There is (sadly) only one place to start this week and that is with the farce that was Epsom’s Dash last Saturday when the stalls malfunctioned. The first thing I want to say is that things will happen, people do make mistakes (even me!), and equipment will suffer mechanical failure, and I have no argument that this was all a terrible mistake. For those unaware of what I am talking about, some stalls basically opened ahead of the others – and in the fastest five furlongs in the World it is more than reasonable to suggest that was crucial to the horses chances. Front runners, including favourite Live In The Moment who missed the start thanks to said stalls failures lost lengths at the start and had no chance – yet the result was allowed to stand and thousands of unhappy punters lost their bets through no fault of their own. Amusingly, and with thanks to my friend Simon Rowlands for pointing it out, they BHA reported nothing wrong after watching the race in real time – but slow it down and you can see some lost up to half a second at the off and that is a game changing figure. Under their own rules the race should have been declared void, but I would have accepted those in the stalls affected being declared non-runners and with the winner a 25/1 shot, there would have been no need for a rule 4 deduction from those lucky enough to back the winner – so why wasn’t that even considered?
Meanwhile, those who think it is all about British racing need a reality check. With thanks to my mate Andy who must have been watching the French racing from Longchamp, have a look at this if you get a second https://twitter.com/obmracing/status/1666902307026399232?s=49&t=2KKgMhsb_8rCSb8PqwPcNg and try not to laugh (assuming you didn’t have a bet). I don’t want to give it away completely here but suffice to say the race was won in a time 2 seconds slower than standard suggesting those who placed did little more than raise a trot!
In other news, Oliver Sherwood has announced he will quit training in his own right after 40 years or so of training with the number of horses in his care making the job financially untenable. Luckily for us he won’t be walking away from the sport but will be taking up a new role as assistant to Harry Derham which I suspect is a very wise move for both parties, with the voice of experience aligned to youthful exuberance hopefully looking like a match made in heaven and a stable I will be watching even more carefully over the years ahead – best of luck to all concerned and may there be plenty of winners for us all to celebrate.
Next stop is the Oaks and the Derby, and the age old question – are both races a shadow of their former selves – or have we witnessed some new superstars in 2023? Starting with the fillies and just like every year, we won’t know the true value of the form until later in the year, but you would have to say that Souk Sister showed a devastating turn of foot to land the fillies’ classic – and that Frankie Dettori ought to reconsider retirement after such a stand out ride! With the odds-on jolly in second (Savethelastdance) some will big up the form – but with a 40/1 shot in third, and 50/1 chances in fourth and fifth the jury is still out, though I look forward to her testing her mettle against the colts later in the season. As for the Derby, I tipped the winner (9/2) and mentioned the second and third (66/1 and 12/1) and I won’t be doing that again in this lifetime, but again, does that devalue the form? Once again I bow to the time figures of Simon Rowlands (https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sectional-spotlight/06-June-2023/2023-classic-crop-looking-classy) and some stunning figures to make a case that he is a class act. One look at the table (from the link) tells us he ran the third fastest time since 1965 from the home turn, bettered only by Galileo and Nijinsky, and the fastest final two furlongs since accurate records from 1990, and as this was the joint 12th fastest Derby on record, he wasn’t sprinting off a slow early pace either. Naturally, Aidan O’Brien has been bigging up the performance (the only Derby winning son of Deep Impact is worth who knows how much as a stallion), but on this occasion be may be proved correct – though if he heads to Ireland he will have a fight on his hands with the runner-up almost certain to improve for his first start since October last year, and the (admittedly remote) possibility that impressive French Derby winner Ace Impact could join them.
Lastly for this week’s news the very sad announcement that Singapore will stop racing in October next year – and redevelop the site at Kranji. They have always suffered from illegal gambling which has choked their income stream (UK racing take note with the gambling review), while they have also suffered from issues regarding advertising with racing seen as a gambling medium (and other sports allowed to do as they wish) meaning reduced attendances, but it is still a real shame for those who love racing worldwide like me to see a complete jurisdiction go under – and so many jobs disappear overnight for the sake of a housing development and a new shopping Mall, though I am hearing that some (not all) may be able to find employment in South Korea who are an up and coming nation in the sport.
On to the racing…
Saturday Racing
1.15pm Haydock
An all-age Listed sprint over five furlongs kicks off the ITV televised racing this week and with 10 different trainers winning the last 10 renewals, and horses aged from four to 10, where do we start? We do know that we haven’t seen a winner priced bigger than 14/1 in the last 26 years, and that no horse has won from a stall higher than 10 for what this is worth, but after that, it’s back to the formbook. I do like the booking of Ryan Moore by Keith Dalgleish to ride Prince Of Pillo and I do expect a big run from the son of Prince Of Lir who was last seen coming home third in the Group Three Cornwallis takes at Newmarket last year, but this is his first start of the season, and we haven’t seen a winner from his age group since 2012. That is just about enough to put me off and I have noticed some good money for Equilateral since the runners were announced, with trainer Charlie Hills sweet on his chances. Age doesn’t seem to catch up with the sprinters as much as others, and the eight-year-old has already won seven races, with a length second in the Group Two Temple Stakes here last time out the best form on offer here.
1.50pm Haydock
With only the five previous runnings of this contest we will avoid the statistics for a change, though David O’Meara has won two of those, meaning that Nomadic Empire has to be worth a second look with Neil Callan booked to ride and off a mark of 89 when he has won better races off far higher marks and he could surprise a few, though I have finally come down on the side of Raatea, though it was anything but easy. Julie Camacho trains the son of Invincible Spirit who has won twice over this trip, the latest off 2lb lower in June last year, but he looked as if he was coming back to his best when fifth off 1lb higher in a better race last month at Newmarket. Cheekpieces are tried for the first time here to look for a spot of improvement, and at a double figure price I am hoping he can hit the frame at the very least.
2.05pm Beverley
With winners at all prices up to 40/1 all things seem possible here, but that comes as no great shock when we are dealing with lightly raced two-year-olds. The majority of winners have come from a single figure draw, and 23 of the 24 winners came from the first eight in the betting, while none of them raced in the last seven days. That only removes a grand total of TWO from the declared runners list, so that was a waste of time for all concerned! Midnight Affair heads the market after her debut second at Newmarket when close to two lengths adrift of Soprano, but other than the fact that she was sent off favourite, we don’t know how good the winner is, while the third was beaten the same distance next time out in a Class Four maiden, and nothing in behind has come even close to franking the form. She could of course improve considerably, but at 5/4 I can afford to give her a miss and have come down on the side of Never Fear as an each way alternative. The daughter of No Nay Never was well bought at 70,000 Guineas for the sire of the moment, and although weak in the market, she made all to come home alone on her only start at Wolverhampton at the rewarding odds of 12/1. That suggests she will improve considerably to me, and if she can slip this field over a furlong shorter, she won’t be stopping when they try to reel her in.
2.25pm Haydock
One running and one four-year-old winner here but that tells us FA I am sorry to say, and it seems more sensible to look at course form, distance form – and who has won a similar race off a similar mark in the past. Get Shirty and Prydwen are both C&D winners, while early favourite Cumulonimbus is a course winner and a distance winner, but he was all out to score by a neck at Newmarket, and has another 3lb from the handicapper now. He is also up not one but two classes, and although Good Show has never raced here, I prefer the form of his Hamilton success. He also only scored by a neck, but that was after being produced to perfection by P J McDonald, and if he gets a clear run here I expect him to pounce fast and late once again.
2.40pm Beverley
This is the very first running of this contest so we start with a clean slate, and for once I am going with the favourite when David Allan rides Ugo Gregory for Tim Easterby. Three of his eight career wins have been over this course and distance, the latest in September 2021 off a mark 10lb lower, but better still he showed signs of a return to form when only beaten a neck here last time out. He seems to handle any ground thrown at him, and is well drawn in the one stall, suggesting another big run is on the cards at one of his favourite tracks.
3.00pm Haydock
In 20 runnings of this Group Three contest we are yet to see a winner priced larger than 12/1, and with William Haggas winning two of the last four, we ought to start with Sea Silk Road. She didn’t live up to expectations on her return when only sixth at York in he Middleton Stakes but she raced far too freely that day and needs to settle before she will get back to winning ways. What we do know is that she is held in very high regard at home in Newmarket, and that she is expected to have a decent season as she matures and strengthens, and if she doesn’t pull too hard here, I am expecting her to come out on top. Modaara could be anything after strolling home in her maiden and is one to watch, while Timelock is weighted to get the better of Mimikyu on the form of their meeting at Haydock last June.
3.15pm Beverley
Nine runnings, nine different trainers, and nine different jockeys – it doesn’t get much tougher than this! Four winning favourites will encourage those who like to bet at the head of the market, and with only one horse successful priced larger than 6/1, it could be folly to think too far outside the box. Once again those drawn low are very likely to have an advantage over the rest of the field but the prices already reflect that, so its back to the formbook once again. None of these ran in races of any real significance last time out but it seems fair to suggest everyone knew that Cuban Slide was the one to be on at Musselburgh on his only start to date, and the son of Havana Grey didn’t let anyone down when strolling home by nine lengths at odds of 8/13. This is obviously tougher, but he did prove he has plenty of ability, and even at the current odds of 11/4 he still looks pretty good value. The one that intrigues me is the Roger Fell/Sean Murray trained Mehigburn, making his debut in a race of this standard for a stable not exactly known for tilting at windmills, and it will be interesting to see how he gets on for future reference.
3.35pm Haydock
Stats time again as we try to hunt down the winner of this Group Three over seven furlongs, and with 25 runnings to work with, hopefully we can spot a trend or two. Every winner so far came out of stall nine or lower (useless in a six runner field) all who had an mark were rated 106 or above (we lose Gorak), none had raced in the last seven days (no changes) and 24 came from the first six in the betting at the off (six runners) – well that was a waste of time! Ryan Moore has ridden the winner of this three times from six attempts and placed on one other so that suggests we can expect a big run from Australian raider The Astrologist, who is here for Royal Ascot but being kept busy between now and then. Twice a winner over this trip and certainly bred for it, he was last seen coming home seventh in the Clipper Stakes at York but may be better judged on his head second to Danyah in the Group One Al Quoz Sprint in Dubai on World Cup night, and if he can match that effort, he really ought to win here.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Cuban Slide 3.15pm Beverley
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