Well, a good start to the seven days with McFabulous landing my main bet but plenty of deeply felt sadness with the passing of Khalid Abdullah at the age of 83. With all the tributes in the media, racing and otherwise, there is no need to go back over them here, but suffice to say his influence on the breed was, in my own opinion, second to none and we can but hope that a family member picks up the baton and continues the Juddmonte operation. Finding someone with the passion of the main man will be close to impossible, but while we await to see what unfolds over the months and years ahead, I would prefer a brief look back at just how many top class (not just good, but world berating) horses ran in his colours.
Showing my age, the first that springs to mind is Dancing Brave, forever labelled as the best horse to not win the Epsom Derby (I believe that honour goes to El Gran Senor but that’s another story). He was one of the best horses I saw in my misspent you, taking eight of his ten starts for Guy Harwood, including the 2000 Guineas, the Coral-Eclipse, The King George, and taking apart one of the strongest Arc fields ever assembled when appearing from a mile back to win going away at the line under Pat Eddery, with the likes of Bering, Triptych, Shardari, and Shahrastani trailing in his wake. With so many good horses to pick from (Quest For Fame, Commander in Chief, Kingman, the list is almost endless), I have decided to settle on just the three which to my horror means I consign the great mare Enable to the also rans list in my search for a trio of perfection. Arrogate has been passed over a little in some of the racing media but deserves a mention if only to remind us all of how his influence spanned the racing World. After wins in the Travers Stakes (track record), and the Breeders Cup Classic in 2016 he added the Pegasus World Cup (track record) and then the Dubai World Cup in 2017 (I was there and has a great chat with jockey Mike Smith post race thanks to Ron Wood for the Racing Post calling me over), and although never the same after that, he retired as the leading money earner of all-time thanks to those high profile successes. For me that was a real pinch yourself “I was there” moment, and I can’t help but add a link to the race here for those who missed it). Lastly, and obviously I admit, has to be Frankel. Although the subject of much disagreement with American and Australian journalists over the years, I have no hesitation in suggesting he is the best horse of my lifetime, and very probably of all time. I have never seen his like (and Yes I have seen Black Caviar, Winx, Enable and so on), with a turn of foot second to none, though I will agree it is a shame he didn’t travel to show his worth on the International scene, but with Sir Henry not in the best of health, that came as no great surprise to anyone. Standing with Henry and a few other scribes on the Newmarket gallops when the horse was little more than a promising juvenile remains the highlight of my entire racing life by some margin, leaving me with that difficult conundrum – will I ever see his like again and do I really want to? As well as the best racehorse I have witnessed he is going on to prove himself at stud as well leaving a mark on the entire bloodstock industry, though I cannot pretend I don’t miss him on the course – every race he ran as a simply exquisite moment in racing history.
While I am reminiscing and grinning from ear to ear with such happy memories (it happens with age I’m afraid) seems as good a time as any to look at the racing this weekend - not all that I am afraid to say, but every race has to have a winner….
Saturday Racing: (all cards subject to getting the go ahead sadly)
12.55pm Market Rasen
Gutted to see that a horse I have heard good things about no longer runs here and has presumable been diverted for better ground, but we still have a pretty competitive looking field and a double figure one at that (at the time of writing at least). With the last six winners starting at odds of 3/1 or less and plenty of successful favourites in the last ten years, the market seems a sensible place to start, and that leads me pretty quickly to Martello Sky, trained by Lucy Wadham and in the capable hands of Bryony Frost. A winner last time out at Fakenham (and a bumper winner there in February and again in October last year), she wasn’t disgraced when second here in March either, with the only real blip on her record a fifth at Cheltenham (again in a bumper), though the dead-heat winners that day both look out of the ordinary suggesting it was a decent contest. She won her debut over hurdles comfortably enough considering her hurdling left an awful lot to be desired (reversing Cheltenham form with Allavina), and if she improves for the experience as hoped, she ought to be very hard to beat here. Art Approval looks a very big danger after a pair of seconds, were followed by a solid four and a quarter length seventh at Cheltenham in a Class Three handicap and he is not to be underestimated in what looks a far weaker contest, and he only has to give a pound to the selection.
2.40pm Market Rasen
A furlong shy of three miles here but an interesting contest with three horses rated within a pound of each other when the weights are taken into account. I suppose you could make a solid case for the 149 rated Vision Des Flos who is the youngest of that trio at the age of eight, but the Colin Tizzard yard remain in and out of form in recent weeks and his thirty-five length ninth to Thyme Hill at Newbury in the Long Distance Hurdle may have occurred in a far better race, but he was still well beaten. Robbie Power reported he ran too freely that day to have any realistic chance, but as we can’t tell if he will try the same shenanigans again, he is hard to suggest as a betting medium this afternoon. On The Blind Side is the best horse here according to the official ratings (152), but Nicky Henderson’s nine-year-old has to give four pounds away to all his rivals while the yard aren’t exactly firing on all cylinders, by their lofty standards. He wasn’t disgraced when beaten in to second last weekend by the improving McFabulous where he had some better rated horses in behind, but there is a chance this could come too soon, and I will take the risk with Lil Rockerfeller for a Bryony Frost double. At the age of ten I suppose we can’t expect much if any further improvement, but he ran amazingly well when a length second at Newbury in late November after more than a year off the track, and as long as he doesn’t “bounce” for that, he could be the one to lead them home here in a race that really ought to fall to one of the three named.
3.15pm Market Rasen
Who would have thought that a mares only bumper at Market Rasen would be one of the most anticipated races of a Saturday afternoon, but one glance at the line-up and It clearly is exactly that! Having read earlier in the week that Willie Mullins would possibly send Grangee over for this contest I naively assumed she would be an odds on jolly here, but with five of the seven runners arriving unbeaten, and the other two placed last time out (one a beaten favourite), it looks more interesting than I could have hoped. Trainer Pam Sly bred owns and handles likely favourite Eileendover and after wide margin wins at Huntingdon and Wetherby, she is really living the dream with a livewire Cheltenham contender. A daughter of Canford Cliffs out of an Oasis Dream mare I doubt a National Hunt career was the original objective, but she has done exactly what has asked of her with ease and shown a decent turn of foot in the process, meaning it will take something out of the ordinary to beat her today. Grangee has a one out of one record after an eased down win at Galway on her debut on late October, but the third has been well beaten twice since as has the fifth and quite frankly, the form so far adds up to close to zero. Of course, she can do no more than beat those sent against her and I won’t be underestimating her for an instant, and to be fair, the Eileendover has hardly been franked yet either. Merry Mistress beat favourite Ballybough Mary on debut at Hereford and the runner-up has won since giving that form a better look leaving me sorely tempted to have a very small bet on Miss Lamb at a huge price. Unbeaten after success at Newcastle and then Wetherby, she looks the sort to keep on improving with experience and would surely be at shorter odds if housed in a more fashionable yard than Jedd O’Keeffe, so in a race where any of them can win, I will have a quid each way and watch for future reference.
2.15pm Fairyhouse
Don’t you just love it when someone writes in and asks me to cover an Irish handicap now and again- as if I don’t have enough problems with our own contests for goodness sake. Sixteen runners (so a place one two three four), but with a 10/1 winner last year the biggest price since 2013, let the market be your guide – to a point at least. Chatham Street Lad looks sure to top the betting come the off and is already having a spectacular season with wins at Ballinrobe, Cork, and most recently at Cheltenham when spreadeagling a class field to take the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup by an easy fifteen lengths. His rating here is ten pounds higher but he had that and more in hand on the day and jockey Simon Torrens claims back five pounds from the saddle today, and although I am loathed to take 9/4 or so in a big field handicap, he is by far the likeliest winner. Gordon Elliott has won three of the last four renewals and his representatives of Chosen Mate, Or Jaune de Somoza, and Bel Ami De Sivola all have each way chances with the last named particularly interesting after a solid second here in November, but the jolly looks hard to oppose which is a strange statement to make in a huge field handicap.
3.25pm Fairyhouse
Strange race conditions here see a balance between a novice and a handicap with an added pound for every pound above a rating of 114 and the expected five pound winners’ penalty for the last couple of days in addition to the age allowances – very strange but possibly the way forward for more competitive contests. All that adds up to a raceable mark of eleven stone three for multiple winner King Alex (successful at Ballinrobe, Navan, and Fairyhouse over hurdles before a second back at Navan), and having his first start over fences since joining Barry Connell. He has clearly improved for his new connections BUT was poorer than a church mouse in two starts over fences for Alan Fleming and is no good thing here if you have a look at those races. He may well make fools of us all with an easy win here, but that cannot be guaranteed, and I will be on Enjoy D’allen for Ciaran Murphy, with Conor Orr claiming a useful three pounds from the saddle. Placed in all four starts over fences for Peter Fahey with a solid neck second to Notice to Close last time out at Cork, he is now with his new handler who has added a tongue tie for the first time today, and at a forecast 7/1 or thereabouts he won’t be far away and should hopefully place at the very least.
1.50pm Warwick
Someone cleverer than me can quickly explain why the Irish fields seem to be holding up while back in the UK I have a three horse field to moan about? I made a mistake last time Next Destination ran by ignoring his chances and of course, he duly came home a comfortable length and a quarter clear of One For The team at Newbury over half a furlong or so shorter. Considering that was his first start over fences he out in an exemplary round which certainly caught me off guard, and the softer the ground the better for his chances this weekend, which seems pretty likely looking out of the window. Fidderlontheroof would be a massive danger at his best and in receipt of five pounds, though whether he will get the three miles is very much open to question. His best hurdling form incudes a win in the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown over two miles while his chases have seen a win over two miles three at Exeter and places over up to two miles five, but with precious little sign this extended trip will bring the needed improvement. Golan Fortune looks outclassed and will pick up £2568 if he comes home last, though we all know what they say about backing the outsider in a three horse field.
2.25pm Warwick
Nine of the twelve novices entered here came home in front last time out and that shows us we have an ultra-competitive event to work on regardless of what the bookies say! Make Me A Believer heads the early market for David Pipe after a staying on length win over half a mile shorter at Cheltenham in December, and on his first start since wind surgery. He may well improve again for just his second start in a year, but at 100/30, I can let him run unbacked. Adrimel sits next in the betting and is hard to knock after wins at Haydock and then Sandown but it is interesting to see Tom Lacy’s charge wearing first time cheekpieces as he steps up in trip and there has to be the fear they could set him alight too early and test his stamina and I will take an each way chance on Jay Bee Why who is sorely tempting at 8/1. Trained by Alan King, he won a three mile point to point at Loughanmore before being sold for £68,000 and unsurprisingly finding two miles on the sharp side in a Newbury bumper in January 2020 – after all, he is a son of Yeats! Upped to this course and distance for his hurdling debut after a wind operation, he won very easily at odds of 14/1 despite looking as if the race would do him good, and with that race likely to bring him on he ought to go well here and give us a race for our money.
3.00pm Warwick
The best handicap of the day and therefore worth a mention at the very least, though finding the winner will be anything but easy. Naturally I started by looking to profile the race and found quickly that no six-year-old has won this in the last 19 runnings (there aren’t any), nor any horse older than twelve (ditto), so not a lot to help us there! No horse priced less than 9/2 (nothing doing) or over 50/1 (the outsider at present is 33/1), offers zero assistance, and only the one horse who completed and came home worse than fifth which gets rid of a huge four (of the thirteen declared - ouch!). One winner over 20/1 lets me wave goodbye to Red Infantry as well, and only the two rated over 140 (so farewell to Walk In The Mill, The Hollow Ginge, and Storm Control), and I am now down to five potential winners, though to be fair I have zero confidence and feel like I am clutching at straws. Le Breuil, Notachance, Late Romantic, Achille and Django Django fit those rules, though three have tried to take this after over a year off -and none have succeeded, so delete Achille if you follow the stats. Only one has ever scored after more than 60 days off the course so I can even put a line through Notachance, and if the winner comes from the three left, I will be a very happy (and surprised) bunny). If I had to pick one (and I suppose I do), then at least Le Breuil has won off a mark five pounds higher than he shoulders today (albeit it back in March 2019), he stays forever (that was over two and a half furlongs further), has won on the predicted soft ground, has had a wind operation, and represents a yard with a 25% strike rate in the last two weeks – plenty to like and my suggestion here, though the 6/1 seems pretty mean in a field of this size.
Sunday
12.50pm Punchestown
A two and a half mile novice chase to start the day and one where the only real question I can see is whether or not Envoi Allen can give eleven pounds of weight away to his five rivals. If he really is “the second coming” as they seem to think in Irish racing circles, then the answer has to be a resounding yes, with main rival Asterion Forlonge a far dodgier jumper, and liable to make enough mistakes to cook his goose. Envoi Allen, on the other hand, has been exemplary at his fences so far and has barely touched a twig, but it should be noted that there was only a pound between them over hurdles so this might not be the cakewalk the odds suggest at these weights. The others all have something to find according to my figures (though we can expect more from Fils D’oudairies who could shake them up in this ground), and I will be watching rather than betting with zero value in the market at the predicted odds of 1/3 the jolly, and 5/2 the second favourite.
1.20pm Punchestown
A two mile novice hurdle to round off our weekly musings and one named after the top class Moscow Flyer, winner of the Arkle in 2002, the Champion Chase on 2003, and the same race again in 2005 – some record, though I am still confused why they have named a novice hurdle after him and not a chase? The fact that four-timer seeking Dreal Deal is forecast to go off at 8/1 tells you exactly how competitive this event is, on paper at least, and the winner will probably be well worth adding to your notebooks barring a farcical renewal, of course. Master McShee looks a possible favourite at this early stage after hacking up in a handicap last time out at Leopardstown when giving weight to the next four home and I couldn’t blame anyone for getting involved with the six-year-old who looks a decent enough price regardless on that showing. Willie Mullins’ once raced Ganapathi is helping to make the market for my suggestion after winning his first start after arriving from France when successful in a maiden at Cork, but he failed to impress me that day and has to do a lot more in this company. I even wonder if Echoes In Rain may be the better of the Mullins trio (time will tell) and she did well in a strange race last time out at Naas and should be far happier if given an early lead, but she can pull a bit and is not necessarily one to trust until she learns to settle better – though today could yet be the day the penny drops.
Tired of reading – go to our free to listen to podcast instead here https://postracing.co.uk/2021/01/15/khalid-adbulla-rip-and-we-have-10-races-covered-for-this-weekend-at-market-rasen-warwick-and-two-meetings-in-ireland/
Sean’s Suggestions:
Sorry but not in this ground, hopefully next week.
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