A bit of a shorter article than normal this week (do I hear cheering?), with spare time at an absolute premium this week thanks to way too much work (sympathy not expected). That said, I cannot let the week pass without a passing mention of the great Ouija Board, who passed away this week at the age of 21. Those of you too young to remember her will need to be told that she won 10 of her 22 starts, over three and a half million pounds in prize money (£3,510,682 to be exact) and took seven Group one’s including the Epsom Oaks by seven lengths, and the Breeders’ Cup Fillies and Mares in both 2004 and 2006. My own personal memory of her was at Newmarket in 2005 when I was co-hosting a day at the races with Alan Brazil and we previewed the Group Three race she was running in. Unsurprisingly I tipped her and when Alan asked who was her danger I replied “there isn’t one” – stunned silence from Alan (a collectors moment that one), and everyone rushed out and put their bets on (9/4 at the time). She strolled home by over two lengths at 11/8 and all I can tell you is the Tote had to send out for more cash to pay everyone out and I didn’t need to buy another drink – happy days!
Meanwhile, it is hard to knock Ascot putting up their prize money for 2023 – but is that a case of the rich getting richer? In all honesty their prize money has never been poor in my lifetime, and lets face it, targeting a horse at Royal Ascot has nothing to do with the prize money and everything to do with the kudos. What should be happening (I bet it isn’t) is other courses should be talking to the Ascot executive to find out how they have manged to put their prize money up, because if all courses could follow their example with similar percentage increases, owners and trainers might stop whining for a week or two.
Lastly I see the BHA have appointed a handicapping ombudsman in David Cleary who will have Ian Heitman as his deputy. I have no issues with the concept when connections feel a horse has been hard done by, but I do have to add that as far as I know they are few and far between so whether this came out on a slow news day is up for discussion. I know both gentlemen concerned and have nothing but belief in their abilities, but if they are paid by the hour I doubt there will be enough appeals to keep food on the table or the lights on!
Fancy getting your ears bent – join us on the podcast here https://theworldofsport.co.uk/2022/12/02/ouija-board-prize-money-the-handicap-ombudsman-and-more-saturday-winners-than-you-can-shake-a-stick-at/ for new and views for the weekend.
On to the racing:
Saturday
11.45am Aintree
It has got to the stage where I am apprehensive before I even look at the Saturday racing with so many small fields, but as things stand we have nine declared, a minor miracle judged on recent weeks. Pleasant Man was pretty decent on the Flat reaching a mark of 101 at his peak but his one start over hurdles saw him pulled up at Kempton after a lacklustre disapply but it would be folly to write him off just yet, and he is worth a market watch ahead of his first start following wind surgery. He may even provide the sternest opposition to Strong Leader, second to the unbeaten Encanto Bruno at Cheltenham in October and an odds-on winner over hurdles at Uttoxeter last month. His hurdling left a lot to be desired but there was nothing wrong with the end result, and if he learns from that experience, he seems by far the likeliest winner here.
12.55pm Aintree
Betting on races restricted to three-year-old fillies doesn’t sound that sensible but I note that five of the last 10 winners of this race were sent off at the head of the market, so perhaps its easier than I thought? Obsessed With You will make sure that the Paul Nicholls trained Dixon Cove won’t get her own way at the head of affairs but she may not have the gears to cope with the French import who strolled home hard held on her British debut at Hereford. That was a maiden hurdle so she needs to step up in Listed class but she looked the part and may turn out to be a decent purchase even with a price tag of 190,000 Euros.
1.30pm Aintree
Only the five runners but an absolute cracker of a race, and a reminder to me of just how good it is to see old friends taking each other on over fences or hurdles. Ahoy Senor is a personal favourite, and would win this if he is anywhere near his best, but he put in a poor run at Wetherby when 40 lengths last in the Charlie Hall, and at 5/4 I just cannot get involved. He may (probably will) make a fool of me now, but I will have a far smaller bet on Sounds Russian who doesn’t need to improve too much to take a hand. A good old fashioned chaser who can take a fence with him on occasion, he has the heart of a lion as proved with a win on his first start in over six month at Kelso, and with just the six runs over fences under his belt he may have more to offer.
1.45pm Sandown
As a massive fan of Harry Fry, who kindly showed me around his yard when I had a meeting with Lorcan Murtagh last Sunday (good lad Lorcan who thoroughly deserves a lot more rides), I will be hoping for another good run from Boothill here, but it seems unrealistic to think he can get anywhere near to Jonbon barring accidents. Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old was brilliant over hurdles with just the one defeat when second to Constitution Hill at Cheltenham, but may go on to be even better over fences if his debut at Warwick is anything to go by. He strolled home by seven lengths and is now a short-priced favouriter for the Arkle Trophy in March, though we won’t get rich by backing him at odds-on today I am sorry to say.
2.55pm Sandown
If this isn’t the race of the day I don’t know what is with the 2021 Arkle winner Shishkin as well as the 2022 winner Edwardstone as well as Paul Nicholls’ impressive Exeter winner Greaneteen who holds a potential fitness advantage over his rivals. This really does look like a dress rehearsal for the Champion Chase in March but we are second-guessing fitness levels which means my bets will be limited accordingly. Shishkin blotted his copybook when pulled up in the Champion Chase this year when the soft ground was trotted out as the reason, but his earlier efforts marked him down as a class act and I am willing to forgive him one poor run. He is reported to be schooling well at home at Seven Barrows, and as he historically goes well fresh, now may be the best time to catch him.
3.30pm Sandown
Time to dig into the details for our obligatory Saturday handicap and the London National over three miles five furlongs looks a decent contest and with 11 runners currently declared, we can look for an each way option. I have every one of the 17 runnings to work with on my database so here we go looking to see if past performances can point us in the direction of the winner, or at least one with a decent chance. 15 of the 17 winners (88%) finished in the first five last time out, and all of them completed, and if we use those stats as our opening gambit, we can lose five of these which makes life a lot easier. We haven’t seen a winner priced over 14/1 which potentially loses one more, and lo and behold, we only have five horses to work with. Those are (for those interested), Quick Wave, Revels Hill, Gwencily Berbas, Eclair De Guye, and In Rem. Looking at their trainers next and none of them have won this race (sadly), but of the five, I would have to go for Revels Hill. The seven-year-old ran a blinder over a woefully inadequate two miles five at Ascot last month when coming home a four-length second, and with that run likely to put him spot-on, this could be his to lose – though be warned, we all know I am a fan of trainer Harry Fry, so I may be looking through rose-tinted glasses.
6.50pm Wolverhampton
I can’t say I expected to end with a Class Two on the all-weather but this Fast-Track Qualifier looks a competitive event and one well worth a second glance. As we all know by now the formbook cannot be totally relied on when it comes to improving juveniles, but you would have to hope that Shaquille won’t be too far away in this field. A winner on his debut at York he found the company too hot next time out in the Group Three Acomb Stakes but bounced back at same venue when making all to come home alone at the same venue. He will need to improve again, and won’t get his own way on the front today either with the hat-trick seeking Michaela’s Boy in the field, but he gets 3lb from that rival which may yet make all the difference.
Sean’s Suggestions
Walking On Air 3.15pm Aintree
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