I have been forced to dig pretty deep for some news stories this week so those of a low boredom threshold may want to look away now. Once again, the prices at racecourses have managed to hog plenty of headlines with a £7.50 pint of Guinness in a paper cup (sacrilege) trending on social media. Naturally we join the vicious circle of racecourses blaming outside caterers who in turn blame the racecourses for their pitch costs etc like a snake grabbing its own tail, but the bottom line is, the blame game simply does not cut it anymore, and racing needs to at least acknowledge that it is competing for the leisure pound in an era of financial awareness as we all need to cut costs. Add in a customer allegedly being told to throw away their sandwiches after a bag search (is it 1984 Orwell style), and things go from bad to worse – make the food pleasant and affordable and no-one would even try to smuggle in their own food, what an outrageous solution that would be.
Meanwhile, I read a fascinating article on the Racing Post this week that seemed to answer an awful lot of questions. Racing has always had a “chicken and egg” scenario – who is taking the money out of the sport, racecourses or bookmakers – read the answer here
Let’s read that out loud shall we – bookmakers make a combined profit of £3 billion a year (not a typo), and although that includes other sports and presumably casinos, poker, slots, etc, that is an eye-watering sum. It really is about time they were held to some kind of account and at least forced to be transparent about how much they actually make from racing (they like to claim it is small beer these days but I am far from convinced), so that racing can see whether they ought to be paying more – like it or not.
Lastly, I rarely manage to find a good news story (is that me or the sport, I wonder), but congratulations to ARC for increasing the prize money at Doncaster. I appreciate and understand the views of the naysayers who are instantly telling the World it is not enough, but surely it is a move in the right direction? The sad fact is that no-one has a money-making machine they can turn on and off at will and this has to be welcomed as a very positive move (and perhaps an acknowledgement that past prize money levels were insufficient), and if it is warmly welcomed who knows, perhaps other racecourses will benefit over the months ahead.
Tired of reading? Go to our podcast here https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2022/10/28/ahoy-senor-its-a-bravemansgame-yep-its-the-charlie-hall-and-much-more/
where I chew the fat with Ron Robinson of Post Racing and Worldofsport fame
Saturday
Ayr 1.23pm
A two-mile novice hurdle to start out selections this week and with no previous runnings to work with, we have to rely on a combination of market position and the formbook to draw our conclusions, though I do note there were four Irish entries at the early declaration stage and only the Gordon Elliott trained Nonbinding, a Navan maiden winner, stands his ground. He clearly has an experience edge over his rivals with five starts over hurdles, but he has to give 6lb to Donald McCain’s Glory Bridge which may give him the narrowest of edges. Pulled up on his only start in a point-to-point, he then changed hands for 40,000Euros which says more about the madness of the markets than anything else, and repaid £2,614 of that with a bumper win at Sedgefield in March. He was as green as grass that day and will need to take a step forward on his hurdling bow, but in a race with very little depth at first glance, that may be all he needs.
Galway 2.53pm
From Scotland to Ireland for our second race and a two and a quarter mile novice chase won by Joseph O’Brien’s Global Equity last season. Six and seven-year-olds have taken seven of the eight runnings, and we are yet to see a winner priced bigger than 9/2, with three winning favourites. Trainer Henry De Bromhead won this three times in a row from 2016 to 2018 and I think he can strike again in 2022 with Guily Billy, a horse of untapped potential. So far the son of Coastal Path has taken one of his two point-to-points and one of his two races over hurdles with a 25 length success at Tramore in December last year, after which he ran at Punchestown in the Grade Two Moscow Flyer Hurdle where he was pulled up injured. A £310,000 purchase he has always looked a chaser in the making, and if he is fully wound up for his return to action then I expect a big showing here, hopefully a winning one.
Wetherby 3.00pm
Proper racing as some would say with a three mile hurdle where some of those hoping to get competitive in the World Hurdle at Cheltenham next March will be strutting their stuff early in the new season. Six runners on a Saturday for a prize of close to £30,000 isn’t what I had hoped for, but it does look a good opportunity for Sporting John to get his season off to a winning start. Although successful over fences at Sandown in the Scilly Isle Chase his jumping let him down after that when falling at Cheltenham and pulling up at Aintree after which connections sensibly sent him back over the smaller obstacles last season. First time out he won at Cheltenham which he followed with a fourth at the same track and then a win at Warwick in a light campaign, but more importantly, he clearly goes best when fresh having scored on his point-to-point debut in 2019, his hurdling debut eight months later, his fencing debut after a three month break last year, and again at the start of last season.
Wetherby 3.35pm
One for the purists next with the Charlie Hall Chase over three miles which will see the reappearance of Gold Cup hopefuls with £100,000 in total prize fund up for grabs. The betting suggests it is a straight match between Bravemansgame and Ahoy Senor, with the score currently 1-1 between them after meetings at Kempton and Aintree, and the current thinking is that this track will be more suitable for the Nicholls horse, hence his position at the head of the market. That may well be the case, and I also get the feeling that he may be easier to get fit than his giant of a rival whose main aim has to be Cheltenham, but in all honestly, this is a race I will sit back and savour without financial involvement as it really could go either way.
Ascot 3.50pm
From seasoned chasers to novice hurdlers for our next contest, and a race where top yards have been successful more often than not with Paul Nicholls (2) and Nicky Henderson (4) responsible for six of the last 10 winners. Holetown Hero represents Paul Nicholls in 2022 and he could go well if he can build on his bumper form after a wind-operation, but he has a bit to find on the book and I see this being fought out elsewhere. Invincible Nao is the unknown quantity having scored at Auteuil by nine lengths on his last start for trainer Emmanuel Clayeux before changing hands for 155,000Euros, and he could go well for Gary Moore, though he does have to give 9lb or more to all his rivals, with the first-time hood another concern for me. Fancy Stuff gets lumps of weight as a mare and may surprise a few here, but I have come down on the side of Leave Of Absence. I am a massive fan of jockey Tom Cannon who rarely gets the credit he deserves, and with the Chris Gordon stable in among the winners everything looks positive. Third in his only point-to-point, he won his first two bumpers at Kempton and Newbury before a good third in the Grade Two bumper at Aintree in April, and if he can transfer that form to hurdles here he ought to be able to see off all of these.
Newmarket 3.58pm
The Flat season is dragging to an end kicking and screaming, and the soft ground at Newmarket may well continue to see some strange results, along with the fact that many of these horses have been on the go for many months now, and may be ready to be turned out for the winter. It really looks a tough one to call with both Dream Of Love and Queen Fleur arriving here unbeaten and Conservationist clearly on an upward curve. Any of the three could win and do so easily but on form alone I have no choice but to side with Dermot Weld’s Keep In Touch. A slow burner so far with a fourth followed by a third and then a maiden win, she was perhaps unlucky on her last start when beaten less than a length in third at The Curragh in the Group Three Weld Park Stakes over seven furlongs. Jockey Chris Hayes dropped his whip that day which may have made the difference, and dropped in class over a furlong further, I am thinking he will be out to make amends for that error here.
Newmarket 4.33pm
At the time of writing (early declarations) Charlie Appleby seems pretty keen to win this contest with three entries, but he has now decided to rely on two of the trio with Ottoman Fleet and Royal Fleet (so be careful with your bets). Of the two, James Doyle’s mount would be my preferred option having won six of his 10 career starts, with two of those on Good to Soft going, suggesting he may handle the cut in the ground expected today. He can go well but it may be worth taking an each-way risk on Nobel, Andrew Baldings’s unbeaten colt who won at Kempton on the all-weather in December last year and followed up with a win at Epsom over this trip in September. Although upped in class considerably here, he is entitled to improve for his first start in 10 months, and as a son of Lope De Vega there is every reason to expect him to handle this ground better than most.
Wetherby 4.45pm
I love to throw a handicap in now and again if only to fry my tiny brain, and this week we have a three-mile chase just to make life that bit more difficult. Looking at the stats for the last decade I note that nine have carried 11 stone four or more, nine have been priced at 6/1 or shorter, and eight have been aged eight or younger and that’s your lot. Of those remaining after we use those as our early guidelines, and to my amazement (and remembering I only have a tissue price to work with sadly), that gets rid of nine of the 10 runners and leaves me with a glaringly obvious selection. Top-weight Ashfield Paddy is the one remaining runner that fits the bill and he has to be of some interest on his first start for Michael Scudamore having previously been in training with Jonjo O’Neill. Last seen winning by a couple of lengths over a furlong further at Hereford, his second win from nine starts over fences, I cannot pretend he stands out as the good thing the statistics suggest, having not been seen since March, but he may have more to offer this year as a lightly raced eight-year-old, and if the stats don’t lie he clearly has every chance of a third success.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Guily Billy 2.53pm Galway
Sporting John 3.00pm Wetherby
Comments