coral Charge in July, this will be his first start outside of Group company since his second career start when winning at Thirsk, and if he is fully tuned for his return to action (he has won on his debut in both of his two racing seasons), then he is the one I would want to be on.
3.35pm Doncaster
The Lincoln remains akin to solving a Rubik’s Cube in the dark wearing boxing gloves, but it is the first big handicap of the new turf Flat season and is one you just feel obliged to have a go at. To my surprise, we haven’t seen a winner bigger than 28/1 in the last 15 years and if that stat holds up, we can at least lose a few of the 22 declared overnight. Only one winner was older than six, but other than that, the stats tell us very little, and I will settle for Irish raider Chazzesmee (each way). He won the Irish equivalent last time out, hardly turning a hair in the process and scoring by a length off a mark of 92, and with his 5lb penalty here that equates to a rating of 97. The thought is there is plenty more to come from the lightly raced six-year-old who has had injury issues, and as he is expected to hit a rating in the 100’s once reassessed, he could be well in now. We know he is in good form, and we know he handles underfoot conditions, making him my idea of the likeliest winner, though do keep an eye on outsider Farhh To Shy - jockey Benoit De La Sayette has ridden in this race twice in the past 15 years – and won on both occasions.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Marshman to win 3.00pm Doncaster
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