It has certainly been a very strange and sad week in the world of horse racing with the loss of The Queen felt by everyone in the industry, and quite frankly, the sport will never be the same for many of us. I don’t have the answer, but will her colours be retired ,or will they transfer to King Charles III, but being honest, it seems unlikely that they ever attract the same interest that they have in the past? Many of the attendees at Royal Ascot go in the hope of glimpsing the Queen – but will they want to see Charles as much – I’m afraid I don’t believe they will for a moment. Rumour has it that Camilla will take over the horse racing side of things but the British people have long memories, and although she is a lot more accepted now than she was a few years ago, she has an impossible job if she wants to garner even 10% of the adulation her Majesty had from most if not all of her subjects. Sad times indeed (though I feel racing should have gone ahead, a period of silence would have been impeccably overserved and a fitting tribute), but none of us know what the future holds and we need to move on, albeit while wiping away a tear or two.
“Horsepower” arrives on Amazon Prime shortly and is a “must watch” for those of us interested in the sport. Set in the Andrew Balding yard, I gather it will focus on the day-to-day running of a top stable, and it has the opportunity to introduce newcomers to the sport if it shows us all in appositive light. Although completely unscripted, the lowlight has to be jockey Oisin Murphy testing positive for cocaine (oops), but we all wanted a warts n all version, and here it is. I am quietly confident I will learn plenty from watching it and I am looking forward to the first episode (September 23rd apparently), though knowing some in the yard (no names), there will either be plenty of beeped out words, or an impossible instruction of no swearing when the cameras are rolling!
Meanwhile, as await Baeed’s last race in the Champion Stakes at Ascot, his title of best racehorse in the Word is under serious threat after the exploits of Flightline over the pond in the US of A. The $1,000,000 son of Tapit remains unbeaten after four starts, three at Grade One level (their version of Group One), the latest with a 20-length win in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar with Dubai World Cup winner Country Grammer following him home. Just like the discussions we all have about Baeed and Frankel, the Americans are starting to compare the three-year-old with the legendary Secretariat, and that doesn’t happen very often. The assumption is he will next run in the Breeders’ Cup Classic possibly followed by the Dubai World Cup, whereas I just hope he stays in training so we can see just how good he really is. Just like buses it seems as if good horses come long in twos with Cave Rock one of the best juveniles in many a year. Trainer by controversial trainer Bob Baffert, the son of Arrogate smashed the stakes course record over the seven furlongs coming home in an official time of 1:20:99 breaking the time set in 2004 by Declan’s Moon, and only 0.99 sec off the overall record set in 1999 by the three-year-old Solar Launch. When you add in the fact that he made his own running after a furlong and was only having his second start, you have to wonder hope good he can become if he stays sound and I am certainly looking forward to his attacks on the American triple crown next season.
Lastly for the chit-chat, I note that the Jockey Club are continuing with their application for a new all-weather track at Newmarket, which seem strange when at the same time they have been backing the call for less fixtures. I can certainly see the benefit as a training base American style with the possibility of trainers being based at the track in the years ahead, but I cannot remember the last time a Newmarket card was called off and could thus be switched to the all-weather track, so they must be expecting a new set of winter fixtures, either in addition to those already in place, or at the expense of other fixtures which ARC will never take lying down, and that is an odds on certainty!
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On to the racing:
Saturday
1.40pm Newbury
In a race formerly (laughingly) known as an Arc Trial, this mile and three furlong event has attracted a reasonable field but be warned, we haven’t seen a winning favourite since back in 2014, so this contest is not the punter’s friend. Sir Michael Stoute has won two of the last eight runnings suggesting Silk Stone, who won this last year, could go well, but I remember watching Siskany’s latest start where the four-year-old cruised throughout in Riyadh before fading in to third when tried over a mile and seven furlongs, which he didn’t stay after racing too freely too early. Earlier wins over a mile and a half at Newmarket and a mile and six at Meydan suggest he has both speed and stamina, and if he is back refreshed after seven months off, he could be the one to lead these home.
1.55pm Ayr
Seven of the last ten winners of the Listed Doonside Cup have travelled North from Newmarket or Lambourn with Andrew Balding and Saeed Bin Suroor responsible for two winners each, though Mark Johnston took it last year, as well as in 2014 with Sennockian Star. Amazingly, not one of those stables have a representative here, though I did seriously consider Newmarket raider Royal Champion, who won’t be far away if they don’t go too fast from the off. If I know that the jockeys should, in which case an each way punt on Phantom Flightcould be the sensible play. He was very impressive when winning by five lengths at York last month, and although that was a handicap he has been out up 10lb for that victory and deserves to take his chance in this better race. Three wins from five starts with places in the other two make him a model of consistency, and with the possibility of more improvement to come, I seen no good reason to look elsewhere.
2.15pm Newbury
A five-furlong sprint is next on the list and with no real draw bias it’s a tough one to try and solve. Although we have only seen three three-year-old winners in the last 10 runnings they have won eight of the last 25 and they have at least two serious challengers this season courtesy of likely favourite Manaccan, a winner last time out at Doncaster, and my suggestion Mitbaahy, who is in the care of Roger Varian in Newmarket. I am willing to forgive him a poor effort at Goodwood where he was slowly away and didn’t seem to handle the track, and he is better judged on an unlucky second in July which followed wins at Hamilton and Sandown. He will need a career best here but seems likely to get a fast early pace he can attack from with a clear run, though I am wary of the older Tis Marvellous who looked back to his best when scoring last time out.
2.50pm Newbury
A decent enough Group Two contest named after the legend that was Mill Reef, but it does seem to have lost some of the gloss over recent years, and if we see a future classic winner here, I will be very surprised. Heroism is hard to know after his winning debut form was franked earlier in the week when runner-up Hello Deira scored for us at Redcar and he could take some beating, but I am going to take a risk on Wallop who has been quietly supported in the markets all week. It is a rare occurrence to see a maiden sent to this level for their second start, but the son of Harry Angel follows that path after his debut third at Newmarket in late July. An easy to back 11/1 chance that day, he was beaten less than two lengths at the line after weakening late on, and the form was boosted when the winner (Noble Style) easily won the Group Two Gimcrack Stakes at York, while runner-up Mill Stream was a solid fourth in the Acomb Stakes when failing to see out the seventh furlong. With improvement assured from his racecourse bow and rumours of some sparking work in recent weeks he looks worth a bet – though it is shame we don’t have eight runners for a place one two three.
3.05pm Ayr
I found it interesting to read that a high draw is seen as a bonus here at Ayr over six furlongs and then noting that five of the last 10 winners came out of stalls 4,5,7,8, and 9 – go figure! Queen Me will prove popular for obvious reasons, but more importantly, her form looks to make her very much the one to beat. A debut win at Haydock suggested she had plenty of ability, and she was immediately thrown in at the deep end in the Group Two Lowther Stakes at York where she went under by a neck to Swingalong with the third two and a half lengths adrift. She effectively drops in class here and as this is only her third start and she is learning all the time, and a clear run may well be all she needs to get back to winning ways.
3.40pm Ayr
I like to throw in in a handicap now and then as it gives me an excuse to go through the numbers and see what comes out the other end. In the last 25 runnings, so off we go! No winners have gone off bigger than 40/1, none have been older than six, none have carried more than nine stone ten, and only one has been officially rated lower than 89. All of the winners raced within the last 60 days, all bar one came from the first 17 in the betting, and all bar one had raced at least four times this season (interesting). Put all that in to the pot and we lose a big 16 runners and that’s a decent start. Of the nine left my next step is the trainers and of the seven left, only Kevin Ryan (five) Andrew Balding (two) and Richard Fahey (two) have won this race before. I can’t resist but to mess about with the forecasts and tricasts on Bergerac, Gis A Sub, Fivethousandtoone, Admiral D and Aleezdancer, but if I have to pick one (and I do), then my each way money would (will) be on Fivethousandtoone. Andrew Balding has won this twice from only ten runners, and he carries a 5lb penalty for winning at Goodwood last time out. I note that seven of the last 25 winners came here from Goodwood so that a positive, though the three stall possibly isn’t, but rules are there to be broken and at a decent price I am willing to take that risk – if only to the smallest of stakes.
3.55pm Gowran Park
With just shy of a mile and a quarter to travel for this Group Three event for fillies and mares, though the fact that only three of the 17 runners are rated over 100 says it all for a Group Three contest. Tranquil Lady is the obvious selection as the daughter of Australia takes a big drop in class after coming home sixth behind Tuesday in the Epsom Oaks and a last of nine placed eighth) in the Pretty Polly Stakes at The Curragh. In theory she ought to find this company far less testing, and I suspect we may see her on or near the pace from the start over this trip, though she is no good thing and I am very wary of her price. Those looking for an each way alternative could do a lot worse than Term Of Endearment who sports a hood for the first time, and is highly regarded inside the De Bromhead stable.
Sean’s suggestions:
Queen Me 3.05pm Ayr
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