ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN
I don’t like starting with bad news or sad news, but having had time to think, I really need to talk a little about the passing of racing journalist Alastair Down. A multiple winner of all sorts of journalist awards and an all-round nice guy. His devotion to our sport made us readers the lucky ones – he was such a wordsmith that I am 100% certain he could have turned his hand to any subject had he wanted to and I can add that reading his weekly column in what was the Sporting Life Weekender was a joy – and set me on my own path as a racing scribe. At the risk of sounding pompous, there are very few writers I have aspired to be over the years - Jeffrey Bernard, my good friend Paul Haigh, both geniuses in my eyes and both now passed, and I can only imagine the conversations they are all having about racing with Alastair now, wherever they may be – sad times indeed but a chance for someone to step forward and take the baton I suppose (not me by the way, I am not that delusional).
Meanwhile, City Of Troy gets this week’s award for ante-climax of the week - or perhaps the entire season? I will admit I got dragged into all the hype, remembering as I mentioned last week, that they had always felt he would handle the dirt as a son of Justify. Sorry Aidan, but I am not wearing the excuses given that they should have trained him to get out of the stalls faster to avoid a percentage of the kickback – isn’t that what they said BEFORE his Southwell gallop, i.e. they knew that fast starts by those around him could be an issue? There is a fabulous photo on the internet somewhere (assuming it hasn’t been altered of course) of City Of Troy with his eyes closed as he is getting hit in the face with plenty of dirt, and although I do not think he gave his true running in the circumstances, I cannot believe he is quite as good as his connections insist. I am actually amazed that when you look at the prize money involved (and the future breeding values) that the likes of Coolmore or Godolphin haven’t built themselves a dirt track to work them on at home to see who does or doesn’t take to the surface, but to be fair it is pretty easy for me to spend someone else’s money I suppose.
Looking to end with good news for a change, and I have long been an advocate of the Tote Placepot as a bet to consider – small stakes with the chances of decent winnings, and you don’t even need to find a winner! Most days the payouts are little more than “Ok” with £50 to £100 the norm, and the £2000 at Warwick last Tuesday a rarity, but everything paled into insignificance compared to Huntingdon on Sunday afternoon. Unplaced favourites in races two five and six saw a monster payout of £32,922.60 to £1 but it wasn’t to me – or I would be having a weekend off for a change! Naturally, our rivals the Australians like to outdo us at every opportunity, and the Melbourne Cup made one lucky punter a very rich man (or woman). Not the Placepot this time around, but a bet where you need to name the first four home in the correct order (or perms to cover any order), and whoever it was picked winner Knight’s Choice (90/1), Warp Speed 25/1, Okita Soushi 18/1, and Zardozi 13/1, with a A$100 bet returning (wait for it) A$3.2 million – or about £1,630,000 in our money. How much skill was involved only he or she will know, but luckier still (if not richer), was the punter in Victoria who also had the first four home, winning A$728,000 (£371,000 ish) from a “lucky dip” style ticket at his local club - with no thought needed whatsoever. As I can’t end with all positive, what that does remind us of is how we as punters are treated over here in the UK – we would not have got all the money the first punter did with most of the big bookies limiting racing to £1,000,000 payout, some at £500,000 or £250,000 – and others (Unibet) as low as £100,000 – go figure!
And the podcast is back – here https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2024/11/08/the-post-racing-podcast-08-11-24/
Saturday Racing
Wincanton 2.23pm
All jumps this Saturday to get into the swing of things on the countdown to Cheltenham, though I will come out in advance and say the small fields are an absolute shocker for the industry, and for us punters with the prospect of false run raxes and/or short priced favourites. The Rising Stars Novice Chase is a prime example, with over £44,000 to the winner – and just the five runners. Insurrection, Glynn and Boombawn all have a slight fitness edge after recent runs, while Soul Icon deserves a win after coming home second on his last four starts, but the interesting one has to be Ben Pauling’s Handstands, the winner of a point-to-point at Moira followed by his first three starts over hurdles. Outgunned on going that may have been too soft for him when last of six finishers in the Gallagher Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, he has his first start over fences in public here, and if he has schooled well (only his connections will know), he has a big engine and looks the sort to get better as he matures and strengthens.
Aintree 2.40pm
The Grand Sefton Chase over two miles five furlongs is an interesting handicap and one where I feel it may be time to break out the stats (boring maybe, but if it finds the winner, who cares?). Looking though the last 15 years (14 runnings) we are yet to see a winner priced bigger than 25/1, while all the winners had come home in the first eight last time out – unless they failed to finish. Eight and nine year olds have won 10 of the 14 between them, though we have seen winners aged six, seven, ten, and eleven so all things seem possible. Thirteen of the 14 winners were officially rated 130 to 144, while none had raced in the last 15 days or had been off for over a year. None had raced more than three times this season, and if we use that to put a line through any who fail to qualify, we end up with a new shortlist (using current prices, of course) of Outlaw Peter, Sure Touch, and Frero Banbou. Of those remaining three, Outlaw Peter represents trainer Paul Nicholls, who has won this three times and placed with three others in the last 14 runnings, and if he improves for summer wind-surgery of some kind, he looks a sensible each way call at the 10/1 freely available as I write with Freddie Gingell excellent value for his 3lb claim from the saddle.
Wincanton 2.55pm
Here we go again, the Elite Hurdle worth over £40,000 to the winner and to be raced on Good ground and we have a field of four – its just embarrassing for a Saturday afternoon. Rubaud won this last year for Paul Nicholls when rated 150 but he arrives rated 3lb lower now, but still has to give all his rivals 6lb here which could prove a big ask for a short-priced jolly. Irish raider Aspire Tower is officially rated 1lb his superior (as is Brentford Hope for Harry Derham) and was an easy winner at Punchestown on his return to the fray last month. Henry de Bromhead looks to be pot hunting to me and with a lively front-runner on his hands, he looks a bit of value at 6/1 or thereabouts if he runs to his best.
Wincanton 3.30pm
Everyone loves the Badger Beer Chase from Wincanton and for some, it signals the start of the National Hunt season proper – whatever that means? Paul Nicholls has trained four of the last seven winners suggesting he likes to target this, and that makes Mofasa more interesting even if he was pulled up last time out at Ayr. His one and only win over fences was off exactly this mark so we know he has the ability, but I still prefer to look elsewhere. Seven to nine-year-olds have dominated this in recent years and seem a sensible age group to start with, but as that only “loses” two from the list, it isn’t a lot of help to be honest. I know I probably shouldn’t but I am going to take a risk to very small each way stakes on The Big Breakway as the now nine-year-old has his first start for Anthony Charlton. In his prime with the Tizzards I remember talking to Colin who was confident he was a Gold Cup horse in the making, but sadly it hasn’t worked out that way and his last win was back in November 2020. He has run well since with places at Chepstow, Haydock and Kempton, but he has slipped down the handicap from a high of 151 to a lowly 135 here. There is little doubt that IF a new regime can get him back to anything near to his best he is well-handicapped here, and for pennies I am willing to risk some of my cash in the hope that is the case.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Salamanca 8.30pm Chelmsford Saturday – highly regarded three-year-old having his first start in a handicap and kept back for a winter campaign after getting jarred up in the Lingfield Derby trial.
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