ALL VIEWS ARE MY OWN, RIGHT OR WRONG!
The World seems an incredibly busy place lately with more meetings about the Gambling Act review, follow up debates, oh and the day job of course, plus a wedding to go to last weekend – and I thought hitting 60 meant I could start to take life easy – I wish.
My little brain can only cope with so much so three chats this week before we move on to the live racing on ITV, starting with the passing of Edward Hide. The younger among you will probably not know who I am talking about, but although he never manged to be crowned Champion jockey, he did win the title “Cock of the North” 16 times between 1957 and 1983 for the most wins from a jockey based in the North of England, and whe4n he retired in 1986, he sat in sixth place for the most winners by any British jockey – ever. As a young punter I remember him as a jockey you could rely on, unlike some who dropped their hands once a win was out of the question (frustrating when you like to bet each way or in placepots) which made him a personal favourite, and I cannot remember ever hearing a bad word said against him. Add in six classics including an Oaks on Pia in 1957 and a Derby on Morston in 1973 (both before my betting time, amazingly), the only Classic he failed to land was the 2000 Guineas and although 86 when he passed, his career in the saddle does deserve a long mention as one of the all-time greats.
While we are on the subject of jockeys, what do we all think of the sacking (or letting go) - by text – of Kevin Stott by Amo Racing, also known as Kia Joorabchian, the Iranian born football wheeler dealer who likes to be seen as the piper who calls the tune by all accounts. I don’t know him, I haven’t met him, but if he sacks his staff by text I don’t think I want to either, but allegedly Kevin’s ride on King Of Steel at Leopardstown was the final straw if nothing else. Now I have watched a replay of the race, start to finish, at least a dozen times (that’s 12 to the younger generation), and I can’t see a lot more he could have done. The horse was pulling too hard too early and sweating and if he had been sent after the pacemakers I feel he would have been swamped regardless, to Kevin bided his time to allow him to settle. Personally (and I am not a jockey), I felt he don’t quicken up as hoed when asked to go about his business but he was not disgraced in fourth by any means and to be sacked for that in that playground manner isn’t what I like to see in our sport, old-fashioned as that may label me.
Lastly for this week and what do we all think of Auguste Rodin – superstar or bang average middle-distance performer? His record is chequered to put it politely this season with a 22 length 12th in the English 2000 Guineas followed by wins in the English and Irish Derbies, a horrendous 127 length last in the King George at Ascot – and a win in the Irish Champion Stakes last weekend when he saw off stable companion Luxembourg by half a length, remembering his rival was rated 2lb his inferior and received 6lb. Personally, I think he is very good, and I would consider him for the Breeders Cup which seems sure to be his next target (once I see the rest of the field of course), but he clearly isn’t the world-beater we were once told or if he is, he has more character flaws than me, and that’s saying something.
On to the racing
Saturday Racing
1.50pm Doncaster
We have seen some high-class winners of this contest including Chaldean last year, who went on to take the 2000 Guineas, Chindit in 2020 (who won the Superior Mile last weekend) and Sussex Stakes and Prix Jean Prat winner Too Darn Hot in 2018, so it seems safe to suggest you need to be pretty decent to come home in front. As we have only had a single winner priced larger than 5/1 in the last 10 years and none at a double figure price, it makes sense to focus our attentions near the head of the market, and with five winning favourites and a joint-favourite, and Richard Hannon taking this three times in the last nine years, all roads seem to lead to Rosallion. He arrives unbeaten after wins at Newbury and then at Ascot in Listed class and on official ratings, that makes him the best horse here by 11lb or more. There is a question mark over the softer ground which he hasn’t faced before but as a son of Blue Point that should not be an issue and although he won’t be a sensible price, he seems by far the likeliest winner.
2.05pm Chester
A mile and a half Listed contest to cope with next and although we have only seen two three-year-old winners in the last 10 runnings, they have taken five of the last 16 for the highest strike rate by age grouping. That may well be largely down to the 7lb they get from their elders (depending on sex, of course), and if the odds trend continues, of no winners bigger than 9/1 in all 16 runnings, then we can stick a line through six of the seven runners! Bluestocking was only beaten three and a half lengths in the Yorkshire Oaks (Group One) last time out and if she can repeat that she really ought to prove hard to beat dropped into this class, though I do have a slight concern that one win from five starts doesn’t inspire that much confidence in her desire to get to the front at the business end and my bet size will be reduced accordingly.
2.25pm Doncaster
My podcast colleague Ron Robinson loves these handicaps, and anyone who knows me will be aware they are not my up of tea (and I don’t even like tea). I find it hard enough to work out the best horse in a race BEFORE someone adds in different weights to make life more difficult, but we soldier on regardless eh? As you will have already noticed I am in a stats kind of mood, and the first thing I noted was that Chipstead won this last year – before being disqualified and placed second. In the 26 runnings on my database we are yet to see a winner from stalls 1-4 which is interesting if not definitive, while none rated below 89 have come home in front – for what that is worth. 90 six-year-olds have tried their luck and not one has been successful, but after that I need to look at those left (plenty of them) to define a suggestion. With 12 gone (if only the stats were guaranteed), we “only” have 10 left to work, with so my next stop is the trainers form in this race. Annaf can go well for Mick Appleby (two places from four runners) as can Dusky Lord for Stuart Williams (five runners for a winner and a place), but I will take a chance on Get It for George Baker. His five starts have seen four places which suggests the selection has a solid each way shout, and after winning at Wolverhampton last time out off 4lb lower, he has to be the one (each way) with the booking of Tom Marquand to ride a bit of a bonus.
2.40pm Chester
Just what I needed, a Class Three handicap over ten and a half furlongs at Chester next, and with a low draw seen as an advantage even over this longer trip, I will be looking there for the winner. According to the Racing Post there have been no previous runnings so I have preferred to a similar race and found that in the last 22 renewals of that race (which I think is the same one, by the way), 17 winners came from stall one to four and I see that as a pretty high figure for a race over this trip. Add in a top-eight finish for 19 of the 22 winners, a race within the last 120 days for all of them, and we are left with Arthur’s Realm or Baryshnikov, both at double figure prices. It is a tough call between them (because I don’t really fancy anything in this race), but at least Baryshnikov has won here off 4lb higher on similar ground over this trip in May 2022, and that may give him the smallest of edges.
3.00pm Doncaster
A Group Two over seven-furlongs next at least stops me bitching about handicaps, and with Kinross winning this last year, we know it takes a good one to get to the front where it really matters. Small fields are the norm, and although we haven’t seen a winner drawn higher than 10 in the last 26 runnings, only 10 have tried so I am not sure how much that particular fact is really worth. For that reason I will revert to the old-fashioned method of form study, and that leads me to the chances of Audience, beaten less than a length by the aforementioned Kinross at York in the Group Two City Of York Stakes last month. Rab Havlin keeps the ride and is an absolute kingpin of the Gosden operation and although I can just about see why others fancy Spycatcher, my selection is officially 6lb the better horse and if he handles the softer ground, then he ought to have his beating.
3.35pm Doncaster
I may be the only one who finds it sad to see the fifth and final classic passing us by as in another year gone, and with the winner more likely to take up post-racing duties at a National Hunt Stud, the gloss has been taken off the St Leger in the last 30 years or so with speed the only thing buyers seem interested in these days. What we do know is in the last 26 runnings, every winner here had finished in the first four last time out (15 of them as a winner), which may not help too much, but it is a start. Of those with runners here Aidan O’Brien is the most successful trainer with six winners and nine places followed by the Gosdens, with four winners and four places but from far less runners. To no-one’s great surprise the two stables are, at the time of writing, responsible for a ridiculous seven of the nine runners, with Frankie Dettori on board current favourite Arrest for the Gosdens. I do feel he has every chance but although I have been around long enough to take quotes from Ballydoyle and Coolmore with a pinch of salt, I felt a good deal of confidence behind Continuous. Ryan Moore is expected to take the ride (not confirmed as I type), and after the son of Heart’s Cry burst the bubble of when winning by four lengths in the Great Voltigeur, he will do for me in a race where the two stable’s domination is frankly embarrassing.
OMMS
Something for the weekend Sean’s Suggestion:
Continuous 3.35pm Doncaster
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