Some may have noticed that my article was conspicuous by its absence last week, but when there is so little racing to choose from (ditto the worthwhile news), I thought I a little furlough (seems to be the in word at present) was in order, so I had a day off.
Despite missing the odds against win of my old pal Beauty Generation in Hong Kong, the odds on Aethero came home stone cold in the big sprint, so we didn’t lose out on too much profit, though it will be interesting to see if we can match or better that this weekend.
Racing politics take centre stage this week (no surprise there in the absence of UK and Irish racing), with proposals put forward for the resumption of British racing, albeit behind closed doors. We are all acutely aware of how much this is costing the industry and how we need to get back on track sooner rather than later, but not at the risk to the safety of either the participants, or those working back at the yards - finding the appropriate balance was never going to be easy.
The problem I can foresee (and I have spoken off the record with a few trainers) is the (understandable) lack of a concrete return date. If I had a classy three-year-old who I planned to aim at the 2000 Guineas (for example), how do I train him to peak at the right time when I have no idea when that time will be? Work him hard ahead of a late May date only to find it is moved to June, try again and see it moved to July – that is just not the way it works with some of the more fragile thoroughbreds so if we do kick off next month behind closed doors as planned, expect plenty of shock results with horse fitness an absolute lottery (and I haven’t won that yet either). Race planning is currently “out of stock” leaving the smaller trainers wondering where their next winner is coming from with long range (potentially profitable) targets simply impossible to second guess, and maximum fields expected to be the norm when we do get going again, but as long as the BHA and others are working for the better of the sport (and not the bookmakers), then I suppose I just have to have faith in the powers that be – which is clearly something new for most of us!
On to more positive news (I do not mean to be a naysayer, more of a realist in my book), and we do have some international racing this weekend to get our teeth in to, though bets should be kept to a minimum as we pursue the Australian and Hong Kong form. Randwick start us off early in the morning UK time and I have to say, it’s impossible to knock any card consisting of three Group twos and four Group Ones regardless (with three other contests the racing press here in the UK don’t even bother giving a mention). Of course I will be cheering on all the Brit challengers who may well take to the predicted soft going better than some of the locals, but whether that makes them sensible betting mediums is to be decided.
My best bet (yep, there is one) runs in the opener at 2.35am UK time (set your alarm, or better still put the bet on before your cup of cocoa) when I am all over Postcode who looked to be getting the hang of things last time here when coming away from his field when dropped to a more realistic class at Hawkesbury. That will have helped his mental state and from a good draw in the five stall he can make all or most of the running here to come home alone.
William Haggas could have a good day (again) with Addeybb in with a solid run expected in the 6.55am but I narrowly prefer the chances of stable companion Young Rascal in the previous race at 6.15am. Three times a Group three winner here in the UK (at Chester and twice at Newbury), he got off the mark down under at the first attempt when running on well over the mile and a half at Rosehill to take down a solid looking handicap. Although yet to try the two miles he faces today, he certainly wasn’t stopping last time out, and with soft ground form as well, he should take all the stopping with Tom Marquand once again in the saddle.
I do also fancy Funstar in the 7.35am but I can’t make a suggestion in every race and we have Hong Kong on Sunday to look forward to, so it’s time to move on to Sha Tin. Not the best racing ever seen at one of my favourite venues, with a Class Two handicap the best on offer, so maybe we ought to limit ourselves to just the one horse just in case. It seems safe to suggest that the ex Ger Lyons trained Beauty Smile will improve for his first run since arriving with Tony Cruz, but his class may well be enough to see him through in the seven furlong handicap due off at 10.10am on Sunday morning. Third to Degraves, and only beaten a length in the Group Three Eyrefield Stakes in late October over further, the son of Free Eagle has room to improve after just the five career starts which includes a win at Listed level, and with Zac Purton booked to ride, we can expect a decent showing at this level with even more to come over the months ahead.
Sean’s Suggestions:
Postcode 2.35am UK time Royal Randwick (NAP) Saturday
Young Rascal 6.15am Royal Randwick Saturday
Beauty Smile 10.10am Sha Tin Sunday
Comments