ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
I have just got back from a week in the sunshine (lucky me when I see the weather here) so I am busy catching up on all things British racing - never a day off eh?
Cheltenham have made quite a few changes to their March Festival meeting and although. I won’t be commenting on food drink and accommodation (other than if they can add a bit of value that can only be a good thing), but what do we all think about the changes to certain races? Personally, I am all in favour of the Mares’ Novice Hurdle being run without penalties, effectively making it a level weights “Championship” contest which I like the idea of, I bow to the superior knowledge in the corridors of power in making the cross-country chase a handicap to make it a more open betting opportunity, though I am less convinced by changing the Turner Novices Chase into a handicap, and distraught to see the National Hunt Chase opened up to professional riders when it has always been the highlight of every amateur jockeys National Hunt season. It may not have been every punters cup of tea I accept, but it is what it is (we don’t have to bet on it), and I most certainly do see that as modernisation for the sake of it, when part of horse racing’s appeal has always been its history.
Meanwhile, and I write this every year, why do we have so many of our top races so late in the season when the ground has basically gone? Yes I am talking through my wallet after Newmarket Thursday afternoon where I fancied Candyman Star in the mile and a half handicap, but who knew it would go to soft by race time – not me when I placed my bet I can tell you! Ok so he lost (it happens) but look at the distances for a competitive handicap – 7.5l first to second, 14l second to third, 25l fifth to sixth, and 12l sixth to seventh – I am not even convinced it was soft looking at that and it will be interesting to see what the timing experts make of it – my guess is heavy?
Anyway, bitching over, and on to the racing though if I can find a winner on this ground I am even better than I pretend I am, so we will go with a few bets to minimise potential losses.
Saturday Racing
Newmarket 1.50pm
The Royal Lodge Stakes is a Group Two, so it clearly warrants at least a mention, but as it is restricted to two-year-olds, most of which have never encountered soft going, it really is a case of punter beware. Luther heads the early market and is reported by Charlie Fellowes to be the best juvenile he has every trained, but all his best form is on far quicker going and I am happy to oppose him with Puppet Master at twice the price. Trained by Aidan O’Brien, who won this in 2018 and 2019, and to be ridden by Ryan Moore, the son of Camelot was easy to back when second on his debut, but stepped up on that with a very easy four length victory at Galway on his only other start – on soft ground. This is a step up in class and we won’t know how good he is until after the race, but we do know he handles the going and at 5/1, that is good enough for me.
Newmarket 2.25pm
As you may have gathered by now, the going is my main concern this weekend and although it is hard not to have been impressed with the unbeaten pair of Lake Victoria and Babouche who dominate the market ahead of the Group One Cheveley Park Stakes, neither have encountered going as testing as it will be by Saturday afternoon. They may still have it between them, but the French send Rayevka over and at 14/1, I smell an each way opportunity. Second on her Deauville debut when beaten a short neck by the favourite on heavy ground, she went one better on her only other start at Chantilly when winning by five lengths on soft going, and although that form adds up to very little so far, we know she handles these conditions, and it seems unlikely they are sending her over from France to collect the duty-free!
The Curragh 2.35pm
Just the miserable five runners for this Group Two event over a mile and surprise surprise – we do not have an Aidan O’Brien trained favourite as I write – whatever next when you consider he has won eight of the last 10 runnings. Hotazhell heads the market after coming home second to Henri Matisse at The Curragh last month but the winner is trained at Ballydoyle suggesting the O’Brien camp will know what is needed to beat the son of Too Darn Hot and that leads me to either Trinity College or Lambourn. With Ryan Moore riding at Newmarket it seems fair to suggest Wayne Lordan would have had the choice, and he opts for the Dubawi colt who took three starts to get off the mark, though he did impress with a 12 length win at Galway to take his maiden, with the penny finally dropping as they allowed him to bowl along on the front end. If similar tactics are applied here he could have them all off the bridle bright and early, and at 7/2 he looks the better value in a race that could get tactical.
Newmarket 3.00pm
None of these have ever encountered ground as soft as this so we really are trying to second guess who will hate it, who will handle it – and who may even improve for it – lucky pin anyone? Dash Dizzy was sorely tempting at a massive price with his breeding suggesting he could take to the surface but he needs to step up a gear or two on the formbook, and if may be more sensible to side with Shadow Of Light, Godolphin’s son of Lope De Vega, whose progeny seems to handle anything thrown at them. The winner of his first two starts, he was beaten less than a length in the Group Two Gimcrack Stakes at York last time out when keeping on well over this trip, and with more of an emphasis on stamina on this going that may see him hit a top three spot if nothing else for those of us punting him each way.
Market Rasen 4.35pm
One from outside the box to end with and I am hearing that James Owen is hopeful he has rekindled some of the spirit once exhibited by Allmankind as he reverts to hurdles here over two miles. This will be the first start for the eight-year-old since leavening Dan Skelton following a 48 length defeat in a handicap chase at Cheltenham in January 2023, an absence of 609 days. Expecting a win may be fantasy to be fair, but he is reported to be as straight as they can get him at home, and racing off a mark of 139 this afternoon, he is potentially well-handicapped having won races over fences off marks of up to 160 if only they can bring him back to his best, which is not as impossible as it sounds when you remember he is still only an eight-year-old.
Sean’s Suggestion:
Rayevka each way 2.25pm Newmarket to very small stakes
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