ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
Having just returned from my mini break, I am still catching up on all the racing news (never a dull moment in this job), and this week I have been scrapping around and found very little. One thing I do want to at least mention is Greg Wood’s excellent piece in the Guardian on the 23rd September (https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2024/sep/23/labour-conference-fringe-event-may-be-turning-point-horse-racing-fortunes), which I strongly urge you to read. Now Greg is one of racings good guys as far as I am concerned, and I agree with everything he has written as it looks likely the government may well increase taxes for on-line slot-machines and casinos, and (hopefully) differentiate them from horse racing and other skills based gambling, something we (at the HBF) have been lobbying for since the start of the Gambling Act Review.
Nothing to talk about here you may well think, but we do have a concern about any knock-on effect because as much as we (and others) argue for racing to be ringfenced, the bookmakers seem adamant that they want to tie-in racing with the other more dangerous products, possibly looking to get racing’s support against the Gambling Commission, a tactic which has been pretty successful so far.
What we are worried about is any knock-on effect, and the potential for bookies to look to revise (downgrade) media rights deals and reduce sponsorship or cut bonuses to customers, and we will be sending out a press release to that effect shortly so those at the tip of the tree are aware of the possibilities.
Anyway, with a decent race meeting in Paris this weekend, we can cut to the chase and get on to the racing…
Saturday Racing
2.25pm Ascot
The weather had blown apart most of the better races in the UK this weekend which is a real shame, but I am happy enough to suggest Hamish for the Cumberland Lodge Stakes from Ascot, even in the presence of stablemate Al Aasy who is heading then early market after wins at Goodwood and Newbury on his last two starts. Rated 2lb inferior to my selection and meeting him at level weights here, he may have his work cut out on the predicted heavy ground having never won on anything worse than soft, and kept to quicker ground on his recent starts. Hamish, on the other hand, has won on some pretty atrocious ground in his career and he gets his conditions here, and as he has already won eight races at this level, and was only beaten a length by Luxembourg at Epsom in the Group One Coronation Cup at Epsom in May, there may be more wins to come from the now eight-year-old.
3.50pm Newmarket
The going at Newmarket is also of concern with soft ground and the potential for plenty of non-runners (two of the six in the Sun Chariot may head to Longchamp Sunday instead), but I am hoping the experience edge held by Wild Nature will see him home in front in the maiden at 3.50pm. Second in his Sandown debut and third at the same track on his only other start, the son of Kingman isn’t guaranteed to handle the soft ground anymore than his rivals, but when they come under pressure late on , he will at least be more aware of what is expected of him. His sire has an acceptable if not inspiring 21% strike rate on soft going, while his dam was second on heavy ground in a Group Three, giving us more hope, while his half-brother Whispering Dream won on soft and very soft building my confidence in his chances as I write.
4.00pm Longchamp
From the sublime to the ridiculous with so much high class racing today that sifting through to find the three best bets seems to have taken me forever. I had expected to be focussed on the Longchamp meeting from Paris but there is little value to be found at first glance, until you have a better look at the Prix de Royallieu where I can’t resist a SMALL each way bet on Port Fairy who is trading at 25/1 as I write. It is a rarity to see and Aidan O’Brien runner at such a big price regardless, but what caught my eye was the fact that the master trainer has three runners here, and my suggestion is the longest price of the trio despite being the pick of Ryan Moore – go figure? Back to the horse and she was a gutsy winner of the Ribbledale Stakes at Royal Ascot suggesting she has plenty of ability, and although beaten twice since, they used to think stamina was her strong point, and this mile and three-quarters may see her in a better light with first-time blinkers an interesting addition.
Sunday Racing
12.55pm Longchamp
We won’t get rich from backing the short priced Zarigana here, but she looks to be way way above average with the potential to become an absolute superstar. Sent off the 11/10 favourite for her Chantilly debut, she pulled four lengths clear at the line for an easy success that saw her go into many a notebook for future contests. How she was allowed to start at as big a price as 4/5 for her only other start is beyond me as she was given an educational ride by Mickael Barzalona from off tee pace to win by three lengths without really knowing she had been in a race. This is a step up in class against better opposition, but if she is good as we hope, she should be our first winner of the day.
2.05pm Longchamp
The Prix de l’Abbaye over five furlongs will always be a bit of a bun fight, but at 6/1 The Richard Hughes trained No Half Measures look an each way option to small stakes. A winer on heavy ground at Newbury last time out, Ryan Moore apparently got off her that day and suggested this as an ideal race for the daughter of Cable Bay, and although no good thing with Bradsell in opposition to name but one rival, the going may be the deciding factor and we know she handles it as well as any – and better than some.
3.20pm Longchamp
I feel almost morally obliged to tip something for the Arc but it really is a tricky one to call this year – and I have already backed Al Riffa at fancy prices so do I shore up with the same horse – or double up with another? For me, it is always about value and although I like Al Riffa (I have to say that really), I am a little wary that the going may be softer than ideal. Japanese raider Shin Emperor ran perhaps the best trial when third over an inadequate mile and a quarter in the Irish Champion Stakes to the powerhouse pairing of Economics and Auguste Rodin, and his amicable trainer insists all ground comes alike but he will never have encountered anything like this, leading me (reluctantly) to Look De Vega. The French Derby winner lost his unbeaten record when third to Sosie and Delius (who both re-oppose here), word is he was short of a gallop that day and that connections were actually delighted with his third place. Talks of a sparkling gallops last week may or may not be true, but they have been followed by plenty of market support, suggesting he is as ready as he will ever be.
Sean’s Suggestion:
Wild Nature to win 3.5pm Newmarket Saturday
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